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At the Gate - Thursday
March 20, 2013
By Mike Dempsey
VegasInsider.com
For the first time since January we got to spend Wednesday wagering on the Big A, and it turned into a profitable day with four winners on top on the nine race card as well as six recommended exactas.
The exactas paid $14.20, $39.60, $9.80, $22.80, $23.80 and $15.80. We did not exactly get rich, but it was one of those days where I just could not come up with many longshots.
My Live Longshots list yesterday included just two runners, the shortest list of the meeting. In the opener Warrior Move made the list with a 15-1 morning line and she was sent off at 12-1.
Tracking the early pace from the rail under jockey Jacqueline Davis, the filly slipped up the rail heading for home and looks as if she would be right in the mix, but she took a bad step and Davis pulled her up, and the filly was vanned off.
The feature today is the $75,000 Compelling Word, a one-mile race on the inner track for New York breds which drew another in a long line of short fields in recent overnight stakes at Aqueduct.
The race drew a compact field of six, but it could be a compelling race if we can beat Saginaw, who figures to be a short price for the David Jacobson barn. The seven-year-old has won 10 races in 13 starts since the barn claimed him for $30,000 last year.
As you can see below I am going to attempt to beat him for the top spot with Awesome Vision.
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Here is today’s opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Clm $30,000N2L (12:50 ET)
6 Hundred Acre Wood 5-1
5 Veturia 6-5
7 Seven Dreams 8-1
2 Caution Sign 9-5
Analysis: Hundred Acre Wood stalked the early pace and made a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot last out at this level, beaten a length for the top spot. The filly caught a racing strip that was kind to inside speed that day. She was also cutting back from two route races in her previous starts. CVel sticks and this gal should be tighter today and figures to be a decent price in this spot.
Veturia set the early fractions and could not match strides in the stretch with the winner in a runner up finish at Philly against Alw-1 foes in her U.S. debut. She broke her maiden two back on turf at Epsom by a nose in a field of six. Now she lands with the Kenneally barn and comes back off a 2 1/2 month break. She fits here but the 6-5 morning line is on the light side.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 5,6 / 2,5,6,7
TRI: 5,6 / 2,5,6,7 / 2,4,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Compelling Word (4:22 ET)
6 Awesome Vision 6-1
1 Saginaw 7-5
4 Johannesburg Smile 2-1
5 Mine Over Matter 5-1
Analysis: Awesome Vision takes his first shot at stakes company here and runs into a toughie in Saginaw, but this colt looks as if he may be tough here and will offer more value for the top spot. He has won 4 of his 6 career starts, a trio of those coming on the inner track. The colt earned a career top last out beating Alw-1 optional claimers and has passed his first two state bred conditions. He cuts back to a mile here but did break his maiden on the surface here at the distance and won a one turn mile race as well on the main track.
Saginaw stretches back out to a mile after a game win last out in the state bred Hollies Hughes at six furlongs. The gelding has been really tough to beat since the Jacobson barn claimed him for $30,000 last March. He has won 10 races for the barn in 13 outings. He loves the inner track and has won 10 of 14 starts at the distance. The barn is 20% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
Wagering
WIN: #6 to win at 7-2 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,4,6
TRI: no play
Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Aqueduct
R1: #7 Seven Dreams 8-1
R3: #6 Puget Sound 12-1
R6: #3 Game Token 8-1
R7: #5 Toque 8-1
Good luck today!
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HORSE RACING EXPERT |
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Mike Dempsey
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track!
Mike’s Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card.
Join Mike each day with daily picks from Belmont Park and Churchill Downs. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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HORSE RACING EXPERT |
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Jerry Sessa
Jerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins.
Jerry's is looking to repeat his 2012 Triple Crown success, when he selected the winning horses for The Preakness and The Belmont Stakes.
Jerry looks forward to working with everyone and making money for anyone who invests in his picks on a daily basis.
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