Top Bets - Aldo-Holloway
December 1, 2017
UFC 218 Fight Preview – Can Aldo Reclaim The Throne?
The odd thing about UFC 218 is that it reads like a fight card that should go chalk. All of the favorites are legitimate bosses, and some of the underdogs might be fading stars that seem too familiar to turn away from. This isn’t exactly a passing of the torch type of card, but it has those elements.
If you bet mixed martial arts frequently then you know that these main cards never play out with favorites sweeping their rivals under the octagon. There’s value somewhere on this board if you’re willing to take some leaps. Or you could simply grind out with some heavy wagers on the UFC 218 favorites. Truthfully it just depends on what you can stomach and what constitutes a “good night” for you. You can go full tilt and win more money than you started with, or take some swings to try and turn a little in to a lot. UP to you, as always.
UFC 218 comes to you live from Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan on Saturday, December 2nd. As usual, get your bets in as early as possible.
UFC Featherweight Championship
Jose Aldo +250 over Max Holloway -300
Max Holloway has been nothing less than a revelation in the featherweight division. His ruthless decimation of Anthony Pettis to win the title at UFC 206 was followed up with a solid title defence against Jose Aldo at UFC 212, which helped solidify his place as a deserving champion.
The mystique around Aldo has completely evaporated, and the former pound-for-pound champion has never truly recovered from the one-punch loss to Conor McGregor nearly two years ago. His bought with Frankie Edgar was a bit disappointing, and his stunning loss to Holloway during their unification bout was…upsetting.
So why take Aldo? For pure sentimentality. Aldo has been one of the best fighters of this generation, but it’s obvious that he’s lost that edge. After seeing him crumple in just 13 seconds against McGregor, almost every single featherweight in the UFC instantly stopped being scared of him. They all know the truth. His chin is soft.
I find it difficult to invest in fighters that are asking for -300 to earn money, so I’d rather go the other way most of the time. Beyond that, I don’t know what will happen to Aldo following this fight. If he regains his title at the tender age of 31 he may have a chance to rejuvenate his career.
Should he lose…it might all be over for Aldo. If you are a fan of Aldo this may be your last chance ever to get behind him. Betting on UFC 218 shouldn’t always be done with your heart, but in this fight I can’t help myself. None of this is a shot against Holloway. His odds are just too difficult to make money off of.
Henry Cejudo -280 over Sergio Pettis +240
This is a pure matchup nightmare for Pettis, a fighter who has never shown that he’s capable of surviving on the mat. Truthfully, Cejudo is a problem for anyone and the recent win over Wilson Reis allowed the Olympic gold medalist to show off his striking prowess. If that’s an actual part of his arsenal now then the flyweight division is going to get really interesting. This is by far the safest play on the board. Pettis is riding a five–fight win streak, but he’s out of his league in this bout.
Justin Gaethje -185 over Eddie Alvarez +160
This might be a steep price to pay, but wavering over to Eddie Alvarez simply because he’s a mild +160 dog is a fool’s errand. It’s impossible to know where Eddie’s head is at after he was DQ’d in the Poirier matchup. Let’s not forget that Alvarez was never really a main eventer. He won the lightweight championship in a rousing upset against dos Anjos on free television, and only lined up against McGregor because he was carrying a strap that Notorious wanted.
Considering that Alvarez’s last five fights have included a knockout loss, knockout win, two split decisions and a disqualification, it’s impossible to trust him.
Gaethje proved he deserves a push in the UFC after knocking out Michael Johnson and improving his record to a perfect 18-0 SU. The 29 year old is a ruthless killer who has earned 15 wins via knockout. Eddie’s vulnerable stand-up game will do him in again.
Alistair Overeem +180 over Francis Ngannou -210
If you’re excited for any fight on this card, it’s the heavyweight matchup. Love him or hate him, Overeem is a certified beast and he’s getting fantastic odds here. It’s hard to believe that this will be his fiftieth fight.
And what an opponent his signed up to take on. Francis Ngannou is a terrifyingly strong striker. He’s been on a merciless winning streak since signing on to the UFC, and is 10-1 SU with his last loss coming four years ago. The list of bodies that he’s left in his path of destruction is impressive and was most recently highlighted by a swift knockout of Andrei Arlovski.
Where Overeem has an advantage is in his experience, but that’s really all he has. We saw in his loss to Miocic that he no longer has the speed or power to trade hands. Ngannou is a head hunter, and will patiently wait for his chance to wreak catastrophe with his knuckles. Overeem’s stand-up defence is garbage and Ngannou might be the most exciting up-and-coming heavyweight there is.
This is going to be a jaw dropping collision of force, but Ngannou is worth every penny you spend on him despite his strong odds. There isn’t anything in Overeem’s arsenal that suggests he’s ready to take on the devastating power that Ngannou can throw.
Michelle Waterson +205 over Tecia Torres -240
Torres absolutely deserves to be favored, but by this much? I’m not so sure. It hasn’t been long since we talked about Waterson with deserved reverence. Her loss to Rose Namajunas seemed to be a major setback, but then we found out that Rose is a champion worthy fighter who quickly became a fan favorite. There’s not a ton of open value on the board at UFC 218 but Waterson has the best true chance of any underdog listed to overcome the odds. Worth a scramble in my books.
Bet on the entire UFC 218 card at BetOnline.ag and check out all the fight lines we have for upcoming events while you’re at it!
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