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Premier League Matchday 1 Picks, Predictions, Odds

Andrew Beasley
Andrew Beasley Sports Betting Expert
2 minute read

The dawn of the 2023 English Premier League season ignites a fresh blaze of anticipation across footballing landscapes and for bettors, it brings instant action for the early risers.

Each week, I'll be offering up my Picks & Predictions for a handful of games in the Premier League with hopes of cashing winners.

Let's get right to the games!

Premier League Matchday 1 Picks

Odds Provided by bet365 - Subject to Change

Premier League Matchday 1 Predictions

This week's Matchday 1 Predictions will focus on five matches, three of them on Saturday.

Arsenal vs. Nottingham Forest

Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta and his squad will open up at home in Matchday 1. (Getty)
  • Date: Saturday, August 12
  • Time: 7:30 a.m. ET
  • Venue: Emirates Stadium
  • Location: London, England

Best Bet: Arsenal win and Over 3.5 goals (+130)

Arsenal beat Manchester City on penalties to claim the Community Shield last weekend. Mikel Arteta will know his side need to be on top form from day one if they are to overhaul the champions for the much bigger prize of the Premier League.

As such, a visit from Nottingham Forest is a welcome opener. Steve Cooper’s team had the worst away record in the division last season, taking a solitary point from 10 games on the road against the clubs which finished in the top half.

And every home game Arsenal had against the eventual bottom nine saw at least four goals, including a 5-0 win against Forest. A similar outcome looks likely here.

Brighton vs. Luton

  • Date: Saturday, August 12
  • Time: 10:00 a.m. ET
  • Venue: Amex Stadium
  • Location: Brighton, England

Best Bet: Brighton win and Over 2.5 goals (-110)

Nobody is giving Luton a prayer of staying up this season. It is -270 favourite to be relegated, +137 to finish bottom of the table.

Much will depend on its home form so a trip to Brighton is a tough starter. The Seagulls should win this match and it is reasonable to expect a few goals.

Brighton was joint-second in the Premier League for matches featuring over 2.5 goals last term, and it occurred in seven of its eight matches against the sides who finished in the bottom four.

Newcastle vs. Aston Villa

Sandro Tonali and Newcastle United are listed as healthy home favorites versus Aston Villa. (Getty)
  • Date: Saturday, August 12
  • Time: 12:30 p.m. ET
  • Venue: St James’ Park
  • Location: Newcastle, England

Best Bet: Newcastle ML (-135)

Newcastle and Aston Villa played out an entertaining 3-3 draw in a pre-season friendly in July but both sides comfortably won their home game in the meetings last season.

The Magpies were strong at St James’ Park throughout 2022/23, only losing to Arsenal and Liverpool. Newcastle also had the second-best home defence in the division.

While Aston Villa has recruited well this summer, as it took just one point from away games against the top five last season it’s likely too early in this campaign for it to upset the odds.

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Andrew Beasley

Andrew Beasley

Andrew Beasley is a freelance football writer who uses his statistical knowledge and insight of soccer to provide betting previews, strategy articles and podcasts for a variety of websites and bookmakers. Primarily focussed on the EPL, if the data is available for another league, he’ll manage to find an edge somewhere.Andrew was also part of the victorious team in season 15 of the BBC quiz show Only Connect. He’s good at spotting sequences and connections in soccer too. More from Andrew Beasley
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