Boxing Day Best Bets
December 25, 2017
By Chris David
The English Premier League takes center stage on Tuesday with its annual Boxing Day card.
This year’s event will feature 16 teams and unfortunately that won’t include Manchester City, who has absolutely run away with the league this season. The Citizens finished up the first-half unbeaten (18-1-0) and are 13 points clear in the latest table. The Citizens will travel to New Castle United on Wednesday (NBCSN, 2:45 p.m. ET) as they look to build on their record-breaking season.
2017 Boxing Day Schedule
Tottenham vs. Southampton (NBCSN, 7:30 a.m.)
Manchester United vs. Burnley (NBCSN, 10:00 a.m.)
Bournemouth vs. West Ham United (10:00 a.m.)
Chelsea vs. Brighton (10:00 a.m.)
Huddersfield vs. Stoke City (10:00 a.m.)
Watford vs. Leicester City (10:00 a.m.)
West Bromwich Albion vs. Everton (10:00 a.m.)
Liverpool vs. Swansea City (NBCSN, 12:30 p.m.)
Manchester United (-425) will host Burnley (+1250) at Old Trafford and the Red Devils will look to get on track after allowing a late goal in extra time and suffering a 2-2 draw at Leicester City last Saturday. Manchester United has won 19 games on Boxing Day and are expected to get three points in this match. While the price is too high for most bettors, my focus is on the total. United has only allowed 14 goals in league play and three came at Old Trafford, two of them coming from the league leaders and their rival Manchester City. United is 2-2-0 in the last four meetings against Burnely and the draws were both scoreless results. The Clarets have been a great ‘under’ look (15-4) this season and I don’t see them hitting the board in this spot.
Best Bet: Under 2 ½ (+110)
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score – No (-200)
Best Bet: Manchester United to keep a clean sheet – Yes (-170)
There are two games on Tuesday that have totals listed at 2 goals, which includes a matchup between Huddersfield (+150) and Stoke City (+200). It’s a little surprising to see the low number knowing Stoke City has been a great ‘over’ bet (14-5) this season and Huddersfield (9-10) has slightly leaned to the ‘under.’ Fourteen of the 19 games that Stoke has played in have seen at least three goals scored and Huddersfield has seen two combined goals scored in all but four of its games this season. The key reason I’m leaning to the high side is what the Potters have has done off a win this season. In its first four victories, they’ve allowed 16 total goals in the next game. Stoke just beat West Bromwich Albion 3-1 this past Saturday and now faces the Terriers.
Best Bet: Over 2 (-120)
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-110)
Chelsea (-600) welcomes Brighton & Hove (+1600) to Stamford Bridge on the holiday and similar to other big name clubs, the Blues are listed as heavy favorites. Chelsea is coming off a scoreless draw at Everton this past Saturday as it couldn’t connect despite getting off 25 shots. The Blues haven’t been as sound when it comes to finishing this season (32 goals) and most of the damage has come on the road (18 goals). Last season, Chelsea knocked in 55 goals at home. Fortunately, striker Alvaro Morata returns to the lineup on Saturday and he’ll be able to test the Seagulls, who have been sound defensively (23 goals). Brighton enters this game off a win and its gone 0-2-2 in the following game while allowing a combined seven goals. Meanwhile, Chelsea has been blanked four times this season which includes the recent result against Everton. It has responded with eight goals after the first three instances. I’m going to back that trend again and look for the Blues to break through. Make a note, they posted a 4-2 win on Boxing Day at home last year and I hope they can repeat the effort.
Best Bet: Over 3 (+115)
Best Bet: Total Chelsea Goals 2 ½ (+100)
Best Bet: 6 or more goals (+900)
The final game on Boxing Day takes place from Anfield as Liverpool (-750) hosts Swansea City (+1800) in what looks like a mismatch on paper. The Swans sit in the relegation zone and they own the weakest attack in the league with just 12 goals. A road win in this spot would be a shocker and a big blow to Liverpool, who’s fighting to stay in the Top 4. The Reds own a dynamic offense (41 goals) but for whatever reason, they’ve only scored 14 goals at home and that’s led to a 6-3 ‘under’ mark. The defense for Liverpool has been much better at home (3 goals) and the unit will be facing a Swans team that only has scored six away goals this season. Liverpool is a tough team to figure out and it could easily hang four-plus goals on anybody, something it’s done four times already this season. Despite knowing that, I’m calling for a holiday hangover and believe the Swans will carry some momentum into this match from last Saturday’s 1-1 home draw to Crystal Palace.
Best Bet: Under 3 ½ (-125)
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score - No (-150)
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