2nd Round Betting Angles
May 4, 2014
By Marc Lawrence
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With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.
Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action, along with a few tempting team trends.
All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.
Thou Shall Not Lay Points Into A No. 1 Seed
One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: do not lay points against No.1 seeds.
That’s because inferior teams are just 18-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996.
Worse, if the inferior teams are laying 4.5 or fewer points they are just 9-21 ATS, including 3-19 ATS when they own a win percentage of .575 or more.
Portland – you’ve been warned.
Tripped Out Favorites
Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round Two.
That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-14 ATS in these games. Last year saw Oklahoma City laying 4.5 points to Memphis in this non-desirous role. The Grizzlies won the game, 88-84.
Worse, if the tripped-out chalk dropped their last game straight up as a favorite these teams generally fall off the map - and out of the playoffs - going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.
You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.
Round Two dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58.6% ATS proposition, going 34-24 ATS.
Best of all, send them home in this role and they respond with aplomb, going 5-1 SU and ATS.
Running On Empty
Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up with a frenzy the next game in this round.
That’s evident by a sparkling 22-9-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.
The Pacers were put to the test last season and they ignited as 5.5-point favorites in a 98-79 annihilation of Atlanta.
FYI: Put these same favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 16-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.
Perfect 2nd Round Playoff Teams Trends
Brooklyn: Nets 5-0 ATS away vs. opponent off win of 7 or more points
Indiana: Pacers 0-4 ATS vs. opponent off SS SU underdog wins
Los Angeles: Clippers 0-5 SUATS off a win
Miami: Heat 7-0 ATS off a DD loss
Oklahoma City: Thunder 0-6 SUATS away off win of 9 more points
Portland: Trail Blazers 4-0 SUATS off a loss of 6 or more points
San Antonio: Spurs 0-4 SUATS as a favorite off a SU underdog win
Washington: Wizards 0-4 ATS as dogs of less than 12 points
There you have it. Rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs. Use your head and play accordingly.
7-1 L8, 14-4 L18, 59% +3,169 TY
6-1 L7 Days, +2,372 This Season
16-7 Run, 30-11 L41 Guarantees
6-1 L7 Picks, +2,188 This Year
5-2 L7, 12-5 L17 NBA Selections
15-5 L20 Picks, 13-5 L18 G-Plays
13-5 Playoff Record, 16-6 L22
9-3 Last 12 Guaranteed Plays
4-0 L4 Picks, 7-2 L9 G-Plays
5-2 Last 7 Playoff Selections
2-0 Friday, +2,342 NBA Totals TY
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