Welcome to Stabile’s 2013 Breeders’ Cup Breakdown, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 1st and Saturday, November 2nd at Santa Anita in Arcadia, CA. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY on VegasInsider.com.
Distance: 1 mile on turf Purse: $1,000,000 Age: 2-Year-Old colts and geldings Date: Friday, Nov. 1 Time: 5:25 p.m. EDT
Contested by both sexes in its inaugural running back in 2007 and featured the Breeders’ Cup debut of Gio Ponti, who had a nightmare trip. Trainer John Gosden and jockey Frankie Dettori teamed up to win consecutive runnings with Donativum and Pounced in 2008 and 2009.
Front Runners: All Cash, Bashart, Bobby’s Kitten, Mid-pack: Bon Accord, Giovanni Boldini, Home School, Shamshon, Wilshire Boulevard Closers: Aotearoa, Got Shades, Ontology, Outstrip, Poker Player
BOBBY’S KITTEN, named in honor of the late, great Bobby Frankel, comes into this event off of an extremely impressive performance in the Pilgrim at Belmont Park. After making the lead out of the gate, jockey Javier Castellano gathered his colt just off of the early leader, pounced on him turning for home then drew off to a powerful 6 ¼ victory.
Trained by one of Frankel’s prized pupils, Chad Brown, Bobby’s Kitten finished third in his debut when breaking from an outside post and coming from last before going gate-to-wire under similar circumstances next out.
The Todd Pletcher trained BASHART returns to the turf after making the lead in the stretch last out in the off-the-turf-to-Polytrack Bourbon at Keeneland last out before finishing second by a length after some early traffic trouble.
In his two prior starts, Bashart beat a talented bunch of maidens from just off the pace at Saratoga before going gate-to-wire in the With Anticipation at the Old Spa in his next start.
OUTSTRIP is one of several Euros with a chance in this event, a race they’ve won four times in the first six runnings. Outstrip has hit the board in all four of his starts, including two wins, and was second by a neck to the talented, multiple stakes winner Toomore in just the second start of his career.
Trained by Charlie Appleby for the powerful Godolphin Stable, Outstrip won a G2 two back before finishing third in his G1 debut last out. He’ll get a rider change to Mike Smith for this.
Aidan O’Brien will send out both GIOVANNI BOLDINI and WILSHIRE BOULEVARD in here. While Giovanni Boldini has won two of his three starts, both wins have come over a synthetic surface while his lone defeat came on the grass when he was third behind Toomore by 4 lengths.
Wilshire Boulevard is one of the more seasoned runners in here, having raced seven times already, with two wins under his belt. He won a G3 three starts back before just missing to repeat winner Astaire and finishing fourth in a G1 last out in France.
The maiden ALL CASH returns to turf off of a poor effort on dirt and a fourth place finish in the Bourbon after a troubled trip last out. In his lone turf route, All Cash was third to Bobby’s Kitten after finishing third in his debut in a Saratoga turf sprint.
AOTEAROA won the Zuma Beach over Juvenile entrant Diamond Bachelor in his turf debut last out when adding Lasix, which will not be allowed in this or any of the juvenile races this year. Earlier this year Aotearoa split decisions in his two synthetic track starts and has been supplemented to this by his owner Paul Viskovich, who used a recent Pick Six score of over $130K to pay the supplement fee.
BON ACCORD lit up the Calder tote board at 46-1 in his lone turf start two starts back in a sprint then finished third in the Bourbon, his first start going long, last out after racing wide. He should appreciate a return to what’s apparently his preferred surface and a positive rider change.
GOT SHADES flattened out a bit in the lane after making a strong run in the stretch to be third in the Zuma Beach in his first start WITHOUT Lasix. In his previous two starts, Got Shades won a pair of minor stakes at Louisiana Downs with a pair of solid late rallies.
One of the more seasoned runners in the field, having already raced seven times, HOME SCHOOL has failed to truly fire in his two U.S. starts in SoCal after winning just one of his five starts in Europe. A fourth place finish in the Zuma Beach followed up a third place finish behind Diamond Bachelor in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf two starts back.
Another maiden, ONTOLOGY, finished second in the Oak Tree Juvenile Turf two back before failing to run a step in the Front Runner, his initial effort over conventional dirt, last out.
POKER PLAYER won the off the turf Bourbon over the Keeneland Polytrack last out after breaking his maiden at Kentucky Downs two starts back. Poker Player could use a strong early pace for his late kick though he was able to overcome a dawdling one in his maiden score.
SHAMSHON failed to hit the board in his graded stakes debut in Europe last out after taking the first two starts of his career. Unlike the other foreign runners in here, Shamshon has yet to race around a turn or past six furlongs.
Without sounding too much like a homer, I truly believe the Americans have the Euros over a barrel in here this year. I think it’ll be more of an East Coast/West Coast thing than an international battle this year, with the New Yorkers having a decided edge.
Bon Accord should love the mile, return to turf and rider switch to Joel Rosario. And he’ll be 15-1 or higher!
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike daily with top picks from Belmont. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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