Welcome to Stabile’s 2013 Breeders’ Cup Breakdown, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 1st and Saturday, November 2nd at Santa Anita in Arcadia, CA. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY on VegasInsider.com.
Distance: 6 ½ furlongs on turf Purse: $1,000,000 Age: 3-Year-Olds and Up Date: Saturday, Nov. 2 Time: 5:05 p.m. EDT
Run down the hill going 6 ½ furlongs in its first two runnings before going to its intended distance in 2010. Back down the hill last year when Mizdirection became the first female to win the event.
Favorites: 2 for 5 (40%) Shortest: $6.60 (Regally Ready, 2011) Highest: $75.00 (Desert Code, 2008) U.S based: 5 Foreign based: 0 The champ is here? Yes, Mizdirection is looking to become the first two-time winner of the event.
Front Runners: Reneesgotzip, Spring to the Sky, Tightend Touchdown Mid-pack: Chips All In, Dimension, Handsome Mike, Mizdirection, Rock Me Baby, Unbridled’s Note Closers: Boat Trip, Capo Bastone, Caracortado, Havelock, Jeranimo
Defending champion MIZDIRECTION enters this event in pretty much the same fashion she did last season – off of a sub-par effort five months ago. Last season, just like this year, Mizdirection won her first three starts then was defeated. Last year her defeat came at Hollywood. This year it came at Belmont when she tried a mile in the Just a Game stakes that was run over a yielding course, the first time Mizdirection encountered a wet turf.
She’s back to doing what she does best now. She’s a perfect six for six over the course, with five of those wins coming down the quirky hill at this trip. She’s trained forwardly, save for a five week gap in her works back in August and September, for her return.
Another lady taking on the boys in here is RENEESGOTZIP, the third place finisher in this event last year when she was beaten less than two lengths. Oddly enough, Reneesgotzip hadn’t raced on the turf before this race last year and hasn’t since.
Reneesgotzip has raced just four times since last years’ Breeders’ Cup. She won a minor stakes over the Hollywood Cushion track before missing by a neck in the G1 La Brea to F&M Sprint contender Book Review. She didn’t make her 2013 debut until Del Mar, where she promptly won a pair of starts. This will be her first start in over ten weeks.
Like Mizdirection, CHIPS ALL IN has an affinity for the both this turf course and the distance down the hill. Overall, he’s won twice and placed in his other start going down the hill and owns a pair of wins going a mile here.
A pair of losses at Del Mar earlier this summer were sandwiched between a pair of G3 scores here in the San Simeon back in April and the Eddie D, which he won from just off the pace by a nose, last out.
Two time G1 stakes winner JERANIMO has won three of his nine starts at Santa Anita against better going longer but has never raced at this distance. In his last turf start, Jeranimo won the Eddie Read at Del Mar before trying the Pacific Classic on synthetic and Awesome Again on dirt to no avail.
BOAT TRIP broke his maiden in March 2012 down the hill and didn’t return to this surface until the Eddie D last out when he came flying to finish second by a nose. He’s won half of his eight turf starts overall.
Another giant closer, CAPO BASTONE, scored the biggest win of his career last out in the King’s Bishop on dirt at the Spa last out, his first G1 tally. Third in the Juvenile last year behind Shanghai Bobby, this will be Capo Bastone’s first start on turf.
CARACORTADO rallied from last in a field of four two starts back in the Daytona over this course…….back in January of 2012. 20 months later, Caracortado finished just ¾ of a length back in fourth in the Eddie D, a remarkable run considering that layoff.
DIMENSION ships in from Woodbine having chased reigning Horse of the Year Wise Dan in a course record renewal of the Woodbine Mile last out. Dimension went gate-to-wire in his lone turf sprint in North America, the Play King going seven panels two starts back
Way back in October 2011, HANDSOME MIKE broke his maiden over this course, at the distance in what would be his last start against anything but graded stakes company. He’s made 18 consecutive starts in those races and has run against some of the nation’s best runners on all types of surfaces at all different distances.
HAVELOCK took advantage of a fast early pace in the Woodford at Keeneland last out to win going away by 2 lengths. One of the more seasoned turf sprinters in here, Havelock took on Europe’s best to no avail this summer but has never raced over the course, a negative, or at this distance which he should appreciate.
ROCK ME BABY encountered some traffic in the very late stages of the Eddie D where he was beaten just 2 ½ lengths but has done the bulk of his best running against Cal-breds and lesser company.
SPRING TO THE SKY has had an eventful year, one that’s included a win at Saratoga following a race in which he was pulled up and vanned off, a place finish to the stalwart Ben’s Cat and a third place finish in the Woodford last out after he mixed it up on the lead early from his far outside post.
Another East Coast runner with a ton of early gas is TIGHTEND TOUCHDOWN. Claimed in January for $35K, he’s earned well over $250K since being taken and has been a part of the exacta in all seven starts for his new barn. He too was second to Ben’s Cat this season and also won a minor stakes at Penn National.
2012 Eddie D winner UNBRIDLED’S NOTE was second in this event last season, beaten just ½ a length by Mizdirection but has won just one time in his last six starts, a minor stakes going this trip back in February. Overall, he’s won two of four over this course at the distance and was most recently third in this years’ Eddie D.
Mizdirection won this last year off of a similar layoff, so why can’t she do the exact same thing this year? I don’t know that she can’t but I do feel that being a year older obviously doesn’t help and I do believe this field is a bit deeper than the one she faced last season. I’m going to save with her but also will use a few prices and hope I can beat her with one of them.
Handsome Mike is probably the most intriguing horse in all of the 14 races for me. He’s kept better company than anyone in the field but in every type of race EXCEPT turf sprints. His one trip down the hill led to his maiden victory in just the second start of his career. Maybe this is what he wants to do. I’m willing to find out at 25-1 or better.
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike daily with top picks from Aqueduct or Gulfstream Park. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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