MLB Daily Free Picks, Predictions, Odds
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MLB Expert Picks for Tuesday, May 7
Our VI baseball betting experts have compiled their MLB picks for Tuesday, May 7 and they're focusing on the matchups below:
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Philadelphia Phillies (6:40 p.m. ET)
- Houston Astros vs. New York Yankees (7:05 p.m. ET)
Blue Jays vs Phillies Free Picks
Toronto's lineup simply hasn't developed the way most expected, and the Blue Jays have been a great disappointment so far in 2024 at 16-19, including 8-12 in road games. The Blue Jays have averaged only 3.8 runs per nine vs. left-handers this season, batting .231, with only three wins vs. left-handed starters on the season.
Christopher Sanchez delivered a 3.44 ERA in over 99 innings last season for the Phillies mostly as a starter and he has provided a similar pace this season with a 3.68 ERA with a 2.94 FIP. Sanchez has good numbers even with an inflated .348 BABIP and just a 64 percent strand rate as he is likely to see his numbers improve even further over time.
Sanchez has a 2.12 ERA at home this season and while the Philadelphia bullpen has marginal season numbers, in the past 10 games Philadelphia relievers own a 1.61 ERA. In contrast Toronto's relief pitching has been in a rough patch with a 5.86 ERA in the past 10 games.
The Jays have had short starting efforts in the past two games and Jose Berrios has been a significantly worse road pitcher in his career. Berrios has been a bright spot for Toronto in 2024 with a 1.44 ERA but his FIP is 4.01 and he is on pace for a career worst K/9.
In contrast to Sanchez, Berrios has a .229 BABIP so far this season and a 97 percent strand rate, with both figures huge departures from the career averages for Berrios.
Toronto's lineup has scored three or fewer runs in seven of the past 10 games while the Phillies have been on a roll at the plate, scoring five or more runs in eight of the past 10 games. In that span Philadelphia has averaged 7.9 runs per nine vs. right-handed pitching.
Astros vs Yankees Free Picks
The Yankees are off to an excellent start. The Astros are not. But after opening 7-19, Houston is slowly showing signs of getting turned around winning five of their last eight games.
Because of their slow start, I can get the Astros with Justin Verlander on the mound as an underdog today. I'll take that.
Verlander still is an elite pitcher. He's made three starts since returning from a shoulder injury and is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA. He has a rested Josh Hader to close.
The Yankees are pitching Luis Gil. I like him, but he's not a big inning guy. He's coming off a career-high 6 1/3 innings pitched against the Orioles this past Wednesday.
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Run-Line Picks is MLB can be viewed as ATS or Against the Spread Picks since a spread or in this case, a run-line is involved. Oddsmakers always open run-line spreads as -1.5 or +1.5 and then there is money associated with each run-line spread. Instead of backing a heavy money-line favorite, bettors have the option to back that team to win by two or more runs at a lower price. When taking the underdog at the +1.5 price, your wager can still lose the game outright but if it stays within the spread (1.5) then you'll be okay. Our MLB Run Line Free Picks will feature a selection either on the favorite or the underdog and will include betting analysis on how to lay or take the points.
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If you’re undecided on MLB ML or MLB Run Line Free Picks, you must be a Totals bettor and our Free MLB Over Under Totals Picks allow you to cheer for either a slugfest at the ballpark or a great pitching battle. Everybody loves the longball and cheering for an Over is much more fun but that doesn’t prevent our experts from playing the Under in our Free MLB Picks page and look for strikeouts. All selections featured in the MLB Over Under Totals Picks include betting analysis and tips on how to find the best markets.
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