Pac-12 Betting Notes
March 11, 2014
By Marc Lawrence
March 12-15 -- All games at the MGM Grand Arena, Las Vegas, NV
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: ARIZONA, UCLA, OREGON, COLORADO
THE WAY WE SEE IT:
In its 12-year history, seven different teams have managed to capture this event with Oregon winning for the third time last season.
Surprisingly, ARIZONA, the clear top seed in this year’s tourney, has managed to win the title only one time – in the inaugural tournament thirteen years ago. On paper, this year’s edition looks to be the real deal as they rank in the Top 10 in both Defensive Field Goal Percentage and Rebound Margin while shooting nearly 47% from the floor. A major concern, among others, is a 1-6 SUATS record in this event versus greater than .700 opponents.
UCLA, last year’s runner-up, wobbled a bit down the stretch and was just 1-4 SUATS in games versus greater than .750 foes. New head coach Steve Alford won back-to-back MWC titles before coming to Westwood and is 19-5 ATS in conference tourneys when facing an opponent off a SUATS win.
After opening the season 13-0 before hitting a 2-8 wall, OREGON appears to have got their mojo back heading into this affair. The defending champs are 16-8 SU and 16-7-1 ATS all-time in this tourney.
COLORADO was a preseason Top 25 choice and looked like it until star PG Spencer Dinwiddie went down with an injury. He’s back and with it the Buffaloes’ prospects loom large once again. Note: the Buffs are 8-2 ATS as conference dogs of less than 4 points under Tad Boyle.
THE SLEEPER: UTAH
The Utes were the biggest moneymakers in the league this campaign (18-6 ATS as press time) and managed to pull off upsets over California and USC in their debut in this tournament last season before being booted out by eventual champion Oregon. A 13-1 SU mark in games versus sub .600 opposition this season should help kick-start a similar momentum this go-round.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON THE DOG IN THE CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Living by the adage of “if it ain’t broke don’t fix it”, our trusty database calls out the fact that underdogs are 6-1 ATS in the last seven title games in this tourney. They were 6-0 until the Bruins spilled their guts on championship day last year. And should Arizona arrive as expected to the championship game, they should aid the cause as they are 2-5 SUATS as chalk in this tourney versus .600 or greater opponents.
EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES
ARIZONA: 3-0 ATS off SU loss, 6-1 ATS favs vs opp w/revenge, 0-5 ATS w/revenge, 2-8 ATS favs off BB SU wins
ARIZONA ST: 1-5 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 1-4 ATS as favs, 3-10 SU all-time
CALIFORNIA: 6-0 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 4-1 ATS as favs off SU loss, 1-5-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 2-10-1 ATS vs opp off BB SU wins
COLORADO: 9-1 ATS L10 as dogs, 6-2 ATS off SU dog win, 1-4 ATS L5 as favs, 2-5 ATS w/same-season double revenge
OREGON: 3-0 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 7-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 0-2 ATS off DD SU loss, 0-2-1 ATS dogs off SU dog win
OREGON ST: 3-1 ATS dogs < 10 pts vs opp off SU win, 5-2 ATS L7, 1-4 ATS off SU loss vs opp off SU loss, 1-3 ATS as DD dogs
STANFORD: 2-0 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 1-6 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 1-5 ATS off DD SU win, 3-8 ATS off SUATS win
UCLA: 3-0 ATS off DD ATS win, 3-1 ATS w/revenge, 3-1 ATS as DD favs, 1-3 ATS vs opp off SUATS win, 1-3 ATS vs #1-2 seeds
USC: 5-1 ATS dogs 12 < pts, 10-3 ATS off SU win vs opp off SUATS win, 5-2 ATS w/revenge, 0-3 ATS off SUATS loss
UTAH: 4-0 ATS off BB SU losses, 3-0 ATS as dogs vs opp off DD SU loss, 4-1 ATS as dogs 8 > pts, 1-8 ATS as favs off SUATS win
WASHINGTON: 2-0 ATS dogs vs opp off DD SU win, 0-5 ATS off SU loss, 1-4 ATS vs opp off SU loss, 1-4 ATS favs < 6 pts
WASHINGTON ST: 5-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 1-5 ATS off SUATS win, 1-4 ATS w/revenge, 1-4 ATS as dogs > 3 pts
-- Dogs of < 8 pts are 10-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU wins
-- Favorites are 4-1 ATS off 3+ SU losses
-- DD favorites are 5-1 ATS off SUATS win
-- #1 seeds are 5-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win
-- #2 seed dogs are 4-1 ATS L5
-- #3 seeds are 1-5 ATS w/revenge
-- #4 seeds are 0-4 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses
-- #10 seeds are 2-7 SUATS L9
5-0 L5, 19-5 Run, 13-4 G-Plays
6-2 L8, 12-4 L16 Picks, +2,209 TY
9-3 L12, 30-11 Run, 11-3 G-Plays
37-19 Win Streak, +6,558 TY
6-1 Last 7 Guaranteed Plays
14-7 L21 Picks, 11-3 Totals TY
24-11 Run, 11-4 L15 G-Plays
4-2 L6 G-Plays, +6,297 Totals TY
5-0 L5 Guarantees, 10-3 L13 Picks
6-3 L9, 16-8 L24 Guarantees
6-2 Saturday, +5,560 L31 Days
+1,754 Net Profits This Year
14-7 L21 Over/Under Plays
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