UFC 169 Betting Notes
January 30, 2014
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Renan Barao (33-1) vs. Urijah Faber (30-6)
Renan Barao -330 (Bet $295 to win $100)
Urijah Faber +250 (Bet $100 to win $250)
Urijah Faber gets his rematch against Renan Barao as the bantamweight title will be on the line at UFC 169 in Newark, NJ.
In the last matchup between these two fighters on July 21, 2012, Barao won in a five-round unanimous decision. While Faber was able to take the fight the distance, he was never in a great position to win the fight with his opponent holding the 85-60 striking advantage. Barao was in complete control of that match, but will be facing a different Faber on Saturday. Faber was outstanding in 2013, going 4-0, including an impressive victory over Michael McDonald on Dec. 14. He was able to submit McDonald in the second round with a Guillotine choke, and will be coming into this match with his confidence at an extreme high.
All Barao has done is go unbeaten his past 33 fights (32 wins, 1 no-contest) spanning more than eight years. He is one of the most versatile fighters in UFC and has won his 21 straight fights in many different ways. In his last victory on Sept. 21, he delivered an electric spinning back kick and punches to defeat Eddie Wineland. Barao is so good at establishing the pace of the fight early, and not allowing his opponent to get in any kind of rhythm. Despite being just the first day of February, this has the makings of a potential Fight of the Year type matchup.
Barao is a complete fighter, as he has the ability to win in many different ways. He has 14 victories by submission, with 12 wins by decision and seven knockouts. Barao is an elite striker where his quickness creates a lot of problems for his opponents. He lands 3.66 strikes per minute, a big advantage over Faber who connects on 2.71 strikes per minute. While he is an explosive athlete, what makes "The Baron" even more difficult is that his cardio very well may be the best in the sport. The 26-year-old Brazilian is able to be aggressive the entire fight, and does not have to worry about becoming tired. He does a great job of keeping the fight on his feet too, as he has a takedown defense of 95%, which is well ahead of Faber's 36% takedown defense.
The 34-year-old Faber throughout his career has become a fan favorite because of his intense fighting style. He is 7-2 in his career as a bantamweight, and has 15 career victories by submission, with nine by knockout and six decision victories. During his four-fight win streak in 2013, Faber had three submission wins over Ivan Menjivar, Iuri Alcantara and Michael McDonald. While Faber does not land as many strikes as Barao, he is more accurate when throwing his punches (43% for Faber, 36% for Barao). In the last matchup with Barao, Faber was unable to get things going, and instead was forced to fight on the defensive for much of the match. With that in mind, look for him to really come out early and try to bring the fight to Barao, who is the same height (5-foot-6) and weight (135 pounds) as "The California Kid."
Jose Aldo (23-1) vs. Ricardo Lamas (13-2)
Jose Aldo -675 (Bet $675 to win $100)
Urijah Faber +475 (Bet $100 to win $475)
Jose Aldo has been dominant in his past few fights, and is a heavy favorite to retain his featherweight belt as he goes up against Ricardo Lamas on Saturday night in Newark, NJ.
Aldo hasn't lost since 2005, prevailing in 16 straight fights, including some of the best fighters that the sport has seen. He has defeated guys such as Kenny Florian, Urijah Faber and Chad Mendes in many different ways. His victory over Mendes saw him deliver a punishing knee to knock him out with just one second remaining in the first round. Aldo is such a fast and explosive fighter that he once he sets the pace of the fight, it is nearly impossible to slow him down. Three of his past five matches have gone to decision, showing that he does not wear himself out when on the attack. His versatility and ability to keep coming at his opponent is going to make things very difficult for Lamas to keep up with him.
Lamas enters the match with four consecutive victories, including a TKO win over Erik Koch in his most recent fight which occurred more than a year ago on Jan. 26, 2013. Lamas is a punishing fighter that has the ability to end the match in a hurry, and has the biggest opportunity of his career right in front of him.
Of Aldo’s 23 career victories, 15 of them have come by knockout. He also has seven victories by decision and one by submission. The 27-year-old Brazilian comes into this match with a huge advantage when it comes to striking, landing 3.29 strikes per minute compared to just 2.44 for Lamas. Aldo is nearly impossible to take to the ground with his 92% takedown defense, which is nearly double the 48% takedown defense of Lamas. Aldo has a significant edge in a takedown percentage of 69% compared to just 38% for Lamas. "Junior" Aldo has the advantage in pretty much every area going into this fight, but cedes one inch in height to the 5-foot-8 Lamas. While Aldo is an overwhelming favorite on Saturday, he must remain focused at the task at hand, and not overlook Lamas.
Lamas is not a big trash talker compared to most fighters in the UFC, but just goes out and does his job by letting his actions do the talking. He has won seven of his past eight fights, including four in a row since being knocked out in the first round by Iuri Alcantara on Dec. 16, 2010. The 31-year-old Chicago native has six career victories by decision, with four knockouts and three submissions. For "The Bully" Lamas to stay in this fight, he will have to take Aldo down to the ground. While that is a very difficult thing to do, he does have the strength to do it with an impressive 2.03 takedown average, nearly twice of what Aldo produces (1.03 takedown average). While this is the biggest fight of his career, Lamas cannot let the magnitude of the situation change his mindset. If he gets baited into fighting the style that Aldo wants, this could be over very quickly.
UFC 169 - Other Bouts
Gasan Umalatov -215
Neil Magny +165
Rashid Magomedov -240
Tony Martin +180
Clint Hester -225
Andy Enz +175
Al Iaquinta -245
Kevin Lee +185
Nick Catone +160
Tom Watson -190
Chris Cariaso -170
Danny Martinez +140
John Makdessi -170
Alan Patrick +140
Jamie Varner -130
Abel Trujillo +100
John Lineker +100
Ali Bagautinov -130
Alistair Overeem -330
Frank Mir +250