UFC 254 Khabib vs Gaethje Picks, Predictions, Odds

• October 23, 2020
• By Brian Edwards
• VegasInsider.com

In the words of UFC play-by-play man Jon Anik, fight fans have only “one more sleep” until Saturday’s UFC 254 card arrives.

There are 12 scraps on tap starting with a pair of Early Prelims at 11:00 a.m. Eastern on ESPN+.

Then at noon ET., four Prelim fights will be televised on ESPN2. The main card on ESPN+ pay per view will get going at 2:00 p.m. Eastern.

UFC 254 Odds | MMA Odds | UFC 254 Expert Picks

• Date: Saturday, Oct. 24, 2020
• Venue: Flash Forum
• Location: Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
• Expected Fights: 12
• Championship Bouts: 1
• TV/Time: ESPN, ESPN+, ESPN PPV 11:00 a.m. ET

Khabib Nurmagomedov will look to make another big statement on Saturday when he meets Justin Gaethje in the UFC 254 main event. (AP)

UFC 254
Main Card Picks

Lightweight Championship
Khabib Nurmagomedov vs. Justin Gaethje

In the main event, Khabib ‘The Eagle’ Nurmagomedov will put his unbeaten record and lightweight title on the line against interim lightweight champion, Justin ‘The Highlight’ Gaethje.

As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Nurmagomedov (28-0 MMA, 12-0 UFC) listed as a favorite in the -300 to -350 range. Gaethje was around +260 to +275 on the comeback.

The total was 4.5 rounds (‘under’ -190, ‘over’ +150).

This fight is one of the most anticipated in many years. Both men are fan favorites. Both men carry themselves with character, class and dignity, and they do so in the world’s most violent sport.

Both men have been respectful to each other all week, speaking highly of the other and shaking hands at the start and end of each faceoff.

Nurmagomedov has never really been seriously challenged in the Octagon. In the opening frame of his third-round submission win over Michael Johnson at UFC 205, Johnson was able to keep the fight standing initially and took advantage by landing a bunch of impressive punches. In fact, one of Johnson’s left hands briefly buckled Nurmagomedov.

However, the Dagestan product was in such complete control of the bout by the later stages of Round 2 that replay clips reveal him talking to Johnson and UFC President Dana White, who was in the front row cage side, simultaneously about how he deserves a title shot while punching Johnson and holding him down.

In Nurmagomedov’s hostile showdown vs. Conor McGregor at UFC 229 on Oct. 6 of 2018, many media members scored Round 3 for McGregor, but that’s the only stanza that Nurmagomedov has lost in his 28-fight career.

His last time out at UFC 242 in Abu Dhabi, Nurmagomedov did get caught in a guillotine choke by Dustin Poirier. It certainly looked as if Poirier had the choke locked in tight, but it quickly became clear that there was zero panic whatsoever from the Russian wrestler.

He eventually slipped out of the choke and immediately took top position. Less than a minute later, Nurmagomedov finished Poirier with a third-round rear-naked choke.

Khabib’s father, Abdulmanap Nurmagomedov, was in his son’s corner for the first time during his UFC tenure at UFC 242. The elder Nurmagomedov had been unable to secure a visa to attend his son’s fights in the United States. As it has tragically turned out, it would be the last time Khabib’s father witnessed his son compete.

In May of 2020 after heart surgery, Abdulmanap contracted COVID-19 and was placed in a medically-induced coma. At a clinic in Moscow on July 3, Khabbi’s father, coach and mentor passed away.

Whether the mental and emotional anguish that Nurmagomedov has dealt with over the last 3.5 months will be a positive or a negative Saturday in the Octagon is anyone’s guess. Perhaps it’s motivated him to an even higher level? Or maybe the time spent mourning has had a negative impact on his focus or mindset?

Whatever the case, Nurmagomedov is facing his greatest career challenge by stepping into a cage with Gaethje.

Not long ago, the Arizona native had a zero in the loss column of his career record, too. He signed with the UFC in 2017 after a three-year run as the lightweight kingpin in the World Series of Fighting promotion. That stretch included five successful title defenses with TKO victories.

Gaethje faced the aforementioned Johnson in his Octagon debut and it was a 10-minute war for the ages. Johnson had Gaethje badly hurt on several occasions in both Round 1 and Round 2, but it was ‘The Highlight’ who took control in the final minute of the second stanza. With just 12 seconds left until the bell, Gaethje dropped Johnson with a combination of knees and punches to win by KO.

MMA media outlets like Bloody Elbow, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, Sherdog and other dubbed the Johnson scrap as the 2017 Fight of the Year. Gaethje garnered an extra $100,000 by winning Performance of the Night and Fight of the Night honors.

Gaethje then took on former UFC 155-pound champ Eddie Alvarez at UFC 218. Gaethje seemed to be winning the fight, busting Alvarez up at will and leaving one of his cheeks grotesquely swollen. Nevertheless, Alvarez was able to land a hellacious knee that put Gaethje out and ended the fight, one that again earned FOTN honors.

In a five-round main event in his home state in Glendale on April 14 of 2018, Gaethje faced Poirier in another epic slugfest. I felt like Poirier was slightly getting the better of it in the first two action-packed rounds. However, ‘The Diamond’ seemed to be tiring in Round 3 and Gaethje had seemingly taken back the momentum.

But then Poirier caught a break when the referee called timeout after Gaethje caught Poirier with an accidental eye poke. The ref even deducted a point from Gaethje for the foul but most importantly, Poirier had time to recover and catch his wind.

Then just 33 seconds into Round 4, Poirier turned out the lights on Gaethje with a powerful left that ended the bout via KO. Once again, Gaethje bagged his third FOTN bonus in as many UFC appearances, and the scrap was dubbed Fight of the Year by MMAJunkie, MMAWeekly and Sherdog.

After back-to-back defeats, Gaethje ripped off three straight wins by first-round KO over James Vick, Edson Barboza and Donald ‘Cowboy’ Cerrone.

With Tony Ferguson and Nurmagomedov booked to fight for the fifth time in April, another freak occurrence – a global pandemic in this instance – prevented the fighters from squaring off against each other. Therefore, for the first time in his career, Gaethje accepted a fight on short notice against ‘El Cucuy.’

In the first show since the start of the pandemic at UFC 249 in Jacksonville on May 9, Gaethje put on the performance of his career. He conducted an absolute kickboxing clinic and ended Ferguson’s division-record 12-fight winning streak with a fifth-round KO to win the interim strap.

After White wrapped the interim belt around Gaethje’s waist, he tossed the belt aside for his postfight Octagon interview with Joe Rogan, who immediately asked him why he took it off. “Cause I’m waiting for the real one,” Gaethje answered.

He continued, “Khabib is the best in the world, and that’s the only challenge I’m interested in.”

Nurmagomedov is only seven weeks older than Gaethje, who will turn 32 in three weeks. They both have a 70-inch reach and the 5-foot-11 Gaethje has a one-inch edge in height.

Before we get to my prediction, I want to share some advice from one of the most respected MMA handicappers around in GambLou aka Lou Finocchiaro, who I spoke with by phone from his Arizona home early Friday morning.

Do yourself a favor and follow him on Twitter at @GambLou

I asked G-Lou if he gives Gaethje much of a chance and he said, “I do. In past fights, we’ve seen Gaethje get tired, but his conditioning looked much better in the Ferguson fight. And I will say that Khabib looked taxed from the weight cut this morning. He appeared drawn and certainly relieved when he hit his mark. But he’s a big 155er and when he gets into the Octagon on Saturday, he’ll be 175 pounds. I can’t turn down a chance to back the undefeated Nurmagomedov at such an inexpensive price (-110) on the prop for him to win inside the distance.”

UFC 254 Predictions
Khabib vs. Gaethje

What makes this fight such a difficult handicap is that Gaethje has been wrestling just as long as Khabib has been. Gaethje started wrestling at the age of four and was a Division-I All-American at Northern Colorado University before turning his focus to MMA.

Nevertheless, we’ve NEVER once seen him shoot for a takedown during his UFC tenure, nor has he been taken down. He’s always said that the reason for that is that wrestling requires spending more energy. Oh, and there’s that next-level talent ‘The Highlight’ possesses with his stand-up skills.

Gaethje is led by one of world’s premier MMA coaches in Trevor Wittman, who is a master of preparation and footwork, all of which were on full display against Ferguson. It’s not a father-son relationship like the one Khabib enjoyed with Abdulmanap, but it appears to be a bond that’s nearly as strong.

Gaethje has acknowledged that he must keep his back away from the fence, something he believes he can do with his footwork and kicks. Without exception, Nurmagomedov has eventually taken down every one of his opponents and worked them over from a dominant position that’s usually up against the cage.

Gaethje has also conceded that if he gets taken down and can’t get back up quickly, he’s screwed. But he’s also offered up plenty of paths that he has to victory. Gaethje has said it only takes four of his powerful leg kicks to cause nerve damage in Khabib’s leg. He’s confident that those kicks will make Khabib’s nearly unstoppable double-leg takedowns much easier to defend.

There are other quotes from Gaethje this week and over the past month that certainly grabbed my attention. My favorite was probably this gem: “I don’t think [Khabib] is as crazy as I am. I just don’t care what happens in there as long as I do my best and my effort makes my family proud. My physical well-being in a fight just isn’t something I’m ever concerned about.”

Another interesting quote from Gaethje went like this: “I can’t wait to see how he reacts to seeing his own blood. I’ve never seen him bleed. I cause serious damage. I look forward to witnessing his reaction to the site of his own blood.”

Most of Khabib’s quotes this week have revolved around “Father’s Plan,” which is always to take the opponent down and tire them out. He’s paid homage to Gaethje’s skills, footwork and incredible performance against Ferguson, but in the same breath has said that he will wrestle him, tire him out and submit him in the later rounds.

Do I give Gaethje a chance to win this fight? No doubt about it. But what exactly does that mean? Well, I’ll say that he wins this fight one out of every five times. However, this scrap is only going down once and the sharp and smart call is for Nurmagomedov to get his hand raised for the 29th time.

Now I certainly don’t suggest eating the expensive straight price. Gaethje is entirely too dangerous and capable of winning to risk that much ‘chalk.’ If you want to include Nurmagomedov in a parlay, I have no problem with that.

Give me one unit on Nurmagomedov to win inside the distance at a -110 price. Also, let’s go with one unit on Nurmagomedov to win by submission for a generous +190 payout.

UFC 254
Bonus Picks

I only have two other fights that I have plays on, but I like both A LOT!

Jared Cannonier vs. Robert ‘The Reaper’ Whittaker

In the co-main event, Jared Cannonier will collide with former champion Robert ‘The Reaper’ Whittaker. This is a pick ‘em fight at most books (-110 or -115 either way).

GambLou and I are on the same page in this one, as we both like Cannonier. GambLou told VI, “Although Whittaker is the younger fighter and has the experience advantage, I think of him as the same age as Cannonier because he’s been in so many wars. I think the explosion, quickness and hunger factors are in Cannonier’s favor.”

When GambLou talks about Whittaker participating wars, he’s likely referencing spending 50 minutes inside of a cage fighting Yoel Romero. Nobody is ever the same after those terrifying experiences. Whittaker won both fights by narrow decisions that could’ve gone either way.

Since then, Whittaker lost the belt by second-round KO to Israel Adesanya and bounced back with a lackluster decision triumph over Darren Till earlier this year. White has said all week that IF the winner puts on a great show, he’ll get the next shot at Adesanya’s 185-pound strap.

Prediction

Sign me up for four units on Cannonier!

This dude is a savage who is in the best shape of his life and the best mindset. He used to fight at heavyweight and is one of only three fighters in UFC history who owns KO victories in three different weight classes. He’s won three fights in a row since dropping down to middleweight after back-to-back losses at 205 pounds against Dominic Reyes and Jan Blachowicz.

As you probably know, Blachowicz is now the UFC light-heavyweight champ after beating Reyes for the belt vacated by Jon Jones. Cannonier’s three wins have come by KO inside of two rounds against David Branch, Anderson Silva and Jack Hermansson, who saw his four-fight winning streak snapped in the loss to Cannonier. We should also add that Hermansson has already bounced back from that defeat to beat Kelvin Gastelum by first-round submission.

In a heavyweight scrap, I like Walt ‘The Big Ticket’ Harris to bounce back from his second-round TKO loss to Alistair Overeem this past May in Jacksonville vs. Alexander Volkov. Harris had Overeem badly hurt, busted up and bleeding all over the place in the first round, but The ‘Reem somehow recovered enough to survive the round. Then in Round 2, he got an early takedown and maintained top position until he was able to get the finish.

GambLou told VI this morning, “I had Overeem in that fight and I still don’t know how I won. I can’t believe the ref didn’t stop that fight. Overeem was hurt bad and Harris can do that to anybody, but he only has about a six-minute window. If Volkov survives that, he’s going to win. And he’s prepared better to take damage by coming into this fight nearly 20 pounds heavier than his last bout against Curtis Blaydes.”

Prediction

I don’t think Volkov’s chin is going to hold up against Harris’s incredible power. I’m going to bet it four different ways that all are tied to Harris winning by an early KO.

Give me one-half unit on Harris as a +150 underdog. In addition, let’s risk one unit on ‘under’ 1.5 rounds for a +120 return and one unit on Harris to win by KO for a +225 payout. Finally, let’s go with one-half unit on Harris to win in Round 1 for a +450 return.

UFC 254 Fight Card - Opening Odds

Listed below are the "Opening Odds" per the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook.

You can follow the line movements up until each bout in our UFC Betting Odds.

Main Card (2:00 p.m. ET)

• Lightweight: Khabib Nurmagomedov (-200) vs. Justin Gaethje (+175)
• Middleweight: Robert Whittaker (-110) vs. Jared Cannonier (-110)
• Heavyweight: Alexander Volkov (-200) vs. Walt Harris (+160)
• Middleweight: Jacob Malkoun (+240) vs. Phil Hawes (-280)
• Women’s Flyweight: Lauren Murphy (-250) vs. Liliya Shakirova (+210)
• Light Heavyweight: Magomed Ankalaev (-290) vs. Ion Cu?elaba (+245)

Prelims (12:00 p.m. ET)

• Heavyweight: Stefan Struve (-115) vs. Tai Tuivasa (-105)
• Welterweight: Alex Oliveira (-150) vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov (+130)
• Light Heavyweight: Da Un Jung (-390) vs. Sam Alvey (+325)

Early Prelims (11:00 a.m. ET)

• Catchweight (140 lb): Nathaniel Wood (+175) vs. Casey Kenney (-200)
• Women's Flyweight: Liana Jojua (+250) vs. Miranda Maverick (-300)
• Lightweight: Joel Álvarez (-180) vs. Alexander Yakovlev (+160)