BC - Juvenile Fillies
October 27, 2013
By Anthony Stabile
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Welcome to Stabile’s 2013 Breeders’ Cup Breakdown, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 1st and Saturday, November 2nd at Santa Anita in Arcadia, CA. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY on VegasInsider.com.
Breeders’ Cup Facts and Figures
Distance: 1 1/16 miles
Age: 2YO fillies
Date: Saturday, Nov. 2
Time: 3:05 p.m. EDT
Open Mind, Go For Wand, Meadow Star and Silverbulletday are some of the fantastic young ladies to have captured this event. My Flag splashed home in the mud to win in 1995 before her daughter Storm Flag Flying took the 2002 renewal at Arlington Park. With favorites winning at a 60% clip, it is by far the chalkiest Breeders’ Cup event.
Favorites: 17 for 29 (60%)
Shortest: $2.40 (Meadow Star, 1990) *Shortest price in history of the Breeders’ Cup*
Highest: $96 (Caressing, 2000)
Front Runners: Artemis Agrotera, Scandalous Act, She’s a Tiger
Mid-pack: Ria Antonia, Secret Compass, Untapable
Closers: Concave, Designer Legs, Rosalind, Sweet Reason
The two major preps that figure to have the biggest impact on this race are the Frizette at Belmont and the Chandelier at Santa Anita. Luckily, we have the one two finishers from both races to duke it out in here.
The complexion of the Frizette changed just after the start when SWEET REASON swerved in towards the break in the rail of the mile chute at Belmont and was left even further behind than she normally is. Amazingly she managed to gather herself and come running through the stretch to finish second for trainer Leah Gyarmati.
Before the Frizette debacle, her first on a dry track, Sweet Reason broke her maiden from far back, and then won the Spinaway by daylight. Both races were run at Saratoga over a sloppy track.
While Sweet Reason was overcoming a ton of adversity, including an inside speed biased course, ARTEMIS AGROTERA took serious advantage of it all.
Making her first start since galloping in her debut by almost a dozen lengths against New York breds at Saratoga for trainer Mike Hushion, Artemis Agrotera sat just off the early pace in the Frizette, made the lead approaching the far turn, then dug in gamely when Sweet Reason came calling to win by a 1 ¼ lengths.
Now, both fillies will need to go past a mile and handle two turns for the first time, a pair of issues neither SECRET COMPASS nor SHE’S A TIGER have to worry about, as they both contested the 1 1/16 miles Chandelier last out.
She’s a Tiger entered the Chandelier off a gutsy score in the Del Mar Debutante and had won three of four starts overall while Secret Compass, fourth in the Del Mar Debutante, owned just a maiden win from three starts
The two sat just off the early pace and raced in tandem most of the way until Jeff Bonde trained She’s a Tiger grabbed a narrow lead turning for home. But Bob Baffert’s Secret Compass kept on coming and eventually wore She’s a Tiger down to win by a head.
CONCAVE will be making her two turn and dirt debut coming off a third place finish in the Del Mar Debutante run over a synthetic course. Concave won on turf at first asking at Hollywood Park before coming from just off the pace to win the Sorrento, also at Del Mar.
DESIGNER LEGS started her career with three straight victories, including one via DQ in the Adirondack at Saratoga but hasn’t come close in her last two in the Spinaway and Alcibiades run over a sloppy track and synthetic surface, respectively. She’s perfect in two starts on dry dirt, though those races were at Canterbury Park and Prairie Meadows.
RIA ANTONIA broke her maiden in the second start of her career against the boys while sprinting over the Woodbine Polytrack but hasn’t come close against the gals in her other three starts, all stakes, including the Frizette last out where she finished fifth.
ROSALIND has hit the board in all three starts, all run over different surfaces. She broke her maiden in her debut on the grass at Ellis Park, closed well to finish third in the Pocahontas then finished a fast closing second in the Alcibiades when adding Lasix. It’s worth noting her success without Lasix since it is not allowed in any of the four Juvenile races.
SCANDALOUS ACT has taken the Awesome Feather route, the one by way of the Florida Stallion Series, to the race this season. Scandalous Act split the first two decisions of her career before adding blinkers to win those three restricted stakes of Florida breds by a combined 22 lengths, including the two turn My Dear Girl by 5 ¾ lengths last out.
UNTAPABLE will be making her first start in 54 days in the Juvenile Fillies and has only worked a handful of times since her last race, an off the pace score in the Pocahontas. Prior to that start, Untapable broke her maiden in her debut sprinting on the lead in late June while racing on the lead.
I’m very curious to see how the wagering plays out in here. It’s tough for me to separate the top four and I think it’ll be tough for the public to as well. I think it’s going to come down to a good old East Coast/West Coast decision because using all four is foolish for your bankroll.
Scandalous Act has already won four times and around two turns impressively. She should be on or near the lead over a course that historically plays kindly to speed. Take a flyer at 12-1 or higher.
HORSE RACING EXPERT
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