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College Basketball

UConn vs. Villanova Predictions, Odds, Preview

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

Feb. 20, 2021
David Schwab
NCAA BK Expert
VegasInsider.com

The Connecticut Huskies square off against the No. 10 Villanova Wildcats at Finneran Pavilion in an early 1 p.m. (ET) start this Saturday with FOX carrying the game nationally.

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UConn-Villanova Betting Odds

  • Spread: Villanova -7.5
  • Money-Line: TBD
  • Total: 137.5

Odds Subject to Change

The opening spread for this Big East tilt favors Villanova by -7.5-points playing at home. The total line for the game opened at 137.5.

The Huskies have won their last two games straight-up to improve to 7-5 in Big East play. They are 4-2 against the spread in their last six games with the total going OVER in five of their last seven outings.

Connecticut is 1-4 SU (2-3 ATS) in its last five games against Villanova going back to 2013.The total stayed UNDER in four of the five games.

The Wildcats are coming off last Saturday’s 14-point loss to Creighton as two-point road favorites. They are still leading the Big East at 8-2 SU. Yet, they are 1-3 ATS in their last four games including an 11-point road loss to St. John’s as 9.5-point favorites. The total has gone OVER in their last three outings.

Villanova is 6-0 SU at home this season with a 3-3 mark ATS. The total has gone OVER in five of those six games.


The Villanova Wildcats are coming off a loss and the school hasn't dropped back-to-back games yet this season. (AP)

Betting Analysis – UConn Huskies

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 10-5
  • ATS: 11-4
  • SU - Home: 5-3
  • SU - Away: 5-2
  • O/U: 8-7

The Huskies are holding onto fourth place in the Big East standings with the past two wins. With James Bouknight back in the lineup, they are much more dangerous team. He scored 18 points in Tuesday’s 73-61 victory over Providence.

The sophomore guard missed a number of games with an elbow injury. This was his first game back since early January after averaging 20 points per game on the year. Guards’ Tyrese Martin (12.5 points) and RJ Cole (12.2 points) helped fill the void in his absence.

Connecticut is averaging 71.3 points with 37.4 rebounds. It is shooting 43.4% from the field and 35.5% from three-point range. Defensively, the Huskies are allowing an average of 65.1 PPG. They have allowed 70 points or more in each of their last three road games.

Betting Analysis – Villanova Wildcats

Straight Up - SU, Against the Spread - ATS, Over-Under (O/U)

  • SU: 13-3
  • ATS: 9-7
  • SU - Home: 6-1
  • SU - Away: 7-2
  • O/U: 10-6

A pair of bad losses over their last four games have tempered the Wildcats’ position as an elite national title contender. However, this is still one of the best teams in the nation.

Forward Jeremiah Robinson-Earl leads the way in points (15.6) and rebounds (7.3) on a roster that is deep in scoring with five players averaging at least 11 PPG. Forward Jermaine Samuels (11.4 points) is shooting 50% from the field and 46.2% from three-point range as a deep-ball threat.

All of this offensive production adds up to a 78.6-point scoring average. Villanova is shooting 46.1% from the field and 38.2% from three-point range. It is pulling down a total of 33.5 rebounds a game.

While the Wildcats gave up 86 points in last Saturday’s loss to Creighton, their defense is holding opposing teams to 68.8 PPG.


Inside the Stats – UConn Huskies

  • PS/G: 71.3 (188th)
  • PA/G: 65.1 (54th)
  • Off Rtg: 106.8 (83rd)
  • Def Rtg: 97.5 (119th)

Inside the Stats – Villanova Wildcats

  • PS/G: 78.6 (47th)
  • PA/G: 68.8 (135th)
  • Off Rtg: 117.7 (5th)
  • Def Rtg: 103 (255th)

Key Players to Watch

  • CONN - R.J. Cole (12.2 PPG, 4.3 APG)
  • CONN - Tyrese Martin (12.5 PPG, 7.4 RPG)
  • NOVA - Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (15.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG)
  • NOVA - Collin Gillespie (14.1 PPG, 5.1 APG)

UConn-Villanova Predictions

The Huskies get a huge boost with the return of their top scorer to the lineup. However it is going to take more than that to get past Villanova on the road this Saturday.

Look for the Wildcats to win the game SU but I would still take the Huskies and the points to cover. Villanova (3-3 ATS) is hit or miss at home this season.

The best bet for Saturday’s contest would be the OVER on the total line. Bouknight adds some serious scoring power to the Huskies’ offense and Villanova has plenty of options to put points on the board.

  • Score Prediction: Villanova 82 UConn 77
  • Best Bets: UConn +7.5
  • Best Bets: OVER

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