We have a Pick 6 carryover of $245,278 for Wednesday and I was a little late getting my report up, but I have a really good excuse. Down here in Florida we have had nothing but rain the past two weeks.
Tuesday afternoon the sun actually came out for the first time and I had to go outside and see what the sun felt like. I was accompanied by the Spa past performances, so it was not like I was goofing off, I just moved my office outside for a couple of hours.
The Pick 6 sequence kicks off with the fifth race at 3:08 ET and there are no free squares. The fifth is a $20,000 maiden claimer on turf that drew ten fillies and mares. The Mike Mareina entry of Work N Flirt and Malibu Queen are the 8-5 morning line favorite but they look beatable.
The sixth race is a $100,000 optional claimer that drew a really strong field including graded stakes caliber runners Turralure, Beau Choix and Mr. Commons.
The seventh is another maiden claimer on the turf, the 5 ½ sprint for $25,000 fillies and mares that drew a field of 10. The morning line favorite is the Rudy Rodriguez trained Blue Ballerina at 5-2, but the barn has been on the chilly side and she has already come up short 10 times.
The eighth race is a $35,000 optional claimer for non-winners of three and it is the shortest field with just six runners. Some Pick 6 players may look to this short field in search of a single, but it is an evenly matched group.
The Lake George (G2) is the featured race of the day and as you can below I landed on the second choice Kitten’s Dumplings. The Mike Maker trainee is coming off wins in the Edgewood and Regret (G3) in her last two starts.
If we are alive going into the nightcap, I hope we have several live runners on the ticket. It is a full field of a dozen going to the post in a $35,000 maiden claimer in a 5 ½ furlong turf sprint.
The likely favorite is going to be Where’s Danny, who makes his second start since arriving in the U.S. The gelding checked in second last out for a $25,000 tag off an eight month layoff for the Eddie Kenneally barn.
Analysis: Leilani's Ticket dueled for the early lead and weakened to finish fourth last out against state bred Alw-1 optional claimers last out in his first go off the claim by the Galluscio barn. Two back this guy won at this condition in the slop as the chalk. He has landed in the exacta in half of his 14 career starts and the cut back here to six furlongs should suit.
Much Stronger cuts back from a mile where the colt pressed the early pace in the mud and tired to finish sixth against $50,000 starter optional claimers. This guy is the lone three time winner in the field, his last victory coming against $40,000 starter optional claimers back in April at the Big A going a mile. He owns solid early and mid pace numbers and looks capable of handling the cut back to a sprint here. The Jacobson barn is 22% winners moving runners from route to sprint.
WIN: #7 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,7 / 1,2,4,7
TRI: 4,7 / 1,2,4,7 / 1,2,3,4,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Saratoga:
SAR Race 9 The Lake George G2 (5:20 ET) 6 Kitten's Dumplings 5-2 1 Watsdachances 4-1 2 Tapicat 2-1 4 Maximova 6-1
Analysis: Kitten’s Dumplings comes into the race off back to back stakes wins at Churchill Downs, taking the Edgewood two back and last out winning the Regret (G3) as the chalk. In her last outing she was outrun in the early going, came with a five run and finished up strongly to win by 2 ¼ lengths. Four fillies have come out of the Regret run back and three of them finished second in stakes in their next starts. Runner up Praia was second in the Virginia Oaks (G3), fourth place finisher Broken Spell was the runner up in the restricted My Princess Jess here at the Spa, and seventh place finisher Seaneen Girl landed in the bottom half of the exacta in the Iowa Oaks (G3) in her next outing. Our top pick broke her maiden over the Spa turf in her career and she catches a group here with plenty of early zip signed up. Joel Rosario sticks for the Mike Maker barn that is 1 for 12 so far at the meeting.
Watsdachances returns off a two month break here after checking in second in the Sands Point (G2) last out at Belmont Park in her second start off a 5 ½ month layoff. The winner of the race was Discreet Marq, who came back to win the New York bred Eventail in her next outing on July 4 at Belmont Park. She also has a win over the Spa turf, taking the PG Johnson here last summer at this distance. She should get a good tracking trip sitting just off what is going to be a lively early pace.
Tapicat is making her first start since taking the field gate to wire to win the Florida Oaks (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs on Feb. 2. She beat our top pick that day by 2 ¾ lengths. She is perfect in three starts on turf, breaking her maiden and passing her first allowance condition at Gulfstream Park. She was pricey in the sales ring, going for $725,000 and is in good hands with Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott, who is 21% winners with runners coming back off a 61-180 day layoff.
WIN: #6 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 1,6 / 1,2,4,6
TRI: 1,6 / 1,2,4,6 / 1,2,4,5,6
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike daily with top picks from Belmont, Churchill Downs or grab winners from Keeneland. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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