After being spoiled week after week with solid NASCAR Sprint Cup racing, the series took the week off much to the dismay of the rabid NASCAR nation. However, most fans will attest that they would certainly give a week away and wait two weeks in order to receive a gift wrapped order of Talladega Super Speedway racing.
This track is an absolute monster; it’s the biggest, meanest, most intimidating track on the planet. Because of that danger, the race takes on a completely different realm for fans, drivers, and teams alike that is equaled by no other racing facility. By simply defying physics, the laws of gravity, and knowing what the drastic consequences could be if just the slightest mistake in the draft is made makes Talladega the single most "edge of your seat" track for Fans.
Nobody wants to see wrecks, but people like to see others challenge the norm and take it to the limit. Human nature has always been intrigued with those unfazed by risks. The circus thrilled mankind as far back as ancient Rome with their lion tamers and then much later watched in terror as trapeze artists and tightrope walkers defied gravity. In more recent history, Evel Knievil’s daredevil jumps paved the way for pay-per-view as we know it today because people across the world wanted to pay just to hold their breath and see what happens.
Once again on Sunday, Talladega will not disappoint. It will be action packed and guaranteed to keep you entertained and on the edge of your seat. Not so coincidentally, that is the sort of claim and same guarantee that Barnum and Bailey or Ringling Brothers made when they rolled into a town for a show.
All eyes this week will be on the No. 88 car driven by Dale Earnhardt Jr, the overwhelming fan favorite at the track, as he makes his first start at Talladega with Hendrick Motorsports and his 300th career Cup race start. Junior has raced in 16 Cup races at Talladega and has won 5 times times. During one stretch from 2001-2004, Junior won 5 of 7 Talladega races and in the process set a track record by winning 4 straight.
The feeling with most in the garages is that Junior is now ready to get back to that 2001-2004 level since he is now driving for the team that has the most recent success in restrictor plate races.
From 2001-2004, the DEI duo of Michael Waltrip and Junior won 11 restrictor plate races in 16 opportunities at Talladega and Daytona. During DEI’s last true year of dominance in plate races, a new era was evolving for Hendrick Motorsports which was reacquainting themselves with success in plate races. Jeff Gordon took two plate races in 2004 after going winless in 14 straight races. They had much success in the late nineties with 5 plate wins, including two Daytona 500 wins and then somehow it got away from them, or seemingly coincided with Ray Evernham leaving as Gordon’s crew chief and main source of data for the entire Hendrick team.
Whatever the case may be on why some teams have dominated over certain periods may always remain a mystery. Some teams adapted with certain required body templates sooner than others, but most say it’s about who’s the most clever at getting more horsepower to the engine. We say “clever” as another term to what others may call it, “Cheating”. Remember, it ain’t cheatin’ unless you get caught. I certainly believe it is a little of both and also believe it is a part of NASCAR that is, and always will remain, as part of the sport no matter what a raving steroid crazed media believes should deem okay.
As Junior embarks on his second plate race journey with Hendrick, his team will definitely be searching for edge to help break his 70 race winless streak. He’s run well this season and has been rewarded with sitting third place in points. Despite all the early good finishes, Junior wants to win at Talladega, the place his father dominated and won a track record 10 times. Should Junior win, it would make him the fourth driver in five consecutive Talladega races to win in a Hendrick car.
Jeff Gordon swept the two Talladega races last season, while in 2006, Brian Vickers and Jimmie Johnson won. Their plate record may not be as impressive as the DEI run, but from 2004-2007, Hendrick cars have won 9 of 16 plate races.
The cycle for both DEI and Hendrick is almost similar. Here we are one plate race into the 2008 season and Hendrick doesn’t claim it. In fact the craziest of occurrences happened in this years Daytona 500…..a Dodge won! Since 2001, only two Ford’s have won in plate races in 29 total events. Ryan Newman’s Dodge won at Daytona making a gap of 24 races between Dodge wins. I think you all get the point, but just to put the cherry on top, the last Dodge to win at Talladega was driven by Dave Marcis in 1976.
Clearly, Chevrolet has dominated the plate races, and most especially at Talladega. With all the statistical history we have placed before you, it may come as a surprise that the favorite to win this week drive Toyota’s. Even though neither Tony Stewart nor Kyle Busch won the Daytona 500, they dominated and were clearly the two best cars on the track with the slight edge given to Busch who not only had a horsepower edge, but also came up with the best handling car on the track, a combination hard to beat when both areas are clicking at the same time.
Tony Stewart has the distinction of tying an all-time NASCAR record while racing at Talladega. Stewart has finished second at Talladega six times without winning. That ties him with Alabaman Bobby Allison at Martinsville and Mark Martin at Pocono. Talladega remains one of four current Cup tracks that Stewart has never won on. He’s gone winless in 18 starts at Talladega which three more than Darlington, four more than California, and eight more than Las Vegas.
We’re going to look for Stewart to take his proven solid strategy of getting near the front at the end of the race, and look for him to take his new Toyota to the winners circle for the first time. It would be a first for Stewart on the season, in his new car, and ever at Talladega. It would also allow him to join his two Gibbs teammates, Kyle Busch and Denny Hamlin, as winners on the season. The majority of Stewart’s wins come in the later junction of the season, but this may be a race Stewart would like to take care of after so many close calls. It is also likely the “Bridesmaid” title doesn’t suit Stewart too well.
The driver we also want to look at creates a great ‘odds to win” opportunity with your favorite sports book. Kurt Busch pushed himself to a second place finish in the Daytona 500 while propelling his teammate to the win. He hasn’t come close to that kind of run since and will be looking forward to getting the teams’ plate program out there again. In the last 10 years of racing at Talladega, no one has a better average finish than Kurt Busch with a 10.0 average in 14 starts. He has almost as many third place finishes, four, as Stewart has seconds. In Busch’s last seven starts there, he hasn’t finished worse than eighth which says a lot considering how volatile the track is and also that he never drove a Chevy in any of those starts.
TOP 5 Finish Prediction:
#20 Tony Stewart (6/1)
#2 Kurt Busch (20/1)
#18 Kyle Busch (5/1)
#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (6/1)
#29 Kevin Harvick (15/1)
Danica finally sprays the Champagne
I just wanted to offer my congratulations to Danica Patrick for finally getting that gigantic monkey off her back. I don't want to place her unfairly in the category of sporting greats that finally achieved the goal they were reaching for during their career, however, Danica deserves much credit for hanging with it. Having the responsibility of not only taking criticism from a portion of male fans, but also from her colleagues she drives with should make her triumph that much more special.
She has brought much attention to herself with the scantily clad photos and tantrums on the track that vindicate all the naysayers that she's nothing more than Anna Kournikova in a firesuit. She's also had the weight of the entire Indy Car Series on her shoulders as they continually use her as the main marketing tool for the series, a series that has fallen light years behind NASCAR among North American auto racing fans. So it took her 50 races, big Deal! She did it, and now everything is set up perfectly for her, and the series as the INDY 500 rolls around next month. I, for one, will be rooting for her.
From an odds aspect, don’t expect to get 15 to 1 on her anymore as was the case last week when she won in Japan. She'll likely be in the 9 to 1 category, slightly lower than her teammate Marco Andretti, which means that the Big 4 of Tony Kanaan, Helio Castroneves, Scott Dixon, and Dan Wheldon will all have their raised weekly because Danica has now joined the party and can be considered a threat to win the Indy Car Series race at Kansas this week will come with huge fanfare and publicity because of Danica.
Micah Roberts is a Race and Sports Director for Station Casinos in Las Vegas , Nevada who covers motor sports from both a bettor and bookmaker's perspective.
