CFL Betting Notes - Week 8
August 12, 2014
By David Schwab
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The disparity between the East and the West in the CFL regular season standings continued to widen after Week 7’s results. Saskatchewan’s game against Winnipeg last Thursday night was the only divisional matchup on the slate and the Roughriders came away with a 23-17 victory as three-point road favorites. The total stayed UNDER the 54 ½-point closing line.
Friday’s action started off with Edmonton beating Montreal 33-23 as a 4 ½-point favorite on the road and the total went OVER the 46 ½-point line. Later that day, Hamilton fell to British Columbia 36-29 as a 6 ½-point road underdog. That total went way OVER the 49-point closing line. Week 7 closed things out on Saturday with a 38-17 romp of Calgary over Ottawa as a heavy 14-point favorite at home. The total went OVER the closing line of 49 points.
Tuesday, Aug. 12
Winnipeg (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) at Toronto (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS)
Total: 49 ½
The Blue Bombers will look to quickly bounce-back from Thursday’s loss on a short week. Both losses this season have come at home so they will put a three-game road winning streak on the line both straight-up and against the spread. Winnipeg remains the second-highest scoring team in the CFL with an average 26.4 points per game.
It will be double duty for Toronto in Week 8 following last week’s bye which could spell trouble for a team that has been decimated by injuries. Three slotbacks including Chad Owens are out indefinitely. The Argonauts still have four defensive players listed on the Six-Game IR list.
These two first met in Week 1 with Winnipeg rolling to a 45-21 victory as a seven-point home underdog. The road team had won five of the last seven meetings SU with a 5-1-1 record ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings.
Friday, Aug. 15
Edmonton (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) at Ottawa (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -6
Total: 52 ½
Edmonton remains in the thick of the West Division title race after finishing last in 2013. The Eskimos are the highest scoring team in the league this season with 27.2 PPG and their defense is ranked second in points allowed (17.8).
The RedBlacks have looked like an expansion team the past two weeks by getting outscored 76-31 by the other two powers in the West (Saskatchewan and Calgary). Quarterback Henry Burris completed almost 70 percent of his 29 throws this past Saturday, but he got doubled-up 2-1 in interceptions verse touchdowns in the lopsided loss.
The Eskimos beat Ottawa 27-11 in Week 3 as five-point home favorites. The total stayed UNDER the 53-point closing line. Edmonton is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of its first six games this season.
Saturday, Aug. 16
Calgary (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) at Hamilton (1-5 SU, 3-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -4
Calgary continues to establish itself as the team to beat in the CFL this season with an offense that is scoring an average of 26.1 PPG complimenting the stingiest defense in the league. This unit has only allowed 23 points or more once this season.
The Tiger-Cats have done a complete reversal from last year’s run to the Grey Cup title game with a 1-5 SU start, but they remain just on game off the pace in the watered-down East. They have to be encouraged with the 29 points they tallied against BC last week after scoring an average of 20 points in their first five games.
The Stampeders grinded-out a 10-7 victory over Hamilton as 9 ½-point home favorites in the first meeting this season. The total for that game closed at 50 ½ points. This followed a two-game SU sweep in 2013 with the total staying UNDER in both games.
Montreal (1-5 SU, 1-5 ATS) at Saskatchewan (4-2 SU, 4-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -13 ½
Total: 47 ½
Montreal quarterback Troy Smith showed some signs of life in last week’s loss to Edmonton with 231 yards passing and one touchdown throw, but he still only completed 44.4 percent of his 45 attempts. The Alouettes got a decent effort from running back Brandon Whitaker with 79 yards rushing on 15 attempts.
The Roughriders are starting to find their form as defending CFL champs with a three-game SU winning streak after a 1-2 SU start. Running back Jerome Messam rushed for 126 of the 186 yards Saskatchewan gained on the ground against Winnipeg last Thursday.
This will be the first meeting this season after splitting last year’s series 1-1 SU with the home team winning both times. Montreal did cover ATS in both games and the total stayed UNDER each time. It is 4-1 ATS in its last five trips to Saskatchewan.
Sunday, Aug. 17
British Columbia (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) at Toronto (2-4 SU, 2-4 ATS)
The Lions will get the advantage of both an extra few days rest as well as facing a team that played just five days earlier. BC’s passing game is starting to become a force with three different players ranked in the top five of the CFL in total receiving yards. Quarterback Kevin Glenn made a strong play to keep his starting role with 407 yards passing against Hamilton even though Travis Lulay has been cleared to play.
Toronto’s main goal will be to stay healthy during this brutal two-game stretch. They will also need a big effort from quarterback Ricky Ray to try and pull-off the Week 8 sweep. His numbers have been impressive so far with 1,687 yards passing and eight touchdown throws while completing 68.1 percent of his passes, but his team’s overall record both SU and ATS has not.
Looking back at last season’s series, the Lions beat Toronto once at home both SU and ATS and they lost both ways on the road. The total was split 1-1 but it did go OVER in the Argonauts’ 38-12 victory in Week 5 at home on a closing line of 49. BC has covered ATS in five of the last seven meetings overall.
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