CFL Betting Notes - Week 10
August 26, 2014
By David Schwab
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The CFL will close the first-half of its 2014 regular season this upcoming Labor Day Holiday Weekend and all indications continue to point to a league of “haves” (the West Division) and “have nots” (the East Division).
Winnipeg got things going for the West last week with a 24-16 victory over Montreal as a 7 ½-point home favorite on Friday night. The total stayed UNDER the closing 49 ½-point line.
Saturday’s CFL double-header kicked things off with Edmonton almost doubling-up Toronto 41-27 as a seven-point favorite at home. This time the total went well OVER the 49 ½-point line. Calgary rolled over Ottawa 32-7 in the nightcap to easily cover as an 8 ½-point road favorite with the total staying UNDER the 48-point line.
This past Sunday in the only divisional matchup on the slate, Saskatchewan outlasted British Columbia 20-16 as a 2 ½-point road underdog. The total in that game stayed UNDER the 50 ½-point closing line.
Friday, Aug. 29
Ottawa (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS) at Montreal (1-7 SU, 2-6 ATS)
Point-spread: Montreal -5 ½
The good news for the expansion RedBlacks is that they have a decent shot at doubling their win total on the year in their first meeting this season against Montreal. Ottawa has held their own against the other two teams they faced from the East with a Week 3 victory over Toronto (18-17) as a one-point home underdog and a 10-point loss to Hamilton as a 6 ½-point road underdog in Week 4.
The Alouettes continue to sink deeper and deeper into a hole they probably will not be able to climb out of. Their offense is ranked last in the CFL in scoring with an average of 15.6 points a game and they have major issues at the quarterback position. Montreal’s defense has allowed 30 or more points four times during its current six-game losing streak.
Ottawa is 1-4 against the spread in its last five games and 0-4 ATS in four road games this year. Montreal is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 home games and total has stayed UNDER in its last five division games.
Sunday, Aug. 31
Winnipeg (6-3 SU, 6-3 ATS) at Saskatchewan (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Saskatchewan -5 ½
The Blue Bombers snapped a two-game skid both SU and ATS with last week’s win. Drew Willy struggled at quarterback by going 14-for-23 for 200 yards and an interception, but he still got the job done with a 16-point fourth quarter rally to steal the win. Nic Grigsby turned in a solid performance running the ball with 73 yards on 10 carries.
Saskatchewan has now gone 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) since stumbling out of the gate with a 1-2 start both SU and ATS. Quarterback Darian Durant’s numbers are nothing to write home about with a 60.1 percent completion rate and five interceptions vs. seven touchdown throws, but the Roughriders’ defense has held firm; allowing an average of 18.9 PPG. Durant missed the second half of Sunday’s game against BC with a finger injury and so far his status for this Sunday is unknown.
The Roughriders won the first meeting this season 23-17 as three-point road favorites and they hold a 6-1 SU edge (5-2 ATS) in the last seven meetings. The total in this series has stayed UNDER in three of the last four games.
Monday, Sept. 1
Toronto (3-6 SU, 3-6 ATS) at Hamilton (1-6 SU, 3-4 ATS)
Point-spread: Toronto -1
Total: 50 ½
Toronto has just three SU victories on the year, but it can open-up a three-game lead in the East Division with a win next Monday. Quarterback Ricky Ray continues to lead the CFL in total passing yards with 2,442 and he has a league-high 15 touchdown throws, but the Argonauts’ downfall has been a defense that is giving-up 27.7 PPG.
The Tiger-Cats have been able to keep the majority of their games relatively close, but they have not played with the consistency needed to turn these losses into wins partially due to multiple injuries at the quarterback position. They will try and snap a three-game skid both SU and ATS which includes a 10-point loss to Calgary at home as 2 ½-point underdogs before last week’s bye.
The Tiger-Cats have won the last three meetings both SU and ATS after dropping their previous four games to Toronto both ways dating back to the 2012 regular season. The total in this series has gone OVER in six of the last eight meetings.
Edmonton (7-1 SU, 5-3 ATS) at Calgary (7-1 SU, 6-2 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -4 ½
Total: 50 ½
The surprising Eskimos continue to keep pace with Calgary in the West Division title race with a three-game SU winning streak (2-1 ATS). They have scored 26 points or more in seven of their eight games this year and their defense is holding teams to an average of 17.8 PPG. Slotback Adarius Bowman is leading the CFL in receiving yards with 619.
Calgary’s numbers are even more impressive with an offense that is averaging 27.9 PPG complementing a defense that is allowing an average of 15.1 points, which is tops in the CFL. Bo Levi Mitchell has done a good job leading the offense at quarterback. He has thrown for 1,958 yards and 12 touchdowns against just four interceptions.
The Stampeders grinded-out the early edge in this season’s series with a 26-22 victory in late July as 1 ½-point road favorites. The total stayed UNDER the 49 ½-point closing line and it has now stayed UNDER in the last three meetings. Calgary is 9-1 SU in the last 10 meetings with a 7-3 edge ATS.
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