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Farmers Insurance Open

Torrey Pines Golf Course(s)
North Course – 7, 258 yards – Par 72
South Course – 7, 698 yards – Par 72

The PGA Tour stays in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open and the big news here is that Tiger Woods is back. Tiger's return will get played up to the nines everywhere, as Torrey Pines is a course he's had quite a bit of success at throughout his career – he has won this event seven times!

But as exciting as it can be to have one of the greatest players ever back in the field, I wouldn't be rushing out to bet him just yet. He did look good in his lone event before the holidays, but him coming out of the gate and beating a full 156-man field isn't something I'm interested in doing. Take it slow with Tiger if you do like him as a betting option, the guy has been gone for so long that there is still some significant rust that needs to be shaken off.

The Farmers Insurance Open is played at two different courses for the first two days, but it's the longer, much tougher South Course that gets the spotlight on the weekend. The South Course is one where par is a good score on everything but the Par 5's, and given the length on both tracks, backing some guys with some bombing ability is generally a good way to go.

Seeing seven wins from Woods in the past solidifies that point, but with other bombers like Bubba Watson and defending champ Jon Rahm also having this trophy in their mantel, emphasizing length and accuracy is a place to start. Brandt Snedeker may be the exception to the rule though as he's won this tournament twice and also has two runner up finishes.

Given the length and difficulty of the South Course on the weekend, winning scores at this event are typically in the -10 to -14 range as there are birdies/eagles to be had on the Par 5's, but that's about it. Scrambling and Par 4 scoring are other key stats to possibly zero in on this week with your selections as well, so let's get right to this week's plays:

Odds per -

Golfers to Watch:

Hideki Matsuyama (+1600) – Matsuyama is one of the best players in the world right now and he's got all the skills to dominate at a course like this. He's long off the tee and when he's accurate as well, low numbers are sure to follow. In four PGA Tour events during this 17-18 season, he's got three Top 5 finishes and has made at least one eagle in every event. With eagles on the Par 5's at Torrey Pines key to success here, Matsuyama could very well find himself in contention come Sunday.

What I like most about Matsuyama this week is the fact that he's probably going to get a little lost in the shuffle among the guys at the top of the odds chart. Jon Rahm is the favorite as the defending champion and off his win last week. Tiger is always going to get some love at an event he's dominated in the past, and in between those two we've got Fowler, Rose, Matsuyama, and Jason Day. Of those four guys, Matsuyama might be the guy bettors tend to gravitate away from and it's never a bad thing to be on the book's side.

Tony Finau (+3300) – Finau is another guy that has all the necessary tools to find success at Torrey Pines as he's long off the tee, accurate in the long game, a solid long iron player and has consistently been one of the best scorers on Par 5's the past couple of years. Finau's biggest concern is on the greens as he can really struggle at times with the putter. But if he gets it rolling hot, or is striking the ball so well that he's got short birdie putts quite often, eventually some of those will start to drop. He finished T4 at this event a year ago and for a “bomber” that is still looking for that first significant win on Tour, there aren't many places that line up as well for him than Torrey Pines does. 33-1 on your money is well worth the risk here.

Patrick Rodgers (+12500) – If you are looking for a longshot in this field, Rodgers may be your guy, although recent form may suggest otherwise. Rogers is coming off missed cuts three of the last four times he's teed it up, but the time off he's had since being forced to withdraw with illness after a single round at the Sony Open a few weeks back should have him energized to get back out there.

Like Finau, Rodgers finished T4 at this tournament a year ago, after missing the cut here in 2016. The experience he got from being in contention to start Sunday last year – he started the final round T1 – was a great learning experience for him and he'd love to finish the job 12 months later. At these kind of absurd odds, it's hard to ignore a guy like Rodgers who's had recent success here and as long as there are no lasting effects from that illness that forced his withdrawal (I don't believe there will be otherwise he'd probably sit out this week) two weeks ago, expect Rodgers to make some significant noise at Torrey Pines.

Odds to win Farmers Insurance Open - per
Jon Rahm 7/1
Rickie Fowler 12/1
Justin Rose 14/1
Hideki Matsuyama 16/1
Jason Day 20/1
Tiger Woods 20/1
Marc Leishman 22/1
Brian Harman 28/1
Brandt Snedeker 33/1
Patrick Cantlay 33/1
Tony Finau 33/1
Charles Howell III 40/1
Phil Mickelson 40/1
Gary Woodland 40/1
Ollie Schniederjans 50/1
Patrick Reed 50/1
Kyle Stanley 50/1
Shane Lowry 50/1
Cameron Smith 50/1
Bud Cauley 50/1
Jhonattan Vegas 50/1
Brendan Steele 50/1
Xander Schauffele 50/1
Alex Noren 66/1
Charley Hoffman 66/1
Grayson Murray 66/1
J B Holmes 66/1
Adam Hadwin 66/1
Keegan Bradley 66/1
Russell Knox 66/1
Francesco Molinari 66/1
Peter Uihlein 66/1
James Hahn 80/1
Andrew Landry 80/1
Bill Haas 80/1
Kevin Streelman 80/1
J J Spaun 80/1
Si Woo Kim 80/1
John Huh 100/1
Martin Laird 100/1
Bryson Dechambeau 100/1
Emiliano Grillo 100/1
Billy Horschel 100/1
Jamie Lovemark 100/1
Chesson Hadley 100/1
Aaron Wise 125/1
Patrick Rodgers 125/1

Odds Subject to Change

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