Inside the Stats
October 10, 2013
By Marc Lawrence
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Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.
Here are this week’s findings…
When a team has been out gained in each of its three previous games I refer to them as ‘leaking oil’.
Like a bad engine not hitting on all cylinders, they not only burn combustion but money as well, especially when cast in to the role of a favorite.
There have been six college football and three NFL teams that have been installed as ‘leaking oil’ favorites this season. Collectively they are 1-8 ATS (0-6 CFB; 1-2 NFL).
Last week saw Southern Mississippi (-16) and the Miami Dolphins (-3) laying points. They both lost the whole game, straight up.
This week’s Pennzoil plays would be against:
NCAAFB: Arkansas State, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Troy
5-0 Fat Cats
It’s the time of the season in which undefeated teams in the world of College Football begin entertaining ideas of playing in the coveted BCS title game – especially those squads that have managed to open the season with five consecutive wins in their first five games.
Forewarned is forearmed, however, when it comes to ‘playing on’ these 5-0 clubs as Game Six is often times a major chuckhole on the road to the BCS title game for these Fat Cats. That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, these teams are 260-112-6 straight up and 161-186-5 against the spread overall. Hence, the bubble bursts over 30% of the time in Game Six situations for teams that start the season on a 5-0 note.
Worse, if these guys find themselves either pick or favored in a conference game, they dip to 62-88-3 ATS.
The week’s list of ‘Fat Cats’ includes the likes of:
Saturday: Clemson, Northern Illinois, Oklahoma, Oregon, Texas Tech
And if these same ‘Fat Cats’ won 10 or fewer regular season games last season, and are off a spread win of 9 or more points in their last game, they fall to 14-34-1 ATS, including 3-16 ATS if they are home and allowed 21 or fewer points in their last game.
As one of our all time favorite bands – the Traveling Wilburys – once said, it just might be the ‘End Of The Line’ for the Red Raiders and the Tigers this weekend.
As you know we enjoy examining teams who won their most recent game on the scoreboard, but lost the yards on the stat sheet.
We call it winning games ‘inside-out’.
When their opponent suffered a loss, yet won the stats, these become double-entendres – or matchups of two teams off completely opposite SU and ITS (In The Stats) results.
No less the FIVE games dot the NFL schedule this week involving double-entendres.
They include (with the game loser/stat winner listed first):
The Chargers/Colts clash features both teams off 100-yard ‘inside-out’ results.
Highs and Lows
Las week there were some really HIGH scoring games (99 points in Dallas, 62 points in Indianapolis, 61 points in Cleveland) and some LOW scoring games (19 points in Cincinnati, 28 points in Arizona, 31 points in Green Bay).
After five weeks the oddsmakers have done a very good job balancing out their Totals, with 40 Overs and 37 Unders.
The best ‘Over’ situations have been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC), going 19-8 ‘Over’ on the season – including 4-1 ‘Over’ last week.
Green Bay at Baltimore
Detroit at Cleveland
St. Louis at Houston
Tennessee at Seattle
New Orleans at New England
Stat Of The Week
USC interim head coach Ed Orgeron was 0-23 straight up overall in games versus .500 or greater opponents as a head coach at Ole Miss.
12-3 Totals TY, 23-11 L34 Picks
6-1 L7 Guarantees, 3-1 L4 Totals
10-4 L14 G-Plays, 20-9 Totals TY
17-8 L25, 20-10 This Year
10-1 Guaranteed Play Streak
3-1 Sunday, 4-1 L5 Over/Unders
2-0 Sunday, 3-1 L4 Selections
6-3 Last 9 NFL Selections
3-1 Sunday, 4-1 Over/Unders TY
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