CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
July 21, 2014
By David Schwab
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The 2014 CFL season is just four weeks old and we are already seeing a major disparity between a West Division that has four teams with a .500 record or better and an East Division that so far has combined to win just three games straight up.
Last Thursday, Edmonton won the battle of two unbeaten teams in the West with a 26-3 victory over Winnipeg as a 1 ½-point road underdog. The total stayed well UNDER the 54-point closing line. Ottawa kicked off Friday’s double-header with its first ever CFL victory as the RedBlacks with a tight 18-17 win against Toronto as a one-point home underdog. That total stayed UNDER the 52-point line. Calgary remained perfect in the West with a 10-7 win over Hamilton at home on Friday night as a 9 ½-point favorite and the total stayed UNDER the 51-point closing line.
In the only game on Saturday’s slate in Week 4, British Columbia pasted Montreal 41-5 as a 7 ½-point home favorite to even its mark after a 0-2 SU start. It was a clean sweep for the UNDER play with the total line in that game set at 48 ½ points.
Thursday, July 24
Calgary (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) vs. Edmonton (4-0 SU, 3-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -2
Total: 52 ½
Calgary continues to be the most complete team in the CFL with an offense that is averaging 24.3 points a game complementing a defense that has allowed a grand total of just 30 points in its first three games. With running back Jon Cornish still out with a concussion, Matt Walter has helped fill the void with 134 yards on 28 carries.
The Eskimos have already matched last season’s win total with last week’s victory. They have averaged 27 points a game with Mike Reilly at the helm at quarterback, but the biggest reason for the quick turnaround from last season’s misfortunes is a defense that is holding opponents to an average of 14.5 points a game.
The Stampeders are 8-1 SU in the last nine meetings and they have covered against the spread in five of the last six games in this series. They also have a perfect 4-0 ATS record in their last four trips to Edmonton with the total staying UNDER in three of the four games.
Friday, July 25
Winnipeg (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS) at British Columbia (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS)
Total: 53 ½
Winnipeg will look to quickly bounce back from last week’s dismal three-point effort after averaging 38.3 points in its first three games. The Blue Bombers are still the highest scoring team in the CFL behind quarterback Drew Willy, who has thrown for 1,051 yards and five touchdowns while completing 62.4 percent of his attempts.
BC has had to turn to Kevin Glenn at quarterback in the absence of Travis Lulay and he came up with his best offensive effort of the year this past Saturday against Montreal with 301 yards passing and two touchdowns. He had quite a bit of help from wide receiver Emmanuel Arceneaux, who caught eight balls for 145 yards after missing much of the season so far due to injury.
The Lions current SU winning streak in this series stands at five games and they are 3-2 ATS during that run. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of the last 10 meetings and it has stayed UNDER in nine of the last 10 meetings at BC Place.
Saturday, July 26
Ottawa (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Hamilton (0-3 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Hamilton -4 ½
Total: 48 ½
The RedBlacks earned their first victory of the season behind Henry Burris throwing the ball and Chevon Walker running it on the ground. Neither player’s numbers were spectacular, but it was just enough to get the job done. You also have to give credit to the defense for its ability to shutdown Toronto when it needed to the most.
Hamilton had to turn to both Jeremiah Masoli and Dan LeFevour last week for injured quarterback Zach Collaros and the result was a grand total of seven points on a one-point play and two field goals. Collaros remains questionable for this Saturday while recovering from a blow to the head. The Tiger-Cats are ranked dead-last in scoring with an average of 13.7 points a game.
The Tiger-Cats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss, but they are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games against a team with a SU losing record. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games at home.
Toronto (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Saskatchewan (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -6
Total: 49 ½
Despite the fact that quarterback Ricky Ray leads the CFL in passing with 1,280 yards while completing 70.9 percent of his throws, this has not always translated to points and more importantly wins. It also does not help when you have a defense that has given-up the most points (112) in the league.
The defending champs are fresh off a bye week that followed a disappointing 26-13 loss to BC in Week 3 as five-point home favorites. Saskatchewan has already lost to the Argonauts this season in a 48-15 beatdown in Week 2 as a two-point favorite on the road. Darian Durant has 622 passing yards in three games and he has completed just 55.3 percent of his 85 attempts.
The Argonauts have won three of the last four meetings both SU and ATS and the total has gone OVER in all four games. The road team in this matchup is 6-3 SU in the last nine meetings and Toronto is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight trips to Saskatchewan.
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