CFL Betting Notes - Week 5
July 9, 2018
By David Schwab
Week 4 Betting Recap
It was a split bill in the CFL last week with two favorites covering against the spread and two underdogs winning their games straight-up. Saskatchewan pulled off the first upset on Thursday night by getting past Hamilton 18-13 as a six-point underdog at home.
In Friday’s CFL action, Ottawa covered as a 7 ½-point road favorite by beating Montreal 28-18. Saturday’s doubleheader started with Toronto edging Edmonton 20-17 as a three-point home underdog followed by Winnipeg’s 41-19 rout of West rival British Columbia as a 6 ½-point favorite at home.
Thursday, July 12
Calgary Stampeders (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) at Ottawa RedBlacks (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS)
Point-spread: Calgary -3
Point-spread: 54 ½
Calgary went into last week’s bye fresh off a 24-14 victory against Ottawa as a 7 ½-point home favorite in Week 3. It has now won each of its first three games by double figures while easily covering the spread. The total has stayed UNDER the closing line in all three contests. Bo Levi Mitchell is off to a solid start throwing the ball with 872 passing yards and six touchdown throws. Don Jackson has also done a good job on the ground with 294 yards rushing and two scores on 36 carries for an average of 8.2 yards a run.
The RedBlacks took the early lead in the East Division with last week’s victory against Montreal. After Trevor Harris was held to 135 yards passing in the loss to the Stampeders, he returned to form against the Alouettes with 342 yards through the air and three scoring strikes. Harris completed 66.7 percent of his 42 passing attempts in that game with Brad Sinpoli coming down with 11 receptions for 148 yards and one of those three touchdown throws. William Powell had another big game running the ball with 138 yards rushing on 23 carries.
-- Calgary has gone 4-2-1 SU in its last seven games against the RedBlacks, but it falls to 2-4 ATS in its last six road games against Ottawa. The total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in Ottawa.
Friday, July 13
Toronto Argonauts (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Edmonton Eskimos (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Point-spread: Edmonton -7
Toronto comes into the back end of this home-and-home series with James Franklin as its starting quarterback. He made his first start of the season last week for the injured Ricky Ray and threw for 217 yards and a score while adding another touchdown on a run. Franklin ended the game with 31 yards on the ground on six rushing attempts. The Argonauts also got a strong effort from James Wilder Jr. running the ball with 120 yards and a score on 21 carries. Declan Cross caught the game winner in the fourth quarter to give Toronto the come-from-behind win.
Defense has been an issue for Edmonton in its 2-2 start. The Eskimos gave up 38 points in an early season loss to Hamilton and they could not hold onto the lead last Saturday in this home-and-home series opener. Mike Reilly was able to move the ball against Toronto almost at will with 370 yards passing, but it still only added up to 17 points on the board. He completed 70.0 percent of his 40 attempts with one touchdown throw and one interception. Edmonton was held to 56 yards rushing with CJ Gable gaining just 39 yards on 14 carries.
-- The Eskimos have won four of the last six meetings SU and they have gone 6-1 SU in their last seven home games against Toronto. The total has gone OVER in the last five meetings in Edmonton.
Saturday, July 14
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS) at British Columbia Lions (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS)
Winnipeg gained the early edge in this home-and-home series with its play on both sides of the ball. Andrew Harris rushed for 109 yards and a touchdown on nine carries and Adam Bighill posted a pair of interceptions on defense including one that was returned 55-yards for a touchdown. Leading 28-10 at the half, the Blue Bombers cruised to the lopsided win. Matt Nichols saw his first action of the season coming off a knee injury and the rust was evident with a 55.2 completion percentage on 29 passing attempts for 162 yards and a score.
The Lions have gotten doubled up in their last two games by a combined score of 82-41. Both losses came on the road following a 22-10 victory at home against Montreal as 8 ½-point favorites in Week 1. Jonathan Jennings ended last Saturday’s game with 105 yards passing plus those two picks with zero touchdown throws. Cody Fajardo added a third interception while completing five of six attempts for 68 yards. Jeremiah Johnson had a decent day running the ball with 80 rushing yards on 13 attempts.
-- Winnipeg has won six of the last nine meetings SU while covering ATS in eight of those games. It has a 6-1 edge ATS in its last seven road games against the Lions and the total has gone OVER in four of the last five meetings in BC.
4-1 L5, 12-3 Streak, 8-3 Totals
8-2 L10, 12-4 Record This Year
7-1 L8 Totals, 8-3 L11 Picks
3-0 Run, 14-5 L19 Selections
5-0 CFL Over/Under Plays TY
10-5 Over/Unders This Year
3-0 L3 Picks, 5-2 L5 Thursdays
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