The last time the Sprint Cup series visited Michigan the NASCAR Nation got to witness the most exciting finish thus far into the 2008 season. The drama from that June race was helped considerably just by the fact the principle of the action flick was none other than Dale Earnhardt Jr. The build-up to the Hollywood ending was great, and even if I tried, I couldn’t attempt to write or sell the concept. But here it goes the sells pitch anyway.
We have a down on his luck kid in the midst of a 76 week bad luck streak. Just as the new year started he had moved from an orphanage run by the meanest woman in the South to the better pastures of being adopted by the wealthiest man in Metropolis. The first thing the kid got with his new found wealth and breath of fresh air was a brand new car. The jalopy he used to drive was left behind at the orphanage.
There were a lot of expectations placed on the kid now that he had all the wealth and means to go from being Prince of the Orphans to King of all the land. Still, the poor luck continued through the first quarter of the year until one summer day, all his bad luck culminated into one gigantic lucky turnaround to the greatest degree of good luck.
That’s how the Hollywood story goes. However, not even they could make what happened at Michigan in June believable on film. I’d believe that a driver could “drop the hammer” at Daytona like they did in “Days of Thunder” to gain more speed on a superspeedway more so than I can believe how in the world Junior was able to run on fumes to victory and beat everyone else. How he was able to utilize the cautions without getting extra lap and a green-white-checker and coasts without gassing, turning the power switch off and on several times was brilliant.
Had it been anyone else, like say…….well, anyone, it wouldn’t have been the same emotion that stirred through so many fans. The fact that it was Junior who had gone 76 races without a win and it took such a suspenseful twist for him to break the streak made it “THE” moment of the 2008 season.
The win by Junior also gave a major boost to a slacking manufacturer in their home state. Chevrolet hadn’t won in Michigan for 13 straight races despite having Cup champions like Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson, and Tony Stewart driving a Chevy. Other than a Gordon win in ’98, the last Chevy Michigan win prior to Gordon’s two came in ’95 by a young Joe Gibbs car driven by up and comer Bobby Labonte, who happened to sweep the ’95 season there.
Michigan has definitely been a Ford track for some reason. The correlation over that span points straight towards Jack Roush’s rise in the sport and is right in the middle of Robert Yates glory years. Yates has had Davey Allison, Ernie Irvan, and Dale Jarrett claims wins in his cars. Roush has gone a step further with Mark Martin, Kurt Busch, Greg Biffle, Matt Kenseth, and Carl Edwards all taking checkered flags in Michigan. Roush is 2nd all-time in Michigan wins with ten.
Even though it’s going against the trend of Ford dominance, we’re going to look for Chevy to pull off a sweep of the season with Jimmie Johnson getting his first career victory there followed by a whole lot of Fords. Johnson had the car to beat there in June and led the most laps. It’s puzzling that a driver as good as Johnson has been over the years hasn’t won on a track like Michigan. He has 13 starts with only two top 5 finishes. On paper, Michigan would appear to be a track Johnson and his team should do very well on in each of the last 7 seasons, but that hasn’t been the case.
The Roush Fords will all be near the front chasing Jimmie down. Look for a possible breakthrough win by David Ragan. He’s definitely worth a shot if he can found in the 30 to 50 to 1 odds range. For matchup players, it wouldn’t be in the best financial interest of your wallet to bet against Roush this weekend. While I like Jimmie to win and I believe this is time of the year to shine, I still am a bit uneasy going against Roush.
Top 5 Finish prediction:
#48 Jimmie Johnson (6/1)
#99 Carl Edwards (7/1)
#9 Kasey Kahne (8/1)
#17 Matt Kenseth (11/1)
#6 David Ragan (30/1)
NASCAR SPRINT CUP SERIES NOTES
Kyle Busch Clinches Top Seeding and is Close To Clinching Chase Berth
Kyle Busch’s eight victories have clinched the Chase’s “top seeding” because of the 80 bonus points those wins provide. This weekend, Busch can become the first driver to clinch a Chase berth, by finishing 10th or better on Sunday.
Busch is setting a few records along the way with his dominance. He became the first driver in NASCAR national series history to win three road course races in a single season. With six more wins, he’ll also break the modern era record for NASCAR Sprint Cup Series wins of 13 (Richard Petty in 1975 and Jeff Gordon in 1998). Busch became the 18th driver with eight or more wins in the first 22 races of a season – 13 of the previous 17 went on to win the series championship.
Six Drivers Separated By 107 Points
With four races remaining until the Chase begins, the tension builds, with the 12th-place position in points the focus. 12th-place belongs to Kenseth this week. Nothing is secure. Positions 8-13 are separated by a mere 107 points. At the bottom of that list is Clint Bowyer, only 22 behind Kenseth.
Ambrose Leads Wood Brothers Back to Top 5
Marcos Ambrose has arrived. His weekend included getting a Nationwide Series win on Saturday and then drove the Wood Brothers clunker from 43rd start position to 3rd. It was the Wood Brothers first top 5 since Ricky Rudd finished 4th in 2005 at Bristol. Ambrose closed at 7 to 2 from opening at 5 to 1 in Saturday’s race at Station’s Sports Book. For the Cup race, Ambrose opened at 30 to 1 and closed at 11 to 1.
Ambrose will race in the No. 21 Ford again this week at Michigan, a place that no team has won more at than the Wood Brothers with 11 wins. If you like his chances again this week you can get 125 to 1 on him at Stations.
