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AFC Divisional Notes

VegasInsider Staff
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NFC Divisional Notes

Saturday, Jan. 13, 2018

Tennessee at New England (CBS, 8:15 p.m. ET)

Line Movement: [...] opened New England as a 13 ½-point home favorite while the Las Vegas Westgate SuperBook sent the defending champions out as -14. The global shop dropped their number to -13 while the SuperBook dipped to -13 ½. The total opened 47 on Sunday afternoon and it hasn’t seen an upward or downward adjustment.

Tennessee Road Record: 4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS
New England Home Record: 6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS

Head-to-Head: The Patriots have won six straight encounters against the Titans dating back to 2003 while going 5-1 against the spread. The last meeting took place in December of 2015 from Foxboro and New England captured a 33-16 win over Tennessee as a 14-point home favorite. The one cover during this stretch by the Titans occurred in the 2004 postseason when New England won 17-14 but failed to cash as a six-point home favorite. Coincidentally, that game was also played in the Divisional Playoff round.

Playoff Notes: Bill Belichick has gone 25-9 in the playoffs with the Patriots. At home, the team has gone 17-3 SU and 11-5-1 ATS during this span. In the last 10 postseason games played at Foxboro, the Patriots are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS with six of the victories coming by double digits. Last Saturday’s playoff win over Kansas City was the first postseason victory for Tennessee since 2004. The Titans have gone 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four playoff games as visitors while the ‘under’ has gone 4-0.

Total Notes: Tennessee has seen the ‘over’ go 9-8 this season but it produced a 5-4 record to the ‘under’ on the road. New England started out the season with four straight ‘over’ winners but closed with a 9-3 ‘under’ run. At Foxboro, the Patriots saw the ‘under’ go 5-3 and that includes a run of five consecutive tickets to the low side entering the playoffs despite the offense averaging 29.4 points per game at Foxboro this season. The ‘over’ has gone 4-2 in the last six meetings between the Titans and Patriots.

Sunday, Jan. 14, 2018

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh (CBS, 1:05 p.m. ET)

Line Movement:  The Steelers opened as 7 ½-point home favorites over the Jaguars at a few global betting shops and at the SuperBook. Depending where you play, you can still get +7 ½ with Jacksonville while a few other outfits have dropped Pittsburgh to 7 (-120). The ‘over/under’ has been holding steady at 41.

Jacksonville Road Record: 4-4 SU, 4-4 ATS
Pittsburgh Home Record: 6-2 SU, 3-5 ATS

Head-to-Head: These teams played at Heinz Field in Week 5 and the Jaguars stunned the Steelers 30-9 as 7 ½-point road underdogs. Jacksonville led 7-6 but they blew the game open with a pair of defensive touchdowns in the third quarter and they added a 90-yard touchdown run in the final two minutes. The Steelers outgained the Jaguars but did themselves in with five turnovers, all of them interceptions from quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. Prior to that setback, Pittsburgh had won three in a row over Jacksonville. Including the earlier meeting this season, the Jaguars have gone 4-1 both SU and ATS in their last five visits to Western Pennsylvania.

Playoff Notes: These teams met in the 2009 playoffs and Jacksonville posted a 31-29 road win over Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round but it failed to cover as a three-point road favorite. Sunday’s 10-3 home playoff win over Buffalo was the first postseason victory for the Jaguars since the aforementioned win over the Steelers. Pittsburgh has gone 13-7 in the playoffs with Big Ben at QB and that includes a 6-3 record at home. He’s gone 5-1 both SU and ATS in his last six playoff games at home and the average margin of victory came by 10 points per game.

Total Notes: Jacksonville has seen the ‘under’ go 9-8 this season, which includes a 5-3 mark on the road. The Jaguars posted the second-best scoring defense (15.4 PPG) on the road this season. The Steelers were a great ‘under’ bet this season, going 10-5-1. However, Pittsburgh was 5-3 to the ‘over’ at home and the Steelers defense (23.4 PPG) was surprisingly worse at home than on the road (15.1 PPG) this season. Going back to 2002, the last 10 meetings between the pair have watched the totals break even at 5-5 but the ‘under’ has connected in the last three matchups. With Big Ben as QB, the Steelers have seen the ‘over’ go 8-1 in home playoff games the team averaged 26.2 PPG in those games.

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