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BC - Filly & Mare Turf

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Welcome to Stabile’s 2013 Breeders’ Cup Breakdown, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 1st and Saturday, November 2nd at Santa Anita in Arcadia, CA. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY on VegasInsider.com.

Breeders’ Cup Facts and Figures

 
Distance: 1 ¼ miles on turf
Purse: $2,000,000
Age: Fillies and Mares, 3-Year-Olds and up
Date: Saturday, Nov 2
Time: 3:43 p.m. EDT
 
The History
 
Ouija Board won it in 2004 and 2006 and was stopped by Intercontinental in 2005 when she was second. Her trainer Ed Dunlop and the late Bobby Frankel each won two runnings while Kieran Fallon and Jerry Bailey have each ridden a pair of winners.
 
Favorites: 4 for 14 (31%)
Shortest: $3.80 (Ouija Board, 2004)
Highest: $94.00 (Shared Account, 2010)
U.S based: 9/Foreign based: 5
The champ is here? No
 
The Scenario
 
Front Runners: Laughing,
Mid-pack: Alterite, Dank, Emollient, Marketing Mix, Romantica, Tiz Flirtatious
Closers: Kitten’s Dumplings, Lady of Shamrock, Qushchi
 
The Best
 
Should she be able to overcome the fact that her connections admitted that she is a notoriously bad shipper, LAUGHING appears to hold a tactical edge over this field as she appears to be loose on the lead when you study the PPs.
 
An underachiever coming into this season as she was nothing more than a G3 stakes winner, Laughing has really turned it around, winning all four of her starts in 2013. She sat just off the pace to win the Eatontown at Monmouth to start the season before going gate-to-wire in her next three starts, the Diana and Ballston Spa at Saratoga, and the Flower Bowl going this trip, last out.
 
Perhaps more importantly, she won those three starts while setting fast, moderate and dawdling fractions, which shows her versatility on the front end for trainer Alan Goldberg.
 
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Last years’ F&M Turf runner-up MARKETING MIX seems to have lost a step, in this her five-year-old season, but is still a dangerous foe on her best day. She started the season with a pair of victories in the Gamely and the Sunset going 1 ½ miles against the boys.
 
But in her two starts since she hasn’t looked like herself. She sat a perfect trip as the even money favorite in the Beverly D. at Arlington but failed to fire when trudging home fourth then couldn’t parlay another great trip in the Rodeo Drive into a victory last out when TIZ FLIRTATIOUS ran by her in the final yards Trainer Tom Proctor has to be hoping her affinity for the distance and course will help her find that extra punch she’ll need to win this.
 
Speaking of Tiz Flirtatious, her trainer Martin Jones has to be tickled to death with the season his filly is having and how she’s coming into this. Four for five overall this season, her lone blemish is a head defeat in the Gamely to Marketing Mix, a loss she avenged last out with her Rodeo Drive score.
 
Earlier this year, Tiz Flirtatious won both the Santa Ana and Mabee and overall has won four of five starts and finished second in here career over this course. In twelve career starts, she has never missed the board and has won or placed in all eight turf tries.
 
With The Fugue opting to take on the boys and the 1 ½ miles of the Turf, Beverly D winner DANK has to be viewed as Europe’s best hope to win this event for the sixth time. Racing on Lasix for the first time in the Beverly D, Dank raced in midpack most of the way, went wide on the final turn, then powered by the field like they were standing still to win by a going away 4 ¼ lengths.
 
This will be Dank’s first start since the Beverly D, run 10 weeks ago, but I doubt that’s a concern for her trainer Sir Michael Stoute, one of the best on the planet, especially when you consider Dank has already won off of a pair of seven month layoffs and a similar nine week layoff in her career.
  
The Rest
 
ALTERITE made her U.S. debut a winning one two starts back in the Garden City with an impressive final quarter mile to win by 1 ½ lengths before missing by just a neck in the QEII Cup at Keeneland last out. Earlier this year, Alterite faced Europe’s top sophomore fillies in such races as the French 1000 Guineas and French Oaks. This will be her third start in just seven weeks and her first against older horses.
 
EMOLLIENT came flying home through the stretch to take the Spinster over the Polytrack at Keeneland last out in her first start against her elders. It was her second G1 score at Keeneland this season having won the Ashland this past spring in gate-to-wire fashion. In her two turf starts, she won the American Oaks at this distance at Hollywood in July before finishing off the board when bottled up inside for most of the trip in the Garden City.
 
Another three-year-old trying older for the first time is KITTEN’S DUMPLINGS. She’s won four of her eight starts this season, including victories in the Edgewood and Regret at Churchill, the Lake George at Saratoga and in the QEII Cup last out. All of her wins have come by way of her patented, last-to-first sweep to the lead in the final stages, so she should appreciated the added distance in here as she’s never raced past 1 1/8 miles.
 
LADY OF SHAMROCK was beaten just 2 ½ lengths in this even last year when she scored in multiple graded stakes but is just one for six this season with her lone victory coming via DQ in the Santa Barbara this past winter. She’s finished behind Marketing Mix and Tiz Flirtatious numerous times this season but just can’t seem to make up the handful of lengths she needs to in order to beat the top tier.
 
QUSHCHI is just one for six since making her stateside debut earlier this year, and is just 4 for 27 overall. Save her maiden tally at seven furlongs, all of her other victories have come going 1 ½ miles and she failed to do any real damage when fourth in the Flower Bowl last out, her first start against G1 foes.
 
ROMANTICA ships in from Europe for the powerful Fabre stable sporting three wins and a second place finish from four starts at the distance. She’s already handled firm ground in Europe and tallied the first G1 of her career two starts back when making her first start off of a near three month layoff.  Her dam, Banks Hill, won the 2001 running of this then finished second in the race in 2002.
 
The Strategy
 
Laughing is loose on the lead. There is no denying that. The question is can she finish the job against the best field she’ll face all year? If you think she can, then she is your key horse. If you don’t, then you have to decide if you’re taking the Euros, the older Americans, or one of the young ladies representing the states.
 
The Bomb
 
Emollient figures to get lost in the wagering shuffle. I love the fact that she won her lone turf start in SoCal and think you’ll get 12-1 or more on her.

  
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