Betting on Brees
August 10, 2017
Are The Saints Grounding Brees?
Fantasy players across the world want to know if Drew Brees is going to be a monster on the stat sheet again. In any other year, it’s usually a given. The 17-year veteran is a remarkably consistent pigskin pusher throwing for an average of 5,140.8 and 39.8 touchdowns over the last six seasons. So when BetOnline.ag releases NFL Individual Stat markets that attempt to project Brees’s ungodly numbers, there’s a fun intersection of gambling and fantasy football.
The market for Brees sets his passing yard total at 4,999.5 with a touchdown total of 33.5 for this upcoming season. Compared to his averages, and his mind boggling 2016 numbers alone, that seems to be a bit low. The interesting part is that the betting marks for his passing yards indicate a favorite. To bet the OVER here, which means he’d have to throw for at least 5,000 yards you get even money at +100. The UNDER is listed at -130.
Which means that the BetOnline.ag oddsmakers think that Brees is more likely to have a bit of a down year for him. What’s pointing them in this direction? The answer is pretty simple.
The arrival of Adrian Peterson, combined with the fact that New Orleans kept Mark Ingram and fullback John Kuhn lean towards the idea that the Saints are more than willing to diversify their attack. Needless to say, it’s about goddamn time.
The Saints have always been one of the best passing attacks in the league, and I don’t think they’ll miss Brandin Cooks as much as the New England Patriots will appreciate having him. Michael Thomas was a breakout talent last season with 1,137 yards and 9 touchdowns, emerging as the new-age Marques Colston-type target that Brees loves.
The rest of the receiving corps is a smattering of underscored pass catchers like Willie Snead, who are totally fine given that Brees is their quarterback. That guy can turn anyone in to a fantasy dynamo and rack up huge numbers for himself in the process, but the Saints haven’t actually benefited all that much from it.
New Orleans has endured three straight 7-9 SU seasons and missed the playoffs every single time. Maybe they just haven’t recovered from Marshawn Lynch’s insane, earthquake inducing touchdown.
No team in the NFL has been necessarily scared of New Orleans attacking on the ground. They averaged the 16th most yards last year with Ingram and Cadet, but adding Peterson is a very interesting decision. I know that running-backs in this league have short lifespans, and that anyone over the age of 29 is usually on the downside of their career. But I think Adrian Peterson is an exception to the rule.
Wagering on Brees’s production in the NFL futures markets at BetOnline.ag depends entirely on if you think Peterson can pull his weight. To be fair, he’s only played in 20 games over the past three years. He last two games in 2016 before being basically shelved for the remainder of the season (he returned in mid-December for Week 15 and was barely a factor).
Bringing on Peterson for a 2-year, $7M deal is a great gamble by the Saints. He’s what they’ve been missing. And the last time Peterson played with a truly great quarterback was way back in 2009 when Brett Favre arrived in Minneosta. Favre passed for 4,202 yards, 33 touchdowns and 7 yards while Peterson was a menace with 1,383 yards and 18 scores of his own. If the idea is that Peterson and Ingram can keep each other healthy by spelling one another, then the workload on Brees becomes far less dramatic.
It would be lunacy to bet on the Saints to win the Super Bowl too, let alone the division. The Panthers, Falcons and Bucs all measure out as better teams. So if you want to get in on a long-term bet on the Saints, the best place to look is Brees’s Individual Stats.
Brees launching passes like he’s in a video game is a gameplan that hasn’t worked well for New Orleans. He’s certainly not to blame for their woes because the defence needs to be better. The defence was pretty much the worst in the league last year, and let them down time and again in important games. So naturally Brees has to pick up some slack.
The UNDER feels like a strong take given the arrival of Peterson, but this can also work both ways. Peterson is a very good pass-catcher out of the backfield. In 2015 he was targeted 36 times. More importantly, when Favre was in town he was targeted 57 times.
To put this in perspective, Aaron Rodgers has a total of 4,440.5 yards to eclipse in his Individual Stats bet while Andy Dalton has 4,200.5 yards. The idea of Brees breaching that illustrious 5,000 yard plateau feels a bit ridiculous especially given the decision of the Saints’ brass to ship out Cooks and bring in Peterson. The UNDER for Brees is most likely the best futures wager you can make on the Saints.
BetOnline.ag is working hard to put up crazy fun NFL Futures like Individual Stats! Head over to the sportsbook now to get primed for the 2017 NFL Season! Bet on Drew Brees and more at BetOnline.ag!
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