Welcome to Stabile’s 2013 Breeders’ Cup Breakdown, an in depth look into each and every Breeders’ Cup race to be held Friday, November 1st and Saturday, November 2nd at Santa Anita in Arcadia, CA. VegasInsider.com handicapper Anthony “the Big A” Stabile will take a look at the contenders in each event, talk about how the race should set-up and provide some strategies on how to get the biggest bang for your buck when it comes to betting on the race. If you want to know what Anthony will be betting on both Breeders’ Cup days, make sure to check back on Friday and Saturday to purchase Stabile’s Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays of the Day, a look at how he’ll wager on each and every race, available EXCLUSIVELY on VegasInsider.com.
This was created a year after the Juvenile Turf after fillies were forced to face colts in 2007 so with only a handful of runnings under its belt there isn’t much. Flotilla became the first Foreign-based winner last season after the U.S. won the first four runnings.
Front Runners: Nesso, Ready to Act Mid-pack: Chriselliam, Granny Mc’s Kitten, Kitten Kaboodle, Street Sailing, Vorda Closers: Al Thakhira, Clenor, Colonel Joan, Dancing House, My Conquestadory, Sky Painter, Testa Rossi
After starting her career with three consecutive losses in Europe, CLENOR shipped to SoCal and has been perfect in her three subsequent starts for new trainer Doug O’Neill.
Oddly enough, Clenor stayed a bit closer to the pace in Europe as opposed to the last-to-first tactics that O’Neill has employed. After breaking her maiden despite breaking a tad slow, Clenor rattled off a pair of scores in the Oak Tree Juvenile Fillies and the Surfer Girl last out.
Like Clenor, TESTA ROSSI started her career overseas before being sent to Chad Brown this summer, apparently with this event in mind. Testa Rossi won three of her five starts in Europe, including two against the boys but never raced past seven furlongs or around a turn back home.
That all changed last out when Brown stretched her out in the Miss Grillo, her first start in two months. Testa Rossi handled it all with a plumb, dropping to the back of the pack immediately before unleashing an authoritative late kick under Jose Lezcano to hold on by a nose for her fourth consecutive tally.
Another Brown runner, KITTEN KABOODLE, broke her maiden last out in the Jessamine at Keeneland in her first start for her new trainer. Kitten Kaboodle finished second in her first two starts at Saratoga this summer before being turned over to Brown. She has seemed to have turned a corner as she had the looks of a hanger in those two maiden tries before showing a good turn of foot in that G3 score last out.
MY CONQUSTADORY is another coming into this off of a sharp Keeneland score but hers came in a G1 over the Polytrack when she overcame one of the worst trips since the Titanic’s to win the Alcibiades by a drawing away 1 ¾ lengths.
Trained by Mark Casse, My Conquestadory entered the Alcibiades with the reputation of being an exceptional filly as evident by her debut tally against the boys in the Summer at Woodbine, a G2 going a mile on the grass.
Trained by Philippe Sogorb, VORDA invades from Europe with an impressive four wins from five starts, including a G1 victory in her latest start. The lone blemish on her card came two back when she was defeated by the American colt No Nay Never, a stone cold runner for Wesley Ward.
Unlike most Euros, Vorda doesn’t sport a flashy pedigree but it sure does look like she can roll. Keep in mind though she’s never raced past six furlongs or around a turn as all five of her starts have come over straightaway courses.
That racing around turns thing is even more important when it comes to another Euro import, CHRISELLIAM. Trained by C.C. Hills, Chriselliam is a two time winner from five tries, including a G1 tally last out, but missed by just a neck against colts two starts back because she “didn’t handle turn,” according to her Daily Racing Form trip note. The fact that her rider, Richard Hughes, has had some success when flying into ride should help but keep in mind the turns at Santa Anita are much sharper than any in Europe.
AL THAKHIRA ships in from Europe having won both of her starts impressively, a maiden score in September followed by a G2 score last out just three weeks ago. Al Thakhira has yet to race past seven furlongs or around a turn.
The maiden COLONEL JOAN flew home in her turf debut last out after breaking slowly and racing five wide on the far turn. This will be heard third start off of a three month layoff.
DANCING HOUSE broke her maiden at first asking before finishing third in the Spinaway at Saratoga in the slop. In her first turf try last out, Dancing House raced wide in the six-path while kicking home strongly to be third.
GRANNY MC’S KITTEN broke her maiden two starts back in the P.G. Johnson at Saratoga off of a second place finish in her debut when she missed by just a nose when breaking from the outside post. In the Miss Grillo last out, she didn’t save an inch of ground and wound up fourth as the 9-5 favorite.
After being claimed out of her debut win at Calder, NESSO was shipped to SoCal and switched to turf. Nesso set fast early fractions in that first turf start, her first in over two months, before Clenor ran her down then made the lead a bit later on last out in the Surfer Girl before getting gunned down by Clenor again.
READY TO ACT broke her maiden professionally in her debut, coming from off the pace in a Saratoga sprint back in late July. Last out as the 8-5 favorite, Ready to Act appeared home free in Woodbine’s Natalma going a mile before inexplicably dumping her rider in full flight.
SKY PAINTER is another who looked broke her maiden impressively in a Spa turf sprint, overcoming a bad break to win going away. Last out, she seemingly flew home in the Miss Grillo to finish second by just a nose to Testa Rossi after being fanned seven wide in the stretch.
After racing on the synthetic surface at Presque Isle Downs in the first three starts of her career, STREET SAILING absolutely crushed a Keeneland turf allowance field by 6 ¼ lengths from just off the pace. She tackled colts in two of her first three starts and is in fact undefeated against fillies in two starts.
This is easily one of the more interesting and contentious races of the weekend. We once again have the Americans vs. the Euros and the East Coast against the West Coast. Whatever you do, command value for your money because almost everyone in here has a chance to grab the big prize. In these big juvenile fields going two turns I normally like to stay with inside numbers just because that run to the first turn isn’t very long.
Granny Mc’s Kitten has never been higher than 5-2 on the board in each of her first three starts. I’m willing to chalk up her flop in the Miss Grillo last out to the wide trip and give her a look at 15-1 in here.
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past success in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike each day with daily picks from Belmont and Churchill Downs or you can get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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