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Valero Open - Best Bets
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Valero Texas Open
TPC San Antonio – 7,435 yards – Par 72

The PGA Tour is back in Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open as Kevin Chappell (+2500) looks to defend his title here. Chappell is actually one of the bigger names in the field this week as many of the Tour's top names really only have eyes for The PLAYERS in a few weeks, meaning this week's tournament may be a bit more wide open then some may think.

There are some well know guys like Sergio Garcia (+1200), Matt Kuchar (+1600), and Charley Hoffman (+1600) leading the field in terms of their odds, and Garcia actually had a small part in designing this course with Greg Norman years ago, so if you are looking to back one of these thoroughbreds, he might be the one to consider.

Being that we are in Texas in mid-April for this event, wind can be a major factor at TPC San Antonio, so looking into weather reports and tee times will also help when breaking down guys to back. Right now forecasts are calling for wins to be the heaviest on Thursday, but all four days should have winds between 10 and 18 mp/h.

Whether those winds are worse for the morning or afternoon waves on Thursday and Friday remains to be seen, but windy conditions might lead you to some guys with more experience on the European Tour as that's something they often deal with over there. There are plenty of guys in this field that fit that bill (another “plus” for Sergio) so do your due diligence if you can.

As far as the actual course goes, it's a rather long one at 7,400 yards and you'll need guys that can bomb the ball, score well on Par 5's, and keep their ball striking in order. Gaining strokes off the tee has some major correlation to success at this event, and with rough that isn't penal at all, length over accuracy is always the preferred choice here.

So with that in mind, let's get to a few golfers I've already pegged as guys to watch out for this week come Sunday afternoon (outside of the top guys) as these guys are great candidates for Top 10 and Top 5 futures, along with their price to win it all.

Odds per -

Golfers to Watch

Jimmy Walker (50/1) – Walker isn't exactly the first guy you'd think about when looking at guys who bomb it as his length is nothing special on Tour, but his course history here is. Walker is a past champion of this event (2015) when this event was plagued by enormously strong winds, and while he did miss the cut the following year, he's finished 13th here a year ago and had a 16th place finish back in 2014.

Walker's success here could be because his length is actually in the “Goldilocks” range for this event as in it is just right. He's long enough to not get significantly outpaced by the bombers, but short enough (and accurate enough) to not be tempted into getting out of his comfort zone on some of the longer Par 5's – three of them are either just under or above 600 yards – and put himself in serious trouble. Having grown up in Texas, and winning this event in the wind-soaked 2015 year, potential windy conditions aren't likely to phase him this week, and at 50-1 there is quite a bit of value on this past champion.

Jason Kokrak (80/1)– Kokrak is a guy that comes to mind when thinking about bombers, and while his recent form leaves much to be desired, it's also why his price is as high as it is here this week.

Kokrak leads this field in Par 5 scoring this year at 4.51 strokes and that shouldn't come as a surprise given his length. With length being paramount and a lack of accuracy not killing guys, Kokrak should find some success here as he has in the past. Last year's 67th place finish wasn't ideal, but he did finish 11th here in 2015 after a 31st in 2014, and I've already discussed how windy it was back in that 2015 year. Kokrak's 57th rank in Strokes Gained :Total is one of the better ones in the field this week and if his putter can get hot for a few days, there is no reason to think he can't find himself in contention come Sunday.

Chris Paisley (80/1) – Paisley is a name many won't be familiar with as he's typically overseas on the Euro Tour, but as I said earlier, that's not exactly a bad thing here if the wind kicks up, and his recent form simply can't be ignored.

In Paisley's last five starts he's got a win, two 5th place finishes, a T27, and a T37 which actually came at the WGC Mexico event last month. He's a guy that doesn't have the length that others will this week, but if the wind picks up this Englishman will feel right at home. With this being his first tournament in the US this year and he's never played this event before so there are some minor concerns there, but at this price it shouldn't be something to completely take you off this guy.

Odds to win Valero Texas Open - per
Sergio Garcia 12/1
Matt Kuchar 18/1
Charley Hoffman 18/1
Luke List 20/1
Ryan Moore 25/1
Adam Scott 25/1
Kevin Chappell 25/1
Billy Horschel 33/1
Brandt Snedeker 33/1
Chesson Hadley 33/1
Xander Schauffele 33/1
Ollie Schniederjans 33/1
Brendan Steele 33/1
Pat Perez 40/1
Beau Hossler 40/1
Si Woo Kim 40/1
Zach Johnson 40/1
Ryan Palmer 40/1
Jimmy Walker 40/1
Jamie Lovemark 50/1
Keegan Bradley 50/1
J.B. Holmes 50/1
Martin Laird 50/1
Scott Piercy 50/1
Kevin Streelman 50/1
Bill Haas 50/1
Julian Suri 50/1
Kevin Na 66/1
Chris Kirk 66/1
Russell Knox 66/1
Harris English 66/1
Dylan Frittelli 66/1
Shubhankar Sharma 66/1
Jim Furyk 80/1
Abraham Ancer 80/1
Jason Kokrak 80/1
John Huh 80/1
Austin Cook 80/1
Chris Paisley 80/1
Grayson Murray 80/1
Jhonattan Vegas 80/1
Peter Uihlein 80/1
Aaron Wise 100/1
Patrick Rodgers 100/1
Keith Mitchell 100/1
Brice Garnett 100/1
William McGirt 100/1
Graeme McDowell 100/1
Nick Watney 100/1
Trey Mullinax 125/1

Odds Subject to Change

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