| 134th Running of the Roses |
| Post/Horse |
Trainer - Jockey |
Bottom Line |
1 - Cool Coal Man
 |
Nick Zito (2-19) Julien Leparoux (0-1) |
This is a strange year because there seems to be half a dozen horses that look the same and he's one of them. I'm assuming the Blue Grass flop was due to Polytrack though he did have seven weeks between starts. He'll likely take some Zito money as lots of people always try to beat the chalk so that may put his price a tad lower than it should be. I'm going to use him on the bottom of my trifectas and superfectas and, depending on how deep I go in other races, I may use him on a saver Pick3 or Pick 4 ticket as well. |
2 - Tale of Ekati
 |
Barclay Tagg (1-3)
Eibar Coa (0-1) |
I've been a fan of this horse since day one. I liked the Wood Memorial more than most others did and think it was a solid prep. Has taken a similar path to the one that Funny Cide took and Tagg is no stranger to the Churchill winners circle on Derby Day. He's my third choice. I'll be using him underneath in all my exotics, on top in a few savers and in some Pick 3 and Pick 4 wagers. |
3 - Anak Nakal
 |
Nick Zito (2-19)
Rafael Bejarano (0-3) |
I've liked this horse from the beginning of the season but he just hasn't fired this year. Speed figures need to improve big time for him to have a chance at beating half the field in here. Still, Zito is a master at getting a horse ready for the Derby, he's done his best work over the course and he'll benefit from what should be a solid early pace. I'm using him underneath in all my exotics and hoping for the best. |
4 - Court Vision
 |
Bill Mott (0-4)
Garrett Gomez (0-4) |
Though his times are on the slow side, he seems to get better and better with each start and appears to want the added distance of the Derby. If anyone can get a horse ready off just two preps, its Mott so that isn't bothering me as much as it normally would. Last year, he seemed to peak in the third start of his form cycle and the Derby will be the third start of this form cycle. He hasn't reached his zenith yet while I think some of the others may have. Plus, he'll be moving forwards when the others start backing up. With all that said, Court Vision is the pick to win Kentucky Derby 134. I'm playing him to win, using him on top of all my exotic plays and on all my Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets. |
5 - Eight Belles
 |
Larry Jones (0-1)
Gabriel Saez (Debut) |
Sure, fillies have won this but many great ones have tried and failed miserably since Winning Colors was the last to win the roses 20 years ago. I know many feel this isn't the greatest crop in the world, but the same could be said about the fillies and I'll take a good colt over a good filly any day…..on the racetrack that is. She'll take plenty of action. Let her beat you. |
6 - Z Fortune
 |
Steve Asmussen (0-7)
Robby Albarado (0-9) |
I'm not sure how he'll react to that huge effort last out after throwing in an absolute clunker two starts back. Too many in here like him and how deep can you go? I'm reluctantly going to throw him out. |
7 - Big Truck
 |
Barclay Tagg (1-3)
Javier Castellano (0-2) |
Save the T.B. Derby, his only other wins have come in maiden and allowance contests against New York breds. I'm not quite sure how he'll handle the distance though his running style and apparent desire to go further may overcome his pedigree. Don't let the Blue Grass scare you off if you like him, like most of those raced poorly, he probably didn't care for the Polytrack at Keeneland. He'll be a big, big price so I'm using him on the bottom of trifectas and superfectas. |
8 - Visionaire
 |
Michael Matz (1-1)
Jose Lezcano (0-1) |
I know Matz won this with Barbaro, but this horse couldn't set Barbaro's feed tub. A lot of people are using this guy as a live longshot, but he's not for me. I'm passing. |
9 - Pyro
 |
Steve Asmussen (0-7)
Shaun Bridgmohan (0-2) |
From hero to zero in a month, this guy was going to be vying for favoritism and now he's the forgotten soul. I'll be honest, I do not like what's been going on with him lately. On the other hand, what if it WAS the Polytrack last out and all is well? They'll be plenty of people kicking themselves if that's the case. I'm going to use him on the bottom of my trifectas and superfectas and save with him in some Pick 3's and Pick 4's. |
10 - Colonel John
 |
Eoin Harty (Debut)
Corey Nakatani (0-13) |
If this colt had a solid dirt start under his belt he'd probably be the pick. And while he's trained very well since arriving in Kentucky, is ten days really enough to acclimate to the surface? I don't know. What I do know is this guy is easily the best California has to offer and is probably one of the best in this crop. He'll get a hot early pace to close into and is one of only a few I can actually see winning this thing. The second pick, I'll use him in all my exotic wagers (on top in some) and on all my Pick 3 and Pick 4 tickets. |
11 - Z Humor
 |
Bill Mott (0-4)
Rene Douglas (0-1) |
While the good and the bad sort of cancel each other out, there's no doubt he'll be a huge price and that always helps when betting, especially in a race like this. I'm going to use him on the bottom of my trifectas and superfectas. |
12 - Smooth Air
 |
Bennie Stutts (Debut)
Manoel Cruz (Debut) |
I didn't think this horse had any chance to begin with but then he missed time making him completely impossible. Not using him for a penny. |
13 - Bob Black Jack
 |
James Kasparoff (Debut)
Richie Migliore (0-5) |
He's adding blinkers for this which leads me to believe he'll be nothing more than cheap, early speed. Completely toss him out. |
14 - Monba
 |
Todd Pletcher (0-19)
Ramon Dominguez (0-4) |
He's the type of horse that needs things to go perfectly, ad evident by the trips he had when he's won previously in his career. What are the odds of him working out a trip like that in the Derby? Pretty high, if you ask me. I'm tossing him out. |
15 - Adriano
 |
Graham Motion (0-1)
Edgar Prado (1-8) |
I have mixed emotions about him because I think he may be a turf/synthetic horse. He really didn't beat much in the Lane's End but he did do it impressively. A lot of folks are going to put too much into the fact that Prado chose him over the other two and I think he'll take more money than he should. Still, I'm going to use him in the bottom slots in trifectas and superfectas. |
16 - Denis of Cork
 |
David Carroll (Debut)
Calvin Borel (1-5) |
Not sure why connections were so anxious to get into the Derby, but they got their wish. Borel's presence will probably lower his price. I thought he had some talent earlier this season but that Illinois Derby try was terrible. No way can I back him off that lackluster effort. Throw him out. |
17 - Cowboy Cal
 |
Todd Pletcher (0-19)
John Velazquez (0-9) |
Besides his pedigree and connections (which will probably hurt his price), there really isn't anything to like about him. I think he has distance limitations and will be nothing more than an early pace factor. Toss him. |
18 - Recapturetheglory
 |
Louie Roussel (0-2)
Eddie Baird (Debut) |
This horse ran a career best effort last out which leads me to believe he may bounce. And let's not forget that he had things his own way last out as well. He'll put in his usual honest effort, but I don't think its good enough in here. I'm passing. |
19 - Gayego
 |
Paulo Lobo (Debut)
Mike Smith (1-14) |
Many feel he gives hope to the horses that have never raced on dirt because he won on dirt last out. That's easily one of the most absurd things I've ever heard. Each horse will react differently - he just so happened to like it. I don't think it'll matter. He beat nothing last out and needed a perfect trip to do so. Also, he'll be a shorter price than he should be off that effort. I'm throwing him out. |
20 - Big Brown
 |
Rick Dutrow Jr. (Debut)
Kent Desormeaux (2-14) |
After winning the Florida Derby by 5 lengths in near course record time, professional and amateur handicappers alike began christening him as winner of Derby 134. I, however, have fought the urge and see him for what he is - a horse that's taken advantage of circumstance, especially over that speed bias course last out, and a one trick pony who does his best work on the front end. He'll have plenty of company come Saturday and don't forget about his foot ailments. I'm throwing him out of everything. |
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