User ID
Password
  Forgot User ID
or Register Today!
VegasInsider.com
Follow Us on Facebook Follow Us on Twitter Follow Us on Google+ VI Mobile Scores and Betting Odds
Home
NFL
NBA
NHL
MLB
NCAA FB
NCAA BK
Golf
Auto Racing
Horses
Boxing/MMA
More
Betting Tools

 
2012 Season Recap - Part III

New Sportsbook.com customers: Make your 1st bet, get your 2nd bet free, 100%, winnings paid in cash.
Join Now

Already have an account? Click here to view new Exclusive Rewards!

   

Editor's Note: The Sports Boss was the third-best NFL handicapper (61%, +1,808) on VegasInsider.com in 2012. Sign up now for his discounted 2013 season package!

Part I · Part II · Part III
In this article I will discuss some of the more profitable 2012 ATS trends some find useful as part of their handicapping exercise. I particularly do not hold a lot of value in using these trends, but no question they can add value as a small piece of the handicapping puzzle – in particular, looking for team’s that have not had a lot of personnel turnover, especially focusing on coaching staff’s and QB’s. Overall, I consider four years to be the absolute max trends such as this do stay somewhat relevant, but that estimation is flexible depending on many factors.

Legend: home favorites (HF), home underdogs (HD), road favorites (RF), road underdogs (RD)

2012 NFL Profitable ATS Trends
AFC 2008-2011 2012
NFC ATS RESULTS ATS RESULTS
TEAM TREND W/L WIN % NOTES W/L WIN % NOTES
*NE RD 6-2 75% - 1-0 100% -
*NYJ HF 11-16 41% - 2-3 40% -
*NYJ HD 4-1 80% W 4 of 5 SU 1-2 33% W 0 of 3 SU
*PIT RF 8-12 40% - 1-4 20% -
*PIT HD 2-0 100% W 2 of 2 SU - - -
*PIT RD 7-4 64% - 2-1 67% W 2 of 3 SU
*BAL HF 17-10 63% W 25 of 27 SU 2-4 33% W 5 of 6 SU
*BAL RD 10-7 59% - 1-3 25% W 0 of 4 SU
*NYG HF 12-16 43% - 4-4 50% W 6 of 8 SU
*NYG Road 18-13 58% - 4-4 50% W 3 of 8 SU
*DAL HF 12-17 41% - 0-6 0% W 3 of 6 SU
*DAL RF 6-10 38% - 2-1 67% W 2 of 3 SU
*DAL Favorite 18-27 40% - 2-7 22% W 5 of 9 SU
*GB HF 17-11 61% - 5-3 63% W 7 of 8 SU
*GB RF 12-9 57% - 3-3 50% -
*GB Favorite 29-20 59% - 8-6 57% -
*GB HD 3-0 100% - - - -
*GB RD 7-5 58% - 1-1 50% -
*GB Underdog 10-5 67% - 1-1 50% -
*GB Road 19-14 58% - 4-4 50% -
*GB Home 20-11 65% - 5-3 63% -
*ATL HF 19-8 70% - 4-4 50% W 7 of 8 SU
*ATL RF 9-5 64% - 3-2 60% W 4 of 5 SU
*ATL Favorite 28-13 68% - 7-6 54% W 11 of 13 SU
*SD RF 6-15 29% - 1-1 50% -
*SD RD 8-3 73% W 6 of 11 SU 4-2 67% W 3 of 6 SU
*PHI RD 6-3 67% W 5 of 9 SU 3-3 50% W 1 of 6 SU
CHI RF 5-2 71% - 3-2 60% W 4 of 5 SU
CHI RD 8-14 36% - 1-2 33% W 1 of 3 SU
*NO HF 19-9 68% W 24 of 28 SU 2-3 40% W 2 of 5 SU
*NO Favorite 30-18 63% - 4-4 50% W 4 of 8 SU
MIA HF 7-12 37% - 2-2 50% -
MIA HD 4-8 33% - 2-1 67% -
MIA Home 11-20 35% - 4-3 57% -
MIA RD 19-7 73% -W 13 of 26 SU 2-5 29% W 2 of 7 SU
BUF HF 6-10 38% - 4-2 67% -
CIN HF 5-11 31% - 2-3 40% W 3 of 5 SU
CLE HF 3-7 30% - 1-1 50% -
IND RF 11-5 69% - 2-0 100% -
JAC HF 6-11 35% - 0-1 0% -
JAC HD 6-9 40% - 2-5 29% W 1 of 7 SU
JAC Home 12-20 38% - 2-6 25% -
JAC RD 11-16 41% - 5-3 63% W 1 of 8 SU
JAC Underdog 17-25 40% - 7-8 47% -
DEN HF 2-15 12% - 5-2 71% W 7 of 7 SU
KC HF 3-10 23% - 0-1 0% -
KC RF 1-2 33% - - - -
KC Favorite 4-12 25% - 0-1 0% -
KC RD 18-11 62% - 2-6 25% -
KC HD 11-8 58% - 3-4 43% -
KC Underdog 29-19 60% - 5-10 33% -
WAS HF 2-8 20% - 3-2 60% W 3 of 5 SU
MIN RD 9-13 41% - 3-3 50% W 3 of 6 SU
TB HD 2-12 14% W 2 of 14 SU 1-1 50% -
TB RD 16-12 57% - 6-1 86% W 3 of 7 SU
CAR RF 5-0 100% - 1-2 33% W 1 of 3 SU
CAR Favorite 17-9 65% - 2-4 33% W 1 of 3 SU
CAR HD 3-7 30% - 2-3 40% W 2 of 5 SU
CAR RD 10-17 37% - 5-0 100% W 3 of 5 SU
CAR Underdog 13-24 35% W 9 of 37 SU 7-3 70% W 5 of 10 SU
SF HF 15-6 71% W 17 of 21 SU 3-5 38% W 6 of 8 SU
SF RD 12-8 60% - 2-1 67% W 2 of 3 SU
SEA RD 9-19 32% - 3-1 75% W 2 of 4 SU
STL HD 11-15 42% - 4-2 67% W 4 of 6 SU
STL RD 12-18 40% - 7-1 88% W 3 of 8 SU
STL Underdog 23-33 41% W 9 of 56 SU 11-3 79% W 7 of 14 SU


*Indicates teams I identified before last season where I felt these ATS trends would be of the highest relevance.

Review & Analysis of 2012 Regular Season results

This analysis once again proved to be profitable and spot on for the most part, adding to our successful preview articles we published before last season.

In the matrix above I have split the teams in three buckets:

-- The first bucket (NE, NYJ, PIT, BAL, NYG, DAL, GB, ATL) were teams I identified where these ATS trends were reliable, and these teams did not suffer any last second changes to their status before the 2012 regular season began

-- The second bucket (SD, PHI, CHI, NO) consists of three teams I identified as having reliable ATS trends going into the 2012 season, but they had either a significant event occur last season or this past offseason which shifts them down a notch from the first bucket teams

-- The third bucket is the remaining NFL teams and they all have not had enough consistency in key areas of their franchise to make these ATS trends too reliable when using them in a vacuum

When examining the first bucket teams, which are the teams these trends hold the highest significance with, the results were extremely favorable if you had strictly bet in the situations mentioned. Overall this group had 11 winning trends vs. 4 losing trends, a solid, profitable performance (when calculating the 11-4 mark I have removed all trends where there were no instances in 2012 such as Pittsburgh as a home underdog, and also removed all situations where a team went exactly .500 during the 2012 regular season in a specific trend – for example the New York Giants went 4-4 as home favorites & in road games).

Advertisement
Of the eight teams listed in the first bucket, New England, Pittsburgh, Green Bay and Atlanta all did not have a losing record in any one trend I identified, while the Giants went .500 in both so they were a wash; on the flip side Super Bowl Champions Baltimore Ravens posted a losing ATS record in both trends I identified for them, while the New York Jets and Dallas each posted one losing trend mark (both of which were just one game under .500). In summary of the first bucket teams we can see there are clear indicators of success or failure when simply breaking their ATS records into four high level categories (HF, HD, RF, RD) – which intuitively makes sense because these are some of the more stable, successful franchises in the NFL and their performance in certain spots over the years is more consistent than some may think.

Moving down to the second bucket teams, which is the last bucket we would suggest using trends such as these, there was more success as this group posted a mark of 3 winning trends vs. 1 losing trend. Chicago posted a perfect 2-0 mark as they performed well as a road favorite (a spot they have been solid in over 2008 to 2011 going 5-2 ATS), and they also performed subpar as a road underdog (a spot they have been losing in over 2008 to 2011 going just 8-14 ATS); San Diego continued playing well as a RD moving to 12-5 ATS over the last 5 full regular seasons; and New Orleans was the lone losing proposition in this bucket as they posted just a 2-3 mark as a HF, an area they typically excelled posting a 19-9 mark from 2008 to 2011. One key point in this grouping is all these teams either suffered a change of status before last season started (after I posted this article last summer), or over this most recent offseason:

San Diego: Fired Head Coach Norv Turner, new HC is former Denver Offensive Coordinator Mike McCoy

Philadelphia: Fired HC Andy Reid, new HC is former Oregon HC Chip Kelly

Chicago: Fired HC Lovie Smith, new HC is former CFL HC & NFL OC Marc Trestman

New Orleans: Lost HC Sean Payton for the 2012 regular season due to suspension; he returns in 2013

The third bucket, which includes the remaining 20 NFL teams has not had enough consistency in key areas across the team and organization for these types of trends to hold a lot of relevance. However, teams can slide up or down going into any season – more on this when we post our 2013 ATS Trends article, which will be coming out shortly.

Here we reviewed another preview article we posted heading into the 2012 regular season, and once again we hit a HOME RUN by identifying key & profitable ATS trends, properly grouping teams where they were relevant, leading to more winnings for our followers. Of the five losing trends we identified from teams in the first two buckets, three were just one game below .500, and the other pair were just two games below .500 – extremely close to being winners as well!

  
HEADLINES
News: Johnny Football Props
News: CG posts 2014 Win Totals
Jets sign former Titans RB Chris Johnson
Giants sign QB Josh Freeman as backup
Backup QB Flynn returns to Packers
Judge again rejects NFL's $765M deal
Chad Johnson takes steps toward CFL
Vikings praise Zimmer's passion
Lions having 'productive' talks with Suh
MORE HEADLINES
 
Why Buy Picks From VegasInsider.com
NFL Pro Football Handicapper Sports Picks Records
VegasInsider.com Gold Membership
2013 NFL SEASON PICK RECORDS
Money Leaders
Handicapper Money
Joe Nelson + 1340
Chip Chirimbes + 1286
The Gold Sheet + 1262
Last Week's Leaders
Handicapper Money
Mike Rose + 200
Pat Hawkins + 120
Chip Chirimbes + 100
Percentage Leaders
Handicapper Pct
Joe Nelson 60 %
The SportsBoss 59 %
The Gold Sheet 59 %
Guaranteed Leaders
Handicapper Money
Joe Nelson + 805
The Gold Sheet + 713
Scott Pritchard + 615
Over-Under Leaders
Handicapper Money
Dave Cokin + 400
Joe Williams + 324
Tony Stoffo + 203
Member Leaders
Handicapper Money
ASA + 670
The SportsBoss + 385
Brian Edwards + 337
MORE PICK RECORDS
  
corner graphic
With a VI Gold Membership, you can SAVE 10% off a Live Odds subscription, SAVE 20% off Daily Pick packages, and recieve access to up to 1,000 Member Plays each month!