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The answer is nothing. The undefeated Indianapolis Colts have done nothing wrong to be home underdogs on Sunday.
It’s just that they’re playing a team from another world – the New England Patriots.
Oddsmakers opened New England minus four at Indianapolis. As it turns out, the number was short. By late Monday afternoon, the Patriots were up to minus five and 5 ½. One prominent Internet book even had New England at minus six.
“It virtually is unheard of for an undefeated Super Bowl champion to be getting more than a field goal at home,” said Mike Seba, senior oddsmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
The Colts have won an NFL-high 12 straight games. They are 3-0 against the spread at home, winning these matchups by an average of 22 points. They have won and covered their past three meetings against New England, including twice last season.
Yet the Patriots trump the Colts by easily winning and covering all of their games this year. Bill Belichick’s take-no-prisoners approach has resulted in six of those pointspread covers coming by 13 points or more.
It seemed like Belichick wanted to punish all those Redskins bettors who wagered New England down from minus 16 ½ to 14 ½ by running up the score against the helpless Redskins.
The Patriots are winning their games by an average score of 41.3 to 15.8. Tom Brady has an obscene 30-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio while leading the NFL in passing. Randy Moss has 11 touchdown receptions.
Professional gamblers have been avoiding taking the Patriots because the lines have been so high. Not this week. The question now becomes how high will the line go once the public gets involved?
“I don’t think it will close six,” Seba said. “That’s a key number.”
But if the wiseguys are laying 4 1/2, five and 5 ½, they’re not going to double around and take the Colts at plus six. Bookmakers have been thankful, so far, that only the public has been winning each week on New England.
Things are shaping up that this is finally the week where the whole world is on New England. The good news for the house is they finally get to root for the Colts, another big-public team. The bad news, of course, is they’re against the Patriots.
New England also has gone ‘over’ in seven of its eight games. Oddsmakers opened the Patriots-Colts total at 56 anticipating a shootout. The Colts won 27-20 at New England last year and 38-34 at home in the AFC title game.
“If it gets up to 58 it sure would be hard to pass on the ‘under,’” Seba said.
Following New England’s 52-7 dismantling of Washington, Las Vegas bookmakers lowered the Patriots’ Super Bowl odds down to 5/9. They also raised the Super Bowl line to AFC being favored by two touchdowns.
That would be a bargain if the Patriots reached the Super Bowl playing like they are now.
Other notable Week 9 NFL lines are Buffalo favored against Cincinnati. Cleveland favored against Seattle and Oakland laying points for only the third time in its last 25 games.
“It’s amazing how far Cincinnati has dropped,” Seba said. “I was thinking of them as a Super Bowl contender before the season.”
The Bengals have far more firepower than the Bills. It remains to be seen, though, how much heart the Bengals have. They are a mentally fragile team that could implode.
Because of the Derek Anderson to Braylon Edwards combination, which has resulted in nine touchdowns since Week 2, nobody is laughing at the Browns anymore.
San Francisco has been one of the most disappointing teams in the NFC. The 49ers, losers of five in a row, find themselves three-point underdogs to the one-win Atlanta Falcons.
“It tells you how bad San Francisco is,” Seba said, adding he made the line Atlanta minus 2 ½ because he couldn’t make any team a 3-point favorite that starts Joey Harrington.