The Shug McGaughey trained Orb showed on Saturday afternoon that the buzz the colt created all week at Churchill Downs was well deserved, rallying over the sloppy Churchill Downs stretch to win the 139th running of the Kentucky Derby by 2 ½ lengths.
The colt ended up the betting favorite after sitting at third in the wagering after Friday, returning $12.80 for a $2 wager and giving jockey Joel Rosario and trainer Shug McGaughey their first Derby win.
Rain fell throughout the afternoon, and Orb had no trouble handling the off going. The colt got a perfect trip and was the beneficiary of a hot early pace.
Longshot Golden Soul rallied for second at 34-1, saving ground early and angling out in the stretch. Third was Revolutionary, who followed Golden Soul much of the trip along the inside, with jockey Calvin Borel having to put the colt on hold briefly, taking the rail home to finish a length behind the runner up.
The $2 exacta returned a hefty $981.60 and the $2 trifecta returned $6,925.60.
It was a rough day all around for the bankroll, made worse by the fact I flip flopped my top picks early in the week. With Orb getting all of the attention all week I thought he would get sent off at about 9-2, and I thought we could get 8-1 or 9-1 on Revolutionary.
With a slightly better trip I thought Borel could have overtaken Golden Soul for the runner up spot, and the exacta would have paid around $72.00.
The day also got worse with the scratch of my top pick Point of Entry in the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic. I was really looking forward to seeing him take on 2012 Horse of the Year Wise Dan, who went on to win impressively by 4 ¾ lengths.
Churchill Downs is dark today so we will head out to Belmont Park for today’s betting action.
Analysis: Capivara makes his debut for the Pletcher barn, one of two firsters in here along with uncoupled Sweetness Galore. The filly has a solid pedigree, by Unbridled's Song out of a Dynaformer mare that has dropped six winners including a pair of turf winners, her top earning sib the dirt stakes winner Strong Contender ($618,000). The filly has solid works spending the winter at Palm Meadows and she debuts with lasix. The barn is 32% winners (with a +ROI) with first time starters.
Precarious is going to be the favorite in here. She made her debut at Gulfstream park going nine furlongs on the grass, dueling for the early lead and holding on to the runner up spot in a good effort at 12-1. Only two have come out of that race to run back, a third and a ninth. She does not need to move forward much off her debut to win here but is going to be a light price.
WIN: #1 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,2 / 1,2,4,5
TRI: 1,2 / 1,2,4,5 / 1,2,3,4,5
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 7 Md Sp Wt (4:13 ET) 4 Loomin' Lori Lou 3-1 5 Rosie's Song 12-1 9 Genteela 20-1 1 Spinit to Winit 4-1
Analysis: Loomin' Lori Lou is coming off a runner up finish in her debut tracking the early pace while down along the inside but no match for a 6 3/4 length winner. The Chad Brown barn usually does not have the fully cranked first time out and hits at a 29% clip with second out maidens. The filly does not need to move forward much off her debut effort to pick up her diploma in this spot.
Rosie's Song makes her debut for the Jerkens barn that is 13% winners with first time starters. The filly is by Songandaprayer (11% winners with debut runners) out of a Leo Castelli barn that has dropped seven foals to race, four winners top earner stakes winner Win With Beck ($370,577). The filly debuts with lasix and a solid looking work tab capped off by a bullet drill on April 29 over the training track.
WIN: #4 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 1,4,5,9
TRI: 4,5 / 1,4,5,9 / 1,4,5,7,9
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R3: #2 Sharon Spaghetti 10-1
R4: #7 Primary Focus 15-1
R6: #5 Groomedforvictory 8-1
R7: #5 Rosie’s Song 12-1
R7: #9 Genteela 20-1
R9: #6 Lady On the Run 15-1
R10: #13 Winmor Gold 12-1
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike each day with daily picks from Aqueduct, Gulfstream and Santa Anitaor you can get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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