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At the Gate - Sunday
November 10, 2012
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
We have a good betting card on tap at Aqueduct on Sunday which features a pair of New York Stallion Series races for juveniles.
The third race on the card is the $125,000 Great White Way, which drew a field of seven two-year-old colts and geldings who will go six furlongs on the main track.
It is tough to separate the top three, with Meeker Avenue the 8-5 morning line favorite coming off a sharp maiden score in his debut.
The son of Read the Footnotes showed good early speed and went on to win by nearly three lengths in a race taken off the turf. The gelding gets a jockey upgrade from Jose Espinoza to leading rider Ramon Dominguez.
Stoneless (3-1) came up short in a couple of stakes at Finger Lakes, and the Gary Contessa trained Laila's Jazz (7-2), who faded to finish sixth in the state bred Bongard figure to be the main threats to the likely favorite.
The seventh race is the $125,000 Fifth Avenue, which drew a field of seven two-year-old fillies who will also go six furlongs.
P J's Superego is the 2-1 morning line favorite off a quick maiden win at Parx, but the undefeated Matchmadeinheaven (3-1), a two time stakes winner against state breds may end up the betting favorite by the time they load them in the gate.
As you can see below, I am taking a long look at Nonnie Connie (7-2), who broke her maiden last out in her second career start despite racing against the track bias that day.
Sunday's Best Plays Report includes my eight strongest plays from Aqueduct and Churchill Downs
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Here is today's opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
6 Visions of Annette 5-2
4 Leveragedtothehilt 6-1
2 Kiss the Lady 3-1
8 Dulcedumbre 7-2
Analysis: Visions of Annette makes her debut for the Schettino barn that does good work with debut runners (19% winners with a +ROI) but sometimes gets overlooked. With Ramon aboard this gal may not. She was a $275K Keeneland purchase, by Distorted Humor (16% winners with debut runners) out of a General Meeting mare that has dropped five foals to race, a pair of winners, both stakes winners, top earner Saucey Evening ($368K). The filly has solid looking works and looks ready to fire at first asking.
Leveragedtothehilt is a $42K Ocala purchase making her debut for the Violette barn that is 14% winners with firsters. The filly is by Majestic Warrior (11% winners with debut runners from a limited sampling) out of a Regal Classic mare that has dropped a couple of foals to race, both winners, top earner France based Malicia (2 for 5, $47K). She debuts with lasix and has a couple of gate drills that look decent enough.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 4,6 / 2,4,6,8
TRI: 4,6 / 2,4,6,8 / 1,2,4,6,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 The NYSS Fifth Avenue (3:14 ET)
2 Nonnie Connie 7-2
7 Gee Linz 12-1
4 P J's Superego 2-1
1 Matchmadeinheaven 3-1
Analysis: Nonnie Connie faces winners for the first time here after breaking her maiden last out in her second career start. The filly battled for the early lead over the muddy surface and drew off late to win by 5 1/4 lengths over a racing surface that was playing more favorably to outside stalkers and closers. She looks capable of moving forward off that effort and she owns solid early and mid pace numbers. With four of these exiting the Joe Gimma (which was run the same day as her maiden score) she may end up getting overlooked on the tote.
Gee Linz is one of those coming out of the Gimma and she faded to finish a well beaten 12th. She tracked the early pace while down along a deep rail and faded, sent off at just under 7-1 in the field. Two back she stepped outside of the state bred ranks to beat starter optional claimers. She is better than she showed last out and is in good hands with the Jacobson barn that grabbed her for $50K out of her debut score. She bounces back here at a price.
Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,7 / 1,2,4,7
TRI: 2,7 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Churchill Downs:
CD Race 9 Alw $52,000N1X (4:39 ET)
11 Resoundingly 6-1
7 Boomer 6-1
1 Make a Fortune 3-1
5 Loud Pipes 5-1
Analysis: Resoundingly was a much the best winner last out against $25K non winners of three on the turf at Arlington Park. The filly was claimed out of the race by the Hess barn that is 17% winners first off the claim. This gal steps into a tougher spot here facing Alw-1 foes but has landed in the exacta in 7 of her 12 lifetime starts on turf and has had enough time to avoid bouncing off her career top. The 6-1 morning line looks more than fair in this spot as she takes on the boys.
Boomer also made his last start at Arlington, setting the early fractions and unable to match strides late with the winner in a runner up finish on the poly, which was his first go against winners. He broke her maiden two back in a game effort and this will be his first go on turf. He has a decent enough turf pedigree, by Street Cry out of a Salt Lake mare that has dropped one turf winner. The colt still appears to have some upside.
Wagering
WIN: #11 to win at 4-1 or better.
EX: 7,11 / 1,5,7,11
TRI: 7,11 / 1,5,7,11 / 1,5,7,11,12
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R3: #5 Madam I'm Adam 10-1
R5: #10 Black Onyx 12-1
R6: #4 Devil's Cave 8-1
R7: #7 Gee Linz 12-1
R8: #10 Bay Head Beauty 8-1
R8: #2 Lemon Splendor 10-1
R9: #7 Shadon 12-1
R9: #11 Call the Clock 10-1
Good luck today!
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HORSE RACING EXPERT |
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Mike Dempsey
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track!
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HORSE RACING EXPERT |
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Jerry Sessa
Jerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins.
Jerry's is looking to repeat his 2012 Triple Crown success, when he selected the winning horses for The Preakness and The Belmont Stakes.
Jerry looks forward to working with everyone and making money for anyone who invests in his picks on a daily basis.
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