Top 10 - Stock Watch
December 17, 2013
By Greg Smith
Editor's Note: Greg Smith's college basketball selections can be purchased daily on VegasInsider.com. Click to win!
Now that football is winding down and your nights are spent watching college basketball it will be important to know which top teams will have a betting advantage.
Every week I will break down the current AP Top 10 and point out which teams you should Buy or Sell in my StockWatch report. This will give you an idea from a betting standpoint what teams to bet on, against or just watch.
Remember, we are looking at whether a team can cover the spread in their upcoming games. Not necessarily win.
1) Arizona (11-0 SU, 8-3 ATS) - HOLD
No reason to bet against the Wildcats at this point. They have earned their top spot, by taking care of Duke, Michigan and San Diego State. Freshman sensation Aaron Gordon is finding his rhythm in the Sean Miller offense. With Southern and Northern Arizona next on their schedule the line will be large and the risk of a back door cover could be likely. Hold off on Zona.
2) Syracuse (10-0 SU, 4-3 ATS) - HOLD
I’m a little pessimistic on the Orangemen. Their schedule thus far has not been difficult. They played their first road game last week and snuck out a win over St. Johns. Even with an easy schedule they have not been impressive, covering the spread just over 50% of the time . Let’s hold on Boeheim for now and make him prove it.
3) Ohio State (10-0 SU, 5-4 ATS) - BUY
With four returning starters and an Elite 8 appearance last year, this team is anything but “wet behind the ears.” LaQuinton Ross is finding his rhythm, averaging 18 points in his last 5 games. They get their first real test this Saturday, when they travel to South Bend, but this veteran team has played in much tougher venues. I’m buying the Buckeyes this week.
4) Wisconsin (12-0 SU, 8-4 ATS) - HOLD
Every year Bo Ryan gets the most out of his players. This year is no exception. Keep an eye on this team. They’re not playing this week, so you’ll have no choice but to hold, but be looking to save your bankroll to bet this team in January.
5) Michigan State (8-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) - BUY
Best thing to happen to a bettor is having a Tom Izzo team nearly getting upset by a team like Oakland. They have a big matchup this Saturday against Texas. You will still have to lay the points but the oddsmakers won’t be nearly as greedy due to their previous performance. I like to buy a Spartan team that’s been awakened.
6) Louisville: (9-1 SU, 4-4 ATS) - SELL
I’m not impressed with Rick Pitino opponents thus far. They have yet to play a true road game and they are only 4-4 ATS. North Carolina has been their only true test and they were man handled shooting 38% vs. the Tar Heels 54% from the field. Cardinals need to prove something first, before I go to the ticket window with this team in mind. Right now they rank high because of last year’s performance. Too much inflation for me…SELL.
7) Oklahoma State (9-1 SU, 4-3 ATS) - BUY
It took a while, but teams finally started to figure out they can’t leave Marcus Smart open. But…with four returning starters and having played some challenging teams already, they have shown some toughness. They will have their work cut out for them, Saturday vs. Colorado, but I still like the Cowboys to pull away late.
8) Duke (8-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) - BUY
Coach K has already lost to one PAC-12 opponent, this year. He won’t lose another. Buy, Buy, Buy… Thursday vs. UCLA.
9) Villanova (10-0 SU, 7-1 ATS) - BUY
The Wildcats are 7-1 ATS…enough said. I bet against 'Nova last week and paid for it dearly. They will get a real chance to move up the polls when they play Syracuse next Saturday (12/28). I like this team. They play with passion and are very quick up and down the court. Unfortunately, they won’t go under the radar, making their stock a little less valued, but still worth the bet. For the next couple of weeks I’m buying the Wildcats until they can prove me wrong.
10) Connecticut (9-0 SU, 3-5 ATS) - SELL
Anytime a coach can bring back all 5 starters you have a real chance to make statement in your conference and the Huskies will have their chance, just not this week. UCONN plays Stanford and UW. I believe they can beat the Cardinal, but then hop on a plane and play UW in a very tough venue. I would sell UCONN later in the week. Too much travel in too short of time.
5-2 L7, 20-7 Run, 9-3 L12 G-Plays
19-7 L26, 33-13 Streak, +6,809 TY
3-0 L3 G-Plays, +6,651 Totals TY
6-2 L8, 27-10 Run, 9-2 G-Plays
9-1 L6 Days, 4-0 L4 Guarantees
8-2 L10 Guarantees, 5-2 L4 Days
3-0 L3, 9-2 L11 Picks, +2,124 TY
11-3 L14 G-Plays, 12-4 L6 Days
5-2 L7, 15-7 L22 Guarantees
4-2 L6 G-Plays, 25-14 L39 Picks
+5,367 Net Profits L28 Days
+1,792 Net Profits This Year
18-8 L26 Picks, 16-8 L24 G-Plays
14-6 L20 Over/Under Plays
12-4 Win Streak, 11-2 Totals TY
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