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Opening Round Angles
March 12, 2012
By Marc Lawrence
VegasInsider.com
Editor's Note: Don't miss out on March Madness winners from Marc Lawrence this postseason. Click to win!
The 2012 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it once final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season. To make that shining moment happen, let's take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past. Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise.
NCAA TOURNEY - MOST RECENT TRENDS
#1 Seeds are 84-0 SU (48-35-1 ATS) vs. #16 Seeds
#2 Seeds are 80-4 SU (35-45-4 ATS) vs. #15 Seeds
Only TWICE since 1988 has a #12 Seed failed to beat a #5 Seed (5-7 SU & 8-4 ATS L3Y)
Favorites of 7 > pts who are 3-0 SU & ATS in their last 3 games are 14-28-1 ATS vs a foe off a SU win
Favorites of 20 > pts are 2-8 ATS vs. a foe off a SU win
Favorites of > 7 pts who scored 100 > pts in last Conference Tourney game are 11-2 ATS
Dogs of 4 > pts playing off a SU Conference Tourney win as a dog of 6 > pts are 7-27-1 ATS last 12 years
Dogs of 18 > pts off a DD ATS win are 5-1 ATS
Dogs off a SU tourney win in which they allowed 80 > pts are 2-11 ATS
Because it's my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let's take a look at some of the more relevant Most Recent Trend results that have occurred in ROUND ONE games of late:
FIRST ROUND NOTES
#1 Seeds off BB SU wins who are favorites of < 25 pts are 12-2 ATS
#2 Seeds are 9-24-4 ATS vs foes off a SU win
#3 Seeds off a SU favorite loss are 32-1 SU & 24-8-1 ATS (10-2 L7Y)
#4 Seeds are 27-13 ATS as favorites of < 9 pts (11-4 L7Y)
#7 Seeds are 1-7 ATS vs. foes off BB SU losses
#9 Seeds are 0-4 ATS as favorites of > 2 pts
Conference Tournament Champs in this round
ACC: 3-0-1 ATS
Atlantic 10: 1-4 ATS
Big 10: 4-6 ATS
Big 12: 3-8 ATS
Big East: 5-1 ATS
Big West: 1-5 ATS
Colonial: 12-6 ATS
C-USA: 1-4 ATS
Horizon: 6-1 ATS
MAC: 6-2 ATS
Missouri Valley: 2-5 ATS
Mountain West: 3-11 ATS
Pac-12: 4-2 ATS
Sun Belt: 3-2 ATS
SEC: 1-3 ATS
WAC: 2-5 ATS
West Coast: 3-1 ATS
Best Team SU records in this round
Purdue: 13-0
North Carolina: 10-0
Kansas: 5-0
Wisconsin: 5-0
Kentucky: 18-1
Duke: 14-1
Cincinnati 10-1
Worst Team SU records in this round
Clemson: 0-5
New Mexico St: 0-4
Creighton: 1-5
Best Team ATS records in this round
VCU: 4-0
Xavier: 6-1-2
NC State: 5-1
New Mexico: 5-1
West Virginia: 5-1
Purdue: 4-1
Worst Team ATS records in this round
Clemson: 0-5
Temple: 0-4
Creighton: 1-5
Notre Dame: 1-4
Best Conference ATS records in this round
Big 10: 6-1
Pac 12: 8-2
Horizon: 9-3
MAC: 9-3
Colonial: 8-4
Missouri Valley: 14-7
Worst Conference ATS records in this round
CUSA: 1-5
Big West: 1-4
Ivy: 3-11
Big 12: 2-7
If this is not enough to get your blood flowing then you may be seriously in need of a cardiologist. I'll be back next week with a look at Sweet 16 and Elite 8 Round action.
Now, let the games begin!
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