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Field of 68 - Power Ratings

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NIT Power Ratings

We are coming off projecting 67 of the Field of 68, just like Jerry Palm & Joe Lunardi; we missed SMU, which was one of our last four teams in the field (unlike those two who had them safely in) as we blogged & tweeted multiple times last week their resume wasn’t as strong as many led you to believe. We also expected one surprise team to show up in the field, and it was North Carolina State snagging that bid.

Now that the field is set here is some analysis using the SportsBoss Power Index (SBPI) on each region:

SportsBoss Power Index - NCAA Tournament
Team Tournament Seed Region Power Ratings
Florida 1 SOUTH 1
Arizona 1 WEST 2
Virginia 1 EAST 7
Wichita State 1 MIDWEST 31
Villanova 2 EAST 3
Wisconsin 2 WEST 8
Michigan 2 MIDWEST 13
Kansas 2 SOUTH 17
Duke 3 MIDWEST 4
Syracuse 3 SOUTH 15
Iowa State 3 EAST 24
Creighton 3 WEST 30
Louisville 4 MIDWEST 9
San Diego State 4 WEST 12
Michigan State 4 EAST 14
UCLA 4 SOUTH 23
VCU 5 SOUTH 11
Cincinnati 5 EAST 19
Oklahoma 5 WEST 27
Saint Louis 5 MIDWEST 38
Ohio State 6 SOUTH 5
Baylor 6 WEST 16
North Carolina 6 EAST 22
Massachusetts 6 MIDWEST 36
Oregon 7 WEST 25
Connecticut 7 EAST 37
Texas 7 MIDWEST 43
New Mexico 7 SOUTH 59
Kentucky 8 MIDWEST 21
Memphis 8 EAST 34
Colorado 8 SOUTH 35
Gonzaga 8 WEST 55
Pittsburgh 9 SOUTH 10
Oklahoma State 9 WEST 29
Kansas State 9 MIDWEST 42
George Washington 9 EAST 45
Stanford 10 SOUTH 39
Arizona State 10 MIDWEST 46
Brigham Young 10 WEST 51
Saint Joseph's 10 EAST 54
Tennessee 11 MIDWEST 6
Iowa 11 MIDWEST 18
Providence 11 EAST 20
Dayton 11 SOUTH 47
Nebraska 11 WEST 56
Xavier 12 MIDWEST 40
Harvard 12 EAST 70
North Carolina State 12 MIDWEST 79
North Dakota State 12 WEST 87
Stephen F. Austin 12 SOUTH 173
Tulsa 13 SOUTH 90
Manhattan 13 MIDWEST 99
Delaware 13 EAST 155
New Mexico State 13 WEST 164
Louisiana-Lafayette 14 WEST 107
Mercer 14 MIDWEST 166
Western Michigan 14 SOUTH 220
North Carolina Central 14 EAST 255
Milwaukee 15 EAST 161
Eastern Kentucky 15 SOUTH 190
Wofford 15 MIDWEST 211
American University 15 WEST 217
Cal Poly 16 MIDWEST 117
Mount St. Mary's 16 SOUTH 201
Weber State 16 WEST 247
Albany 16 SOUTH 257
Coastal Carolina 16 EAST 302
Texas Southern 16 MIDWEST 323


The above matrix shows each team in the Field of 68 first sorted by seed, and secondarily sorted using their ranking in my SBP.

We then wanted to test each region’s strength using SBPI on three levels:

1. Entire region (taking the average SBPI rating of the teams involved in the 4 play-in games)

2. Top 8 in each region

3. Top 4 in each region

SBPI - Average Regional Rankings
Region Average Rank - Overall Average Rank - Top 8 Average Rank - Top 4
SOUTH 72.8 20.8 14.0
EAST 76.4 20.0 12.0
WEST 70.8 21.9 13.0
MIDWEST 65.7 24.4 14.3


The lower a score above the tougher the region – meaning we see some interesting scenarios.

While the Midwest is clearly the toughest region from top to bottom it is also ranked as the easiest when isolating the Top 8 & Top 4 teams in the region. A lot of the “strength” in the Midwest region is coming from the 11 line where the play-in game between Tennessee & Providence comes between two teams with an average rating of 12; the other three regions have ratings on the 11 line of 20, 47 & 56.

On the flip side the East region is clearly the weakest #1-16 but is also the toughest using Top 8 & Top 4 teams. Of the top 8 seeds the East does not have the weakest ranked team on any of the eight lines.

  
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