We have a $24,464 Pick 6 carryover going into Friday’s card at Aqueduct, thanks mainly to one of the biggest upsets of the year.
The sixth race was a bottom level maiden claimer that drew a slow field of 10 juvenile fillies entered for a $12,500 tag. My top pick was L’S Escalator, who was bet down from her 8-1 morning line to 9-2 and she was able to jump out to the early lead.
She opened up a four-length lead and heading for home was still about three lengths clear, and it looked as if she would be able to take the field gate to wire.
However, inside the final furlong it started to look like she was running in quicksand and she faded to finish seventh.
Coming from the outside was Front Cover Dream under Men Chen, a jockey who had not seen the inside of a winner’s circle since 2009, winning a race at Penn National.
The filly did not seem as if she was going to see the winner’s circle for a while either, as she was beaten a combined 78 lengths and in her three starts, sent off at odds of 58-1, 81-1 and 91-1.
She was sent off at exactly 99-1 yesterday in her fourth career outing and came running toward the outside to win the staggerfest, returning a cool $200.00 to win, $79.00 to place and $33.00 to show. The 10-1 longshot Charming Eyes ran second, the $2 exacta paying $3,489.00.
Yeah, I did not have it either.
I was thinking it was the biggest upset we have seen in New York, but actually, we had one larger. Back in January Take the El Train took the field gate to wire and paid $259.50 in a $35,000 maiden claimer. The $2 exacta with 4-1 Retired paid $991.00.
Analysis: Derek's Girl was a good-looking maiden winner in her debut and then came back three months later to finish third in the Tempted (G3). The winner of the race was Stopshoppingmaria came back to win the Demoiselle (in her next outing on Nov. 30. She cuts back to a sprint and drops into a better spot here as she makes her first start for the Balsamo barn that takes over from Jacobson, who has two others in here.
Forbidden Talent set the early fractions and weakened to finish fourth last out at this level on the main track. The winner Alpaca Fina returned to beat Alw-1 foes in her next outing here on Dec. 5. She is quick enough to get the early lead and her best shot is if she shakes loose early.
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 2,3 / 2,3,4
TRI: no play
Analysis: Nonnie Connie has come up short at this condition 10 times and now stretches back out to a mile here for her first trip on the inner track. Last out tracked the early pace and then finished evenly as the beaten favorite. The runner up Dee Dee's Comet came back to win at this level on Dec. 7. She was third in her two previous starts at a one turn mile and the Galluscio barn is 18% winners (with a +ROI) moving runners from sprint to route. She catches a weak group here.
Alwaysinmycircle dueled for the early lead and could not hold off the winner late in a runner up finish at this level here on the main track in her first start off a 2 1/2 month break. The filly owns the edge in early and mid pace numbers and does not need to move forward much off her last outing to be in the mix against this group.
WIN: #9 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 5,9 / 3,5,9,10
TRI: 5,9 / 3,5,9,10 / 3,4,5,9,10
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.
R1: #2 Forbidden Talent 10-1
R2: #2 Talent N Passion 8-1
R4: #9 My Pisano 12-1
R5: #2 Herbal Prospector 8-1
R6: #2 Candy At My Place 10-1
R7: #9 Castles Burning 12-1
R9: #9 Estrange 8-1
Mike DempseyMike covers the New York racing circuit (Aqueduct, Belmont Park, and Saratoga) year round as well as Keeneland, Churchill Downs, the Triple Crown, and the Breeders' Cup. The 2015 Triple Crown saw Mike correctly predict American Pharoah to win both the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes. Mike nailed the Exacta and Trifecta in the Belmont Stakes. Mike had a solid 2014 Triple Crown race season, correctly picking the winning horse in 2 of 3 races. He selected I'll Have another to win The Preakness, and nailed Union Rags to win the Belmont Stakes as his top pick. Mike also had past succes in the Kentucky Derby, winning with Animal Kingdom in 2011 and rode his top picks, Super Saver and Street Sense, to the finish line in 2010 and 2007 respectively. No handicapper in the industry works harder to bring you analysis that produces profits at the track! Mike's Reports include his selections, detailed analysis, a fair odds line, and wagering recommendations for the entire card. Join Mike each day with daily picks from Belmont and Churchill Downs or capture the 2nd jewel in the Triple Crown with Mike's Preakness Stakes package. You can also get his Weekend Best Plays Report in his Multi-Track package or sit at the track with him for 30 Days with his Monthly Horse Package!
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Jerry SessaJerry "Shots" Sessa has been involved in horse racing for over 30 years. He now brings his meticulous handicapping style to VegasInsider.com. When Jerry posts picks you are getting his best bets...when you win, he wins. Jerry opened the 2016 Triple Crown season by hitting his Derby Day best bet, Nyquist. He also nailed the Derby exacta for a $30.60 payout. On 4/16/16 at Keeneland, Jerry hit an $819 exacta that led to a $38k Trifecta & a $300k Super.
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