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SEC off-season notes
June 1, 2006
By Brian Edwards
VegasInsider.com
Never too early to start talking football, so with that in mind, let's discuss some SEC tidbits with the 2006 campaign just three months away.
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| South Carolina has 200/1 odds to win the national title. (AP) |
| Program on the Rise: South Carolina
Steve Spurrier worked his magic during his first season with the Gamecocks, guiding the school to a second-place finish in the SEC East. This space called for South Carolina to knock off one of the Big Three in the East (Georgia, Florida and Tennessee), but we got that wrong. The Gamecocks beat Florida and Tennessee, and was 15 yards away from a potential game-winning field goal in the final minute at Georgia.
Are the 'Cocks ready to take the next step and make their debut appearance in the SEC Championship Game this season? If Ko Simpson would've stayed in school for another year, we might be poised to make that surprising call. But Simpson, the SEC's premier defensive back the last two seasons, turned pro and didn't get drafted until the fourth round.
That premature defection leaves a big hole in SC's secondary, and the guess here is that SC's overall depth is still a year away from where it needs to be. Nevertheless, if this team stays healthy, it will venture into the Swamp to face Florida with its division title hopes still alive.
Program headed South: Vanderbilt
No excuse for not going to a bowl game with Jay Cutler at QB last year. You can't lose at home to Kentucky and Middle Tennessee.
Toughest Schedule: Florida
The Gators face Auburn, LSU and Alabama from the West. Unless Ole Miss or Arkansas unseats 'Bama as the third-best team in the SEC West, that trio of foes will be the most formidable from the opposite loop. UF won't play Arkansas, Mississippi State or Ole Miss. In addition, Urban Meyer's squad has to go to Tallahassee to take on in-state rival, Florida State.
Check out this four-game stretch from Sept. 30-Oct. 28: vs. Alabama, vs. LSU, at Auburn and vs. Georgia (in Jacksonville).
Easiest Schedule: South Carolina
Here's another reason to believe the 'Cocks could be factor in the East this season. They don't have to play LSU, Alabama and Ole Miss, while getting Georgia, Auburn, Tennessee and Arkansas in Columbia. The non-conference foes are Wofford, Florida Atlantic, Middle Tennessee and Clemson.
**Five Upsets Alerts**
Fresno State at LSU (10/21) -- Pat Hill's squad nearly shocked the world at USC last year, but Reggie Bush erupted in the fourth quarter with several super-sick-joystick moves on breathtaking touchdown runs. Make no mistake, the Bulldogs won't come to the Bayou with a moral victory in mind. They'll be aiming for the outright victory.
South Carolina at Florida (11/11) -- Spurrier remains unbeaten in 13 games in this rivalry. He gave Meyer a sermon in GamePlanning 1101 last year and there's no reason to think the same thing won't happen in Gainesville. Plus, the Gamecocks will have the best player on the field, WR Sidney Rice, who torched UF's secondary on several game-turning plays last season.
LSU at Arkansas (11/24 at Little Rock) -- Everything could be at stake for LSU in this spot, including an SEC West title and a bid to a BCS bowl game. By this time, Arkansas QB Mitch Mustain should be beyond making freshman mistakes, and sophomore RB Darren McFadden could be a household name.
Georgia at Ole Miss (9/30) -- This is a letdown spot for the Dawgs, who come off a non-conference home game against Colorado with Tennessee looming the following week. Meanwhile, Brent Schaeffer should be comfortable by late September, and his scrambling ability gives the Rebels a dangerous dynamic.
Tennessee at Memphis (9/30) -- Flat spot for the Vols, who face a grueling five-game stretch after this date with the Tigers. Remember, UT always seems to struggle against Tommy West's bunch.
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| Florida QB Chris Leak has a 44/13 TD-INT ratio since 2004. (AP) |
| Five Players to Watch:
Mitch Mustain (QB/Arkansas): Biggest recruit in school history, who will have the benefit of a stud wideout (Marcus Monk) and big-time running back (Darren McFadden).
Cory Boyd (RB/South Carolina): Boyd is the between-the-tackles runner Spurrier didn't have last season. Look for him to get plenty of touches in the second half of games, when Spurrier likes to protect leads with sprint-draw plays. Boyd could be for Spurrier what Errict Rhett was at Florida in the early '90s.
Chris Leak (QB/Florida): Leak is an outstanding passer, as evidenced by a 44/13 touchdown-interception ratio the last two seasons. However, his ability to make plays at 'winning time' (vs. LSU and at Miss. St. in '04 immediately come to mind) has been shaky throughout his career. Will Meyer do a better job of catering the offense to Leak's strengths? Can Leak stay healthy with Meyer's spead attack constantly placing him in harm's way?
Erik Ainge (QB/Tennessee): After last season's debacle, Ainge is under serious pressure to produce. Will he step up like in '04 as a freshman, or will Ainge unravel in the pressure cooker of Knoxville?
D.J. Hall (WR/Alabama): Whether it be in the return game, reverses, end-arounds, quick look-ins or deep patterns to stretch the field, Mike Shula will look to get the ball to Hall early and often. He'll have to respond with big plays if the Crimson Tide are to remain among the league's elite.
Three Coaches on the Hot Seat:
Houston Nutt - The first six years of Nutt's tenure could only have been better if Clint Stoerner wouldn't have fumbled at Neyland Stadium. However, the last two years have been rough. Whether it's fair or not, Nutt knows this is a make-or-break season. And remember, Butch Davis (Arkansas native) is still unemployed.
Rich Brooks - Anything less than six wins will likely lead to a pink slip, but the schedule sets up nicely. The 'Cats should get three non-conference victories, and there are winnable games against Vandy and the Mississippi schools.
Phillip Fulmer - Some insiders think Fulmer is untouchable and that could be true. After all, he owns a 128-37 career record, two SEC titles and a national championship in 14 seasons. But rest assured, if things go awry this season, the roar for his head in Rocky Top Land will be deafening. The return of David Cutcliffe as offensive coordinator should be a big boost.
**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**
--For the first time since 1988, the SEC doesn't have any first-year coaches. There were four last year -- Urban Meyer at Florida, Steve Spurrier at South Carolina, Les Miles at LSU and Ed Orgeron at Ole Miss.
--According to Sportsbook.com, Florida has the best chance of the SEC squads to win the national title. The Gators own 10/1 odds, while Auburn (25/1), LSU (30/1), Tennessee (40/1) and Georgia (55/1) round out the top contenders. Arkansas is 180/1 and 'Bama is 200/1.
--I think the five best players in the SEC are:
1-Sidney Rice (WR/South Carolina) - Rice has it all -- size, speed, hands and heart. If he stays healthy, his numbers will be scary.
2-Brandon Siler (LB/Florida) - Siler is a meaner/nastier version of Andra Davis, who started at MLB for UF from '99-'01. Siler might not miss a tackle all season.
3-Patrick Willis (LB/Ole Miss) - Best player in the country that nobody has ever heard of, likely first-round pick after this season.
4-Darren McFadden (RB/Arkansas) - If Mustain is 'as advertised,' defenses won't be able to put eight men in the box, and that'll mean monster numbers for McFadden. And that'll spell a bowl game for the Hogs and a contract extension for Houston Nutt.
5-Kenny Irons (RB/Auburn) - Might be getting a 'little much' pre-season recognition, but he'll have a big year nonetheless.
--Not that UGA President Michael Adams needed to add another idiot move to his resume, but his efforts to get CBS to remove "The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party" from its ad campaign for the annual Florida-Georgia showdown is amusing to say the least. How does this bow-tie wearing dork still have a job in Athens after running Vince Dooley out of town and yanking UGA from the NCAA and SEC Tournaments prematurely following the Jim Harrick fiasco?
--Is Mississippi State head coach Sylvester Croom a quality coach? I don't know the answer to that question, but I do know this: He can't be judged by the Bulldogs' poor results the last two years. We'll find out if Croom is the man to turn things around in Starkville this year and next.
--Ranking the coaches:
1-Steve Spurrier
2-Mark Richt
3-Tommy Tuberville
4-Phillip Fulmer
5-Mike Shula
6-Urban Meyer
7-Houston Nutt
8-Les Miles
9-Ed Orgeron
10-Sylvester Croom
11-Rich Brooks
12-Bobby Johnson
Brian Edwards can be reached via email at briane@vegasinsider.com.
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| Mark Fox |
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| 16-6 L22, 45-25 (64%) +1,760 TY | |
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