UFC 170 Betting Notes
February 19, 2014
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Event: UFC 170
Date: February 22, 2014
Venue: Mandalay Bay Events Center
Location: Las Vegas, Nevada
Women's Bantamweight Championship - Ronda Rousey (8-0) vs. Sara McMann (7-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Rousey -450, McMann +300
Ronda Rousey defends her title belt for the second time in two months as she takes on Sara McMann Saturday night at UFC 170 in Las Vegas.
Rousey is coming off the most difficult match of her career against Miesha Tate on Dec. 28, but was able to get the victory in the third round. This was the first match in her career that made it past the first round, but she did a terrific job of getting the win against a fierce competitor. For Rousey, she will always go into the octagon thinking that she is the best fighter in the match. Her strength and competitiveness are her two biggest advantages. She will be facing an opponent in McMann that will be fighting in just her second career UFC match. In her most recent bout at UFC 159 on April 27, she showed her knockout out ability by delivering devastating punches to knock out Sheila Gaff in just 54 seconds. If she is able to keep the match on her feet, she has a chance.
"Rowdy" Rousey has eight career victories, and all of eight of them have come by way of arm-bar submission. Seven of those wins were finished in the first round. Her opponents all know what she is looking to do, but it has not mattered. She has a staggering takedown average of 8.11, but McMann also has an impressive takedown average of 6.78. Rousey’s submission average of 6.08 is also extremely high. Basically, if she is able to get the match to the ground, you can chalk it up as a win for Rousey. She has an average of 2.66 significant strikes landed per minute, while McMann is nearly as effective with 2.57 strikes landed per minute. The 27-year-old Rousey’s confidence entering the octagon is unparalleled in the sport. If she comes into the fight too confident, then McMann may have one chance to get the victory.
McMann has seven victories in her career, with three of them coming by decision. She also has two wins by knockout and two by submission, showing that she is a well-rounded fighter. A big statistic to look at for McMann is her takedown defense of 100 percent. While she has not faced anybody that has the takedown ability of Rousey, she has done a great job in her career of not getting taken to the ground. She also defends strikes pretty well at 55%, which is very close to Rousey's 56% striking defense. That vicious knockout power she displayed in her last match showed what she is capable of. The 33-year-old Gardner-Webb University graduate will be going into the fight looking for a career defining moment, but she must not allow Rousey to get her on the ground. These women both weigh 135 pounds with Rousey holding the slight one-inch height advantage.
Light Heavyweight Bout - Daniel Cormier (13-0) vs. Patrick Cummins (4-0)
Sportsbook.ag Line: Cormier -1,200, Cummins +775
Daniel Cormier makes his debut in the light heavyweight class on Saturday night as he goes up against Patrick Cummins at UFC 170 in a battle of unbeaten fighters.
Cormier is coming off a victory over Roy Nelson on Oct. 19 at UFC 166 by way of unanimous decision. In that fight, he was able to wear Nelson down, showing off his terrific cardio and conditioning with an overwhelming 74-17 striking advantage. Cormier is dropping to the light heavyweight class in large part because of his friendship with heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez. He has a chance to become a legitimate title contender in this weight class, as very few light heavyweights can match his strength. Cormier has an impressive resume with victories over Josh Barnett, Antonio Silva and Frank Mir. He will going up against a fighter in Cummins who literally just signed with the UFC. This match was supposed to Cormier against Rashad Evans, but an injury forced Evans to be out. Cummins is very new to the sport, with only four professional matches under his belt. He is a very tough fighter that has the power and strength to create a lot of damage.
Of "DC" Cormier’s 13 career victories, he has a well-rounded five wins by decision, five KO victories and three wins by submission. The 34-year-old also has an impressive 4.02 strikes landed per minute in the UFC, and is a nice combination of speed and power. He's also very smart in knowing how to position himself, defending 100 percent of his takedowns and defending 71% of significant strikes in his career. The former Oklahoma State University wrestler has gone up against some of the strongest fighters in the sport, and that will be a huge advantage for him going into this fight. For Cormier, he must stay focused on the task at hand. This is a match that he is a huge favorite in, and he can’t afford to overlook his opponent. Cummins enters this bout with absolutely nothing to lose, and that can be a dangerous fighter in the sport.
"Durkin" Cummins has two victories by knockout and two by submission, with all four being finished in the first round. Therefore, the longer this match continues, the more at a disadvantage Cummins might be against his superiorly experienced opponent. The 33-year-old Penn State graduate is a versatile fighter that can do a lot of damage on the ground as well as with his hands. He was a two-time All-American in college and the 2004 NCAA runner-up in wrestling, so despite not having any UFC experience, Cummins has thrived on the big stage before. He does know his opponent pretty well though, having trained with Cormier on the U.S. National team. Cummins actually wrestled Cormier in the quarterfinals of the 2007 Dave Schultz International Open, losing by decision. But in this match, he will have a lot of problems trying to take Cormier to the ground as he just does not have the strength to match up with him in this fight. For Cummins, look for him to really go all out in this fight with nothing to lose. This match very easily could end in electrifying fashion, and Cummins has the ability to knock out his opponent.
Welterweight Bout - Rory MacDonald (15-2) vs. Demian Maia (18-5)
Sportsbook.ag Line: MacDonald -300, Maia +240
Rory MacDonald looks to bounce back from his second career loss as he goes up against Demian Maia at UFC 170 in Las Vegas on Saturday.
In his last fight on Nov. 16, MacDonald lost a tough match against Robbie Lawler by way of split decision. While he was unable to get the victory that night, MacDonald is still one of the bright young stars in the sport. At 24 years old, his best days are ahead of him and he is continuing to improve in every fight. Already on his resume, MacDonald has victories against BJ Penn, Jake Ellenberger and Nate Diaz. With the welterweight class wide open now that Georges St.-Pierre has retired, MacDonald has a chance to quickly get into the discussion for a title bout. Like MacDonald, Maia will be looking to get back on the winning track. In his last fight on Oct. 9, he lost to Jake Shields by way of split decision. The 36-year old has been impressive in his career, and has battled some of the very best in his sport, including losses to Chris Weidman and Anderson Silva in a 2010 title bout. For Maia, this could be his last chance to ever get back into a title conversation.
Of his 15 career victories, "Ares" MacDonald has six wins by both knockout and submission, prevailing in just three fights by way of decision. Seven of those finishes have come in the first round. Heading into this bout, MacDonald will have a huge advantage when it comes to striking, landing 3.9 strikes per minute compared to 1.7 for Maia. He is also much more accurate with his punches (48.3% for MacDonald, 40.8% for Maia) and defends strikes better too with a 65.3% defense compared to 61.9% for his opponent. Striking will be huge in this matchup as these two fighters are very comparable when it comes to takedowns (3.15 for MacDonald and 3.14 for Maia). If the Canadian MacDonald is able to control this fight and turn it into more of a brawl, then he should be able to get an easy victory. However, if this fight goes to the ground, the heavy underdog Maia has a significant chance to get this win.
Maia is a talented submission artist, with nine of his 18 career victories coming by this way, which includes half of his dozen UFC wins. He also has three submissions and six wins by decision. Maia is a terrific wrestler, and this is his best chance to get the victory. He has a submission average of 1.37, compared to just 0.83 for MacDonald. The Brazilian will not be intimidated heading into this match, as his experience against the top fighters in the sport could go a long way in determining which fighter is able to get the win. MacDonald is going to come into this match looking to take control early. If Maia is able to hang on early and get the fight to the later rounds, then he has a chance to steal the victory.
UFC 170 - Other Bouts
Ernest Chavez (+230)
Yosdenis Cedeno (-280)
Rafaello Oliveira (+300)
Erik Koch (-400)
Zach Makovsky (-175)
Josh Sampo (+145)
Cody Gibson (+190)
Aljamain Sterling (-245)
Raphael Assunção (-190)
Pedro Munhoz (+160)
Women's Bantamweight Matchup:
Alexis Davis (+130)
Jessica Eye (+130)
Robert Whittaker (+115)
Stephen Thompson (-135)
Mike Pyle (-180)
TJ Waldburger (+155)
**Odds subject to change**
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