The holiday week begins and at Belmont Park we have a good 10-race card on Wednesday that features the $100,000 Princess Dixie for state bred fillies and mares that will go one mile on the main track.
A field of seven will line up with The Tom Bush trained Beautiful But Blue the 5-2 morning line favorite. The filly is one of three to exit the Dancing Renee on June 1 which was won by Clear Passaj. The filly makes her second start off a 6 ½ month layoff after a productive three year old campaign.
She won three of eight starts and ran third in the Test (G1) last summer at Saratoga.
I am looking for Miss Valentine (7-2) to bounce back off her fourth place finish in the race as the beaten favorite. She is a much better filly than she showed last out, having won her three previous starts, all stakes against New York breds.
Coming up on Thursday we get a trio of stakes led by the $150,000 Poker (G3) which drew a field of seven led by Data Link, who is the 6-5 morning line favorite. The Shug McGaughey trainee makes his first start since running second to 2012 Horse of the Year Wise Dan in then 46 Makers Mile (G1) at Keeneland on April 12 at Keeneland.
Wise Dan came back last Saturday night to capture the Firecracker Handicap (G2) at Churchill Downs for his seventh win in a row.
The biggest threats to Data Link appear to be the speedy King Kreesa (4-1), who is coming off a gate to wire score in the New York bred Kingston, and Howe Great, who was fourth in the Dixie (G2) at Pimlico on Preakness Day.
I will have my selections and analysis for the Poker in tomorrow’s column.
Here is today’s opening race from Belmont Park to get the day off to a good start:
BEL Race 1 Clm $20,000B (1:05 ET) 1 Silky Saint 6-1 3 Melody Lin 5-2 4 Maggie R 3-1 6 Mile Margaux 6-1
Analysis: Silky Saint is the lone runner in the field here that has beaten winners, taking a $20,000 non-winners of two or three year old race two back in her first start against winners. Last out she stepped up a notch to the non-winners of three level and she faded to finish 10th after dueling for the early lead. She drops back to the non-winners of two level here and is reunited with Maragh who was aboard two back for her win. The 6-1 morning line looks generous.
Melody Lin broke her maiden last out for a $20,000 tag in her 10th attempt and first for the Rice barn that claimed her for $35,000 two back. The runner up and seventh place finisher exited her last outing to win next out. She looks back on track after a ninth place finish two back when cutting back to seven furlongs.
WIN: #1 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,3,4,6
TRI: 1,3 / 1,3,4,6 / 1,3,4,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Belmont Park:
BEL Race 8 The Princess Dixie (4:45 ET) 7 Miss Valentine 7-2 6 Lady On the Run 4-1 3 Beautiful But Blue 5-2 4 Mischief Maker 3-1
Analysis: Miss Valentine had a three race win streak snapped last out when she checked in fourth in the state bred Dancing Renee at seven furlongs where she was the beaten favorite. She regressed in her second start off a five month layoff and now stretches back out to a better distance at one mile where she is five for seven in her career. She is a three time winner over the main track here and the Clement barn is 26% winners moving runners from sprint to route.
Lady On the Run was beaten just a head last out as she exits the same race as our top pick. The filly stalked the early pace, made a good middle move and altered course to the outside and was herded out farther by a foe and finished up well when clear. The mare has not missed picking up a check running over the main track here (9-3-4-2) and should get an honest enough pace to run at here. She has done her best running shorter but her last two trips going a one turn mile fit here.
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 6,7 / 3,4,6,7
TRI: 6,7 / 3,4,6,7 / 2,3,4,6,7
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R3: #3 Tanglewood Tale 8-1
R4: #1 Miss Frost 10-1
R5: #2 Quintile 10-1
R7: #1 Isn’tlovejustgrand 12-1
R9: #9 Slamarama 8-1
R10: #4 Yacantmakethisup 10-1
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike daily with top picks from Aqueduct or Gulfstream Park. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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