Tuesday's Best Bet
December 5, 2017
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Tuesday NBA Best Bet
Utah Jazz vs OKC Thunder
It's a light NBA board for Tuesday's action as there are only three games on the schedule and all three home teams laying multiple possessions on the spread. If the point spreads oddsmakers have posted for these three games are accurate, chances are we won't see that close of a game tonight, although judging from early action today there are plenty of bettors that think otherwise and that's in the Utah/OKC tilt.
BetDSI.eu Odds: OKC (-7); Total set at 197
If you look at VegasInsider.com's betting percentage numbers for this game, this is the only one of the three tonight where the underdog is getting the majority of the action. As of this writing, those numbers sit at 66% on the ML for Utah, while just under 60% are taking the points with the Jazz.
Given Utah just blew the doors off Washington last night (116-69) and have won six straight games (SU and ATS), it's easy to see why Utah is getting plenty of love tonight. Throw in an OKC team that has vastly underperformed relative to their expectations once Carmelo Anthony and Paul George came to town this summer, and you've basically got the perfect storm of a situation for Utah to become a “public underdog”.
We are more than a quarter into the NBA season and the fact that OKC still has a sub-500 record (10-12 SU) has to be one of the biggest surprises of this young season still. We've seen teams that acquire a new “Big Three” need some time to fully reach their potential, but in all those previous cases we saw those squads figure it out by this point of the year. OKC hasn't reached that point yet as it appears as though Westbrook, George, and Anthony are all too similar in regards to skill sets and desire to want to be the top guy. Offensively this team is nowhere near where they want to be at the moment, but thankfully they've got a Top 5 defense that can at least give them a shot every night out there.
The Thunder do enter tonight having won two in a row SU (0-2 ATS) as maybe things are starting to come around. That's tough to suggest given they are still just 3-3 SU during their last six games and 5-5 SU through their past 10 contests, but this team simply has too much talent to toil around the .500 mark for long. With rest and revenge angles in their favor this evening (Utah beat OKC 96-87 in previous meeting this year), and the Jazz being a public underdog with the ATS run they are on, this might be the perfect spot to actually back the Thunder ATS.
I know OKC has been a money-burner all year with their 8-14 ATS mark overall, but the Jazz are a much different team away from home (2-7 SU on the road), as they are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight as visitors. Utah is also 2-9-1 ATS as a team in their last 12 trips to OKC, and this one-day trip to Oklahoma City sandwiched between two home games against top-tier competition in Washington and Houston isn't an ideal spot either. Washington may not have looked like a top-tier opponent last night and Utah did get a chance to rest most of their starters late in that game, but the home team owns this rivalry when these two play and the Thunder are in need of their own dominant performance to potentially kick-start a nice run of very winnable games basically the rest of the month.
Russell Westbrook isn't going to be held to just 6 points like he was in the first meeting against the Jazz this year, and of OKC's eight ATS victories this year, six of them have been when they were at home. The last of those ATS victories came six games ago when they were able to knock off a hot Golden State team 108-91, and with the Jazz being similarly as hot, I can see the Thunder putting up a similar final score line on them tonight.
OKC is 16-6 ATS in their last 22 at home against a team with a losing record on the road, and with all the support going the other way, I'm going to swallow the chalk tonight and look for OKC's new faces to figure it out for 48 minutes against a potentially tired Utah side.
Odds per - BetDSI.eu
Best Bet: OKC -7
10-4 L4 Days, 14-4 Totals, +1,367 TY
9-3 L12 G-Plays, 11-5 L16 Picks
8-1 L9, 12-3 L15 Guarantees
24-9 L33 Guaranteed Plays
23-12 L35, +1,368 This Year
3-0 L3 Picks, 6-3 L9 G-Plays
5-2 L7 Picks, 59% +880 TY
6-1 L7 G-Plays, 7-3 L10 Picks
4-1 L5 Picks, 7-2 This Month
18-9 L27 Picks, 5-2 L7 Totals
26-16 L42 Picks, +2,074 TY
19-9 Pick Run, 8-4 L12 Totals
5-2 L7 Picks, 6-2 L8 Totals
17-8 Last 25 NBA Selections
5-2 Last 7 NBA Guarantees
10-4 L14 Guaranteed Plays
5-2 L7, 8-3 L11 Selections
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