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Arnold Palmer Invitational
Bay Hill Club - Par 72 – 7,419 yards

It was a couple of Top 5 finishes and a missed cut for the three guys I was backing last week, as both Brooks Koepka and Lucas Glover had a chance to win it on Sunday afternoon. It was yet another Honda Classic that came down to the wire on Sunday with multiple guys in it, and that's something to keep in mind fo rnext year's instalment of that tournament. Nobody ever seems out of it late on Sunday. The Florida swing continues for the Tour though, and after a visit to Jack's place last week, it's on to Arnie's place this week.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational is always one of the favorite stops on Tour for most, as it's a classic event steeped in history. The past winners list for this event is filled with Tiger Woods' name (eight time winner), and nearly everyone that has won this event has managed to get it done with the putter.

Bay Hill gives up a few more birdies then PGA National does, as all four of the Par 5's are reachable for basically the entire field. Each of the last seven winners of this tournament have finished with a score of at least -11, with six of the seven coming in at -13 or better. Water, sand and wind are the best defenses that Bay Hill has got, but seeing water on only nine holes, as compared to nearly the entire course a week ago shouldn't be too concerning for the guys if the wind is down.

Getting a hot putter is what will see guys vault to the top of the leaderboard this week, but trying to handicap who will get hot with the flatstick is an exercise in futility. Instead, you'll want guys who are accurate enough to give themselves plenty of birdie looks, guys that can score well on Par 3's because it's those holes that are some of the toughest here, and ones who can avoid the big number.

Finally, the good news for the rest of the field is that eight-time champ Tiger Woods has withdrawn early from this event, although this field is still loaded with tremendous talent. Other big names have won this event the past three years with Rory McIlroy, Marc Leishman and Jason Day as the past three champions here, but not one of them make my list this week.

Odds per -

Golfers to Watch

Bryson DeChambeau (+1600) – It was just a couple of weeks ago that I backed Bryson at this exact price in the WGC-Mexico event. That was an ugly start for Bryson, as a 56th place finish in a 70ish man no-cut event is nowhere near his standards. But this week we get him at the same odds, against a much weaker field overall, on a course he has seen before.

Bryson has actually played in this tournament twice already in his career, finishing 27th in 2016, and runner-up to McIlroy last year. Each of the past four winners of this event had a Top 20 finish here the year prior, and with the Players and Masters right around the corner, DeChambeau's got to use this week to get his form trending upwards.

In terms of skill, DeChambeau brings no worries to any part of the golf course there, and three of four rounds bring 68 or lower last year, should bring him plenty of confidence as well. It's been his play in the long game that has hurt DeChambeau of late, but he's still just five weeks removed from a string of four straight Top 10's ending, so it's not like one bad start should deter you here, especially at the same odds against this lesser field.

Luke List (+6600) – List is a guy that tends to be a popular pick among the analytics community because statistically he's great basically across the board, outside of one category – putting.
List is a guy who's long off tee, is great at statistical categories like Strokes Gained Off-the-tee (4th in 2019), Tee-to-Green (15th in 2019) and Overall (23rd), but just think how great his results would be if he could putt (127th). But you can't knock a guy for continuously giving himself opportunities at birdies etc, as eventually one event he will find a way to put it all together and claim that first PGA Tour victory.
Along with stat lines that should bode well at Bay Hill (aside from the putting), List does fit the recent winner's trend at this event, as each of the past four winners here have finished with at least a Top 20 finish the year before. List finished 7th here a season ago after a 17th back in 2017, so it's not like he hasn't had success on the greens here in the past.
The putting is always going to be a big “if” for List, but the guy is too good of a ball striker not to break 

Charley Hoffman (+12500) – Hoffman is another guy who's already found time to deal with some early season struggles and unlike Schwartzel, they may not be fixed in Hoffman's case. He's got a 20th place finished sandwiched between a pair of consecutive missed cuts in his last five starts, and it's those poor efforts that have his odds where they currently are. However, a couple of weeks off from competition, and a return to a venue with great memories for Hoffman might be what he needs to turn this season around.

Like DeChambeau, Hoffman has a recent runner-up finish on his resume from Bay Hill, finishing T2 here back in 2017. Hoffman was able to follow that up with a 14th finish here last year, as he's been a guy for years now that tends to play his best golf of the season between March and May.

Bay Hill has treated Hoffman well in the past, and if he can just find a way to get his iron game going again, this +12500 price could feel like a steal if he finds himself with a chance on Sunday here for the 3rd straight year.

Arnold Palmer Invitational - per
Rory McIlroy 13/2
Justin Rose 10/1
Brooks Koepka 11/1
Rickie Fowler 12/1
Jason Day 14/1
Bryson DeChambeau 16/1
Hideki Matsuyama 22/1
Marc Leishman 25/1
Francesco Molinari 33/1
Patrick Reed 33/1
Tommy Fleetwood 33/1
Phil Mickelson 40/1
Billy Horschel 50/1
Bubba Watson 50/1
Charles Howell 50/1
Henrik Stenson 50/1
Ian Poulter 50/1
Keegan Bradley 50/1
Louis Oosthuizen 50/1
Lucas Glover 50/1
Tyrrell Hatton 50/1
Byeong Hun An 66/1
Daniel Berger 66/1
Hao Tong Li 66/1
J B Holmes 66/1
Jason Kokrak 66/1
Luke List 66/1
Michael Thompson 66/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 66/1
Si Woo Kim 66/1
Zach Johnson 66/1
Abraham Ancer 80/1
Adam Hadwin 80/1
Cameron Champ 80/1
Charl Schwartzel 80/1
Keith Mitchell 80/1
Kevin Kisner 80/1
Kevin Na 80/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 80/1
Matt Every 80/1
Matt Wallace 80/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 80/1
Scott Piercy 80/1
Shane Lowry 80/1
Sungjae Im 80/1
Aaron Wise 100/1
Brandt Snedeker 100/1
Aaron Baddeley 125/1
Beau Hossler 125/1
C T Pan 125/1
Charley Hoffman 125/1
Chesson Hadley 125/1
Danny Lee 125/1
Danny Willett 125/1
Graeme McDowell 125/1
Harold Varner III 125/1
J T Poston 125/1
Jhonattan Vegas 125/1
Joaquin Niemann 125/1
Kyle Stanley 125/1
Martin Kaymer 125/1
Pat Perez 125/1
Patrick Rodgers 125/1
Ryan Armour 125/1
Ryan Moore 125/1
Steve Stricker 125/1
Talor Gooch 125/1
Thorbjorn Olesen 125/1
Brian Gay 150/1
Carlos Ortiz 150/1
Jimmy Walker 150/1
Kevin Streelman 150/1
Patton Kizzire 150/1
Sam Burns 150/1
Scott Stallings 150/1
Stewart Cink 150/1

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