At the Gate - Saturday
March 2, 2013
By Mike Dempsey
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The mutual field was bet down to 8-5 on Friday, the first day of Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager (KDFW) which runs until Sunday.
With $49,845 in the pool, the mutuel field took $15,095 of the action. The lowest price among the 23 separate betting interests through Friday is Verrazano at 10-1. The Todd Pletcher trainee is undefeated in two career starts and will be making his stakes debut in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) next Saturday.
A trio of runners stand at 12-1 in Pool 2: Flashback, Itsmyluckyday, and Orb.
Two of the 23 betting interests will be in action on Saturday in the $400,000 Gotham at Aqueduct. The Pletcher trained Overanalyze is the 5-2 morning line favorite in the Gotham and is at 42-1 in the KDFW.
The undefeated Vyjack is 3-1 on the morning line for the Gotham and is currently 57-1 in the KDFW. A big effort by either runner and the price figures to head south.
If you are looking for value let’s wait until Sunday to place a wager to see how betting shakes out over the next 24 hours.
Aqueduct has one of the best cards we have seen this winter on tap for Saturday. In addition to the Gotham we have a couple of Grade 2 races, the $200,000 Top Flight Handicap and the $200,000 Tom Fool Handicap.
I could not resist doing a little Santa Anita ‘capping, and my Best Plays include the late Pick 4. The sequence includes the $300,000 Frank E. Kilroe (G1) and the $750,000 Santa Anita Handicap (G1).
My Best Plays Report for Saturday includes my strongest plays from Aqueduct and Santa Anita Park including the Gotham and Santa Anita Handicap.
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Here is today’s opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $12,500B (12:50 ET)
3 Talented Whiz 7-2
7 Ultimo Principe 5-2
8 Sunshine Valentino 20-1
4 Six Flings 6-1
Analysis: Talented Whiz finished ahead of three of these he faces again when a close up third last out at this level. The colt prompted the early pace, drifted inward and brushed a foe in the stretch when getting a hit of the jock's stick and then was carried out late by a foe and only missed the runner up spot by a neck. The winner went gate to wire over a very speed friendly racing strip that day. He looks back on track after getting eased two back.
Ultimo Principe drops out of a restricted $20,000 claimer where the gelding stalked the early pace and weakened to finish fifth in his first go off the claim by the Rice barn. Two back for RRod this guy was beaten just a head for the top spot after setting the early fractions. The gelding has landed in the exacta in 6 of 9 starts on the inner track and his four previous speed figs while in the RRod barn are good enough to beat this group. He fits here but has not won since the summer of '11.
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,7 / 3,4,7,8
TRI: 3,7 / 3,4,7,8 / 3,4,7,8,11
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 7 The Top Flight Hcp G2 (3:38 ET)
8 Sisterly Love 3-1
4 Summer Applause 5-2
1 Twice the Lady 5-1
7 Withgreatpleasure 8-1
Analysis: Sisterly Love prompted the early pace and weakened to finish third last out in the Houston Ladies Classic in her first go around two turns. She won her first three career starts, zipping through her first two allowance conditions two and three back at Gulfstream Park, both trips at a one turn mile. The mare owns solid early and mid pace numbers and speed has been a real good asset here on the inner at this distance. She picks up Cohen and she looks quick enough she can get clear early from her outside post and is a danger to take this group gate to wire.
Summer Applause exits the same race as our top pick, which was her first go off an 8 1/2 month layoff. The saddle slipped and the jock came out of the irons, so the race is just a toss. She was good enough to win the Rachel Alexandra (G3) last February at Fair Grounds and then was beaten just a head by Believe You Can in the Fair Ground Oaks (G2). Believe You Can went on to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1) in her next start. She figures to move forward second off the bench and she makes her first start here for the Chad Brown barn that is 27% winners with newcomers to the barn.
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,8 / 1,4,7,8
TRI: 4,8 / 1,4,7,8 / 1,3,4,7,8
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Santa Anita Park:
SA Race 9 The Frank E. Kilroe (4:00 PT)
8 Mr Commons 3-1
3 Suggestive Boy 5-2
1 Silentio 9-2
4 Vagabond Shoes 12-1
Analysis: Mr Commons makes his first start since running fifth in the Breeders' Cup Mile (G1), beaten three lengths for the top spot by Wise Dan. He only won one of seven starts last year, taking the Arcadia (G2), but he was in the mix in most of his starts including a neck loss in this race last year. This guy has done some of his best work over the turf here, landing in the exacta in five of seven trips. He put in a bullet drill on Feb. 23 and is in good hands with the Shirreffs barn that is 25% winners (with a +ROI) with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
Suggestive Boy won the Arcadia (G2) last out over five foes he meets up with again today. The five year old stalked the early pace from the outside, came with a four wide rally and finished up well while drifting inward late. This guy won four Group 1 races in Argentina and looks capable of moving forward here in his second start off a three month break.
WIN: #8 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 3,8 / 1,3,4,8
TRI: 3,8 / 1,3,4,8 / 1,3,4,7,8
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #8 Sunshine Valentino 20-1
R2: #11 Winning Gold 20-1
R6: #3 Jonrah 20-1
R7: #7 Withgreatpleasure 8-1
R8: #7 Hooked Forever 10-1
R8: #8 Dark Roast 10-1
R9: #3 Saturday’s Charm 10-1
R10: #8 Elnaawi 8-1
R10: #6 Siete de Oros 15-1
R10: #9 Sky Captain 8-1
R11: #3 Tough All Day 8-1
Good luck today!
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
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Jerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins.
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