Top 10 - Stock Watch
February 18, 2014
By Greg Smith
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Every team in the Top 10 is trying for a higher seed come March and every opponent playing them is trying just to get a seed. From here on out, a lot of the teams below will have a hard time covering games, simply because they will get the very best effort from their opponents.
1) - Syracuse: (25-0 SU, 13-7-1 ATS) - SELL
“I’d rather be lucky than good”…well the Orange are both. After nearly getting upset twice last week Syracuse remains unbeaten and still ranked No. 1 in the country. This week however, after they play Boston College, they travel to Cameron Indoor Stadium to take on Duke. It’s here, where I think Syracuse’s luck runs out.
2) - Florida: (23-2 SU, 11-9-1 ATS) - HOLD
Florida may be winning games, but they sure don’t cover as much as a bettor would like (they did however cover their last two). This week they get Auburn at home before traveling to Ole Miss. I believe they will have their hands full against the Rebels. The Gators are 5-3 ATS on the road and Ole Miss is one of those teams that need a marquee win. I think Florida is the best team in the country, so I’m showing respect and holding.
3) - Wichita State: (27-0 SU, 17-6-1 ATS) - BUY
Speaking of respect, the Shockers sure deserve it. In their last 69 games they are double winners to losers ATS. That’s crazy! I may bet on Wichita State from here on out and play the percentages.
4) - Arizona: (23-2 SU, 14-10 ATS) - SELL
In their last seven games the Wildcats are 1-6 ATS. They are doing the bare minimum to stay in the conversation as a No. 1 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament, but with teams playing them for the second time, I believe that horrible ATS record gets worse, especially with Colorado coming up this week.
5) - Duke: (20-5 SU, 16-9 ATS) - BUY
In contrast to Arizona, the Blue Devils are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games. They will have their hands full with the Tar Heels in Thursday’s make-up game and with their ALMOST horrific loss to Maryland at home last week, they may be an underdog at Chapel Hill. Their ATS record in the last few weeks can’t be ignored…I’m buying what Coach K is putting together.
6) - San Diego State: (22-2 SU, 12-9 ATS) - SELL
The Aztecs finally suffered their first conference loss to Wyoming last week, but didn’t have much impact on their AP ranking, slipping only one spot. Having New Mexico on Saturday at “The Pit”, there could be another setback in their future.
7) - Cincinnati: (23-3 SU, 10-10 ATS) - SELL
Good new bad news. Good news…The Bearcats play Louisville, Saturday at HOME. Bad news…good luck, beating Rick Pitino for the second straight time.
8) - Kansas: (19-6 SU, 13-11-1 ATS) - HOLD
I said it before and I’ll say it again. When it comes to wins and losses ATS, the Jayhawks are a flip of a coin. I want to say, they will handle Texas at home, but they didn’t earlier in the season. They should beat the Longhorns Saturday, but can they cover a large number…?
9) Villanova: (22-3 SU, 17-6 ATS) - HOLD
Villanova got routed AGAIN by Creighton and I’m a bit shocked I’m still writing about them. They play Providence and St. Johns this week. Two teams on the bubble. Too scary for me…I’m selling.
10) Saint Louis: (23-2 SU, 9-13 ATS) - HOLD
Not surprised to see the Billikens in the Top 10, but if this was an ATS poll, they wouldn’t even make the Top 25. This is a great basketball club and they will go deep in the tournament, but they are not a good team to follow at the betting counter. Maybe in March there could be value, but not right now.
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