At the Gate - Sunday
November 3, 2013
By Mike Dempsey
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The Breeders' Cup is in the books and it was quite a ride on Saturday. We had seven recommended exactas on the 12-race card, with payoffs of $53.50, $19.00, $23.30, $58.00, $66.20, $107.80, and $33.60.
If you boxed my top three contenders in the Turf that would have made it eight, the $2 exacta paying $73.40.
But of course, I am going to complain about the races we missed, because with a little luck it could have been a really good day.
My top pick in the Juvenile Fillies was Secret Compass, and she was laying in third along the inside on the turn when she broke down.
The only race I was really wrong on was the Sprint, as I just did not like Secret Circle or his price at all.
My top pick in the Classic was Palace Malice, who was off awkwardly and did not seem to like the kickback and he backed up after racing wide much of the trip to finish sixth.
However, my second choice Declaration of War was running a bang-up race and was right in the mix in deep stretch. My fourth choice Will Take Charge came running, and Mucho Macho Man was battling on up front. He had enough to hold on by a nose over Will Take Charge, and it was a head back to Declaration of War.
The toughest beat for me on the day was in the early Pick 5. With a big carryover there was over $5 million in the pool. My top pick won the first three legs and I was already looking forward to seeing the will-pays after the fourth race, as I was alive to four runners in the fourth race and felt pretty confident.
Three of them were right in the mix on the far turn, but my top pick Secret Compass broke down and my third choice She's a Tiger got to the wire first but was disqualified and placed second behind 32-1 longshot Ria Antonia. That knocked me out of the Pick 5.
My second choice Dank beat my top pick Romantica in the fifth race. Without the disqualification, I hit the Pick 5. That was tough to swallow.
However, all was forgotten after nailing the exactas in the next four races. Well, not forgotten totally, I have a feeling I may have a few sleepless nights thinking about that Pick 5.
The Big A offers up a good card today featuring a pair of graded races.
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Here is today's opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
5 Hey Kiddo 10-1
2 Mohammad 3-1
4 Sacred Moon 4-1
7 Laura Go Lightly 5-2
Analysis: Hey Kiddo put in a good effort in her debut, coming up the inside with a late rally to finish in the runner up spot at 9-1 in a field of seven. She did not have much of a chance to catch the winner heading for home over a racing strip that was playing to speed that day. She figures to move forward with a race under her belt for the Donk barn that does not win first out that often. The filly has a couple of sibs that are winners, top earner stakes winner Jane N Elwood ($273,250).
Mamdooha was sent off as the 2-1 favorite in her debut making a good late rally to finish in the runner up spot at Monmouth Park behind a gate to wire winner. The filly came back with a bullet drill for the McLaughlin barn that is 27% winners (with a +ROI) with second out maidens.
WIN: #5 to win at 5-1 or better.
EX: 2,4 / 2,4,5,7
TRI: 2,4 / 2,4,5,7 / 2,4,5,6,7
Today's Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 The Nashua G2 (3:43 ET)
12 Cairo Prince 4-1
1 Louisiana Flyboy 6-1
11 Manhattan Johnnie 7-2
2 Intense Holiday 6-1
Analysis: Cairo Prince was a good looking maiden winner in his debut, tracking the early pace and taking over heading for home to win by 2 3/4 lengths in good time. The McLaughlin barn usually moves them forward with a race under their belt and is 28% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route. The colt draws the far outside post but keep in mind this is a one-turn race.
Louisiana Flyboy made his debut against state breds in Louisiana and overcame a tough start to rally from more than a dozen lengths back to pick up his diploma. The colt now makes his first start for the Chad Brown barn that is 29% winners (with a +ROI) with newcomers to the barn. This is another guy that should like the added ground. He is by FuPeg out of a More Than Ready mare that has dropped two other winners including a stakes winner Louisiana Glory ($178,592).
WIN: #12 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 1,12 / 1,2,11,12
TRI: 1,12 / 1,2,11,12 / 1,2,3,11,12
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #5 Hey Kiddo 10-1
R2: #7 Smokin Candy 12-1
R4: #7 This Guy Is Blue 12-1
R5: #4 Gracer 8-1
R6: #1 Mister Dooley 8-1
R7: #7 Lord of Love 12-1
Good luck today!
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
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