At the Gate - Thursday
November 14, 2013
By Mike Dempsey
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The Pick 6 at Belmont Park went unsolved on Wednesday, leading to a carryover for Thursday of $72,676.
Quite a few tickets went down when 4-1 Merry Meadow was disqualified in the eighth race for interference, putting My Place in the winner’s circle at $28.20.
There were five horses alive in the finale for the payoff, but one of them was not the betting favorite The Blonde Peque, who got the job done returning $8.60.
While the Pick 6 will garner plenty of attention on Thursday, it is the early Pick 5 I have become obsessed with. With a low takeout of 15% and a .50 minimum, it has fast become my favorite wager.
Wednesday was a good example. My second choice won each of the first four races, paying $5.00, $6.90, $8.00, and $3.20, all horses that figured.
I was pleasantly surprised by the payoff when my top pick Secretive ($10.20) completed the wager. Five horses, all at 4-1 or lower and the Pick 5 paid $527.50 for a .50-cent ticket.
Thursday’s Pick 5 is a tough one that includes three maiden races. However, with a lower increment (.50 cents versus $2) and one less race to solve, not to mention the lower takeout, I am going to be looking to take down the Pick 5 again.
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Here is today’s opening from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:
AQU Race 1 Md Sp Wt (12:20 ET)
5 Aliana 7-5
9 Secret 8-1
4 Marywiththeblueeyes 6-1
2 Katie's Garden 3-1
Analysis: Aliana makes her third career start here, finishing second in both starts, last out battling for the early lead and finishing gamely to miss by just 3/4 of a length for the top spot. In her debut she ran a good second at Churchill Downs behind repeat winner Brilliant Rescue, who beat Alw-1 foes in her next outing on Nov. 3 at Churchill Downs. The Mott filly popped a bullet work on Nov. 6.
Secret makes her debut for the Iwinski barn that is 10% winners (with a +ROI) with first timers. The filly is by Street Cry (11% winners with debut runners) out of a stakes placed Mt. Livermore mare that has dropped five winners including four stakes winners, top earner Inspired ($439,785).
WIN: #5 to win at 8-5 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 2,4,5,9
TRI: 5,9 / 2,4,5,9 / 2,3,4,5,9
Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:
AQU Race 8 OClm $25,000N1X (3:43 ET)
5 Freeride 3-1
4 Sliver and Onions 2-1
1 Go Canes Go 5-1
6 Third Knight 8-1
Analysis: Freeride stretches out to a mile for his second start off a seven-month layoff for the Tony D. barn. The colt stalked the early pace, was in behind foes, was fanned out five wide for the stretch drive and finished up well for the runner up spot. The colt broke his maiden two back at Philly in the slop with two he beat that day coming back to graduate in their next starts. The colt has plenty of pedigree to handle the extra ground here and the barn is 23% winners (with a +ROI) with runners making their second start off a +180 day layoff.
Sliver and Onions tracked the early pace from the outside, came with a four wide bid and flattened out in the stretch in a third place finish last out at this level in his first go off a 2 1/2 month break. He matched his career top speed fig he earned in his maiden win at the Spa going nine furlongs. It looks as if this gelding should get a good tracking trip behind what is going to be a solid early pace.
WIN: #5 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 4,5 / 1,4,5,6
TRI: 4,5 / 1,4,5,6 / 1,4,5,6,7
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #9 Secret 8-1
R2: #13 Recovered 8-1
R3: #8 Itsagodtendollars 8-1
R5: #3 Meeker 8-1
R6: #4 Tiz Teresa 8-1
R8: #6 Third Knight 8-1
Good luck today!
HORSE RACING EXPERT
Mike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders’ Cup.
Last Year Mike had a solid Triple Crown, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick.
Mike has also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively.
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Jerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins.
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