The NASCAR Sprint Cup race at Loudon, New Hampshire this weekend has already been played out somewhat because of what we have seen at two separate tracks already this season. The future can be seen as well as any combination of tracks on the circuit by observing what happens on the three similar tracks of New Hampshire, Richmond, and Phoenix.

All three of the tracks are varied in shape and size, but the one common denominator is that they are all relatively flat. The successful crew chiefs always bring the same chassis that did well on one of those particular tracks to the next on the mid-flat track circuit. The history at Loudon shows that if you are good on one of the three tracks, you’ll likely be good on all three no matter what era or model of car.

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Last season, the first year of the COT proved to be just as predictable as the old models with Jimmie Johnson winning 3 of the 6 combined spring and fall races at each track. In 2006 Kevin Harvick put on a show dominating in 4 of the 6 races. In fact, of all the years of having two races at New Hampshire, only 2001 stands out as a year where there was no multiple winners by one driver.

Kurt Busch held the title belt for a while passed on from Dale Earnhardt Jr, Johnson again, Matt Kenseth, Jeff Burton, Tony Stewart, Burton again, and Dale Jarrett. Prior to those drivers, Terry Labonte, Rusty Wallace, and Davey Allison were paving the way for modern day teams as they tied together the similarities between Phoenix and Richmond, the blue print of which still exists today.

Having exhausted myself with all that fanatical ranting, the driver to look at this week is a driver that hasn’t even won yet at Phoenix or Richmond. Jimmie Johnson and Clint Bowyer visited the winners circle in those races, but the car that perhaps may have been the most dominant combined in both races was Denny Hamlin’s.

Hamlin finished 3rd in the fuel gambled win by Johnson at Phoenix and then led 381 laps at Richmond until his tire went flat. When Hamlin was taken out of the mix, Kyle Busch battled Junior for the win and almost wrecked each other. When they wobbled and slowed, Bowyer swooped in with the cherry pickin’ win.

So if you look at the actual races and what happened and see who dominated them, or at least did well in both, you should have a good head start at possibly snagging a good price. Junior falls into that category because he ran very well at both without the final results saying so plus he’s got several combined wins at Phoenix and Richmond during his career.

Another driver that fits criteria is Mark Martin who was leading at Phoenix before having to pit at the end of the race. He finished 5th there and then came back with a 3rd at Richmond. The issue this week is that this is one of the races Martin steps aside for rookie Aric Almirola. The car will be good and Almirola presents a decent long shot chance of winning. No one will give him shot just because he’s Aric Almirola so his odds will likely be pretty high. He’ll also fare well in matchups against lesser opponents that drive below average cars.

The other good car at D.E.I. is Martin Truex Jr who has taken his car to two top ten finishes in the two races run, being one of only five drivers in the two races to finish in the top ten in both.

Kyle Busch will likely be Hamlin’s toughest competition this week. In 6 Loudon starts he has 3 top 5 finishes that include one win. If it comes down to the two at the end of the race, I’d look for Kyle to take a back seat to Hamlin if Hamlin is up front late. Hamlin won’t buy that theory though because he knows Kyle will bump anyone if it gets him in the win, so Hamlin will have to drive like it’s the plague chasing him.

TOP 5 Finish prediction:

1-#11 Denny Hamlin (8/1)
2-#18 Kyle Busch (7/1)
3-#88 Dale Earnhardt Jr (12/1)
4-#1 Martin Truex Jr (20/1)
5-#07 Clint Bowyer (10/1)

And they’re OFF……..

This week’s race in Loudon begins the “Race to the Chase”. It’s the 10 race stretch before the 12 drivers are set to go in the Chase for the Championship which will be determined in the “Cut-Off” race at Richmond September 6th. Currently, we got a nice battle between Stewart, Harvick, and Kenseth vying for the 11th and 12th position with a couple upstarts like David Ragan and Brian Vickers waiting for one of the to fall. Should be fun!