Top 10 - Stock Watch
February 4, 2014
By Greg Smith
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February is here!
Expect teams that were thumped by Top 10 teams earlier in the season to be focused and prepared to put up a fight…especially at home.
Favorites covering the spread this time of year will come at a premium.
1) Syracuse: (22-0 SU, 11-6-1 ATS) - BUY
It’s going to get a little tricky for the Orange. They should be able to handle the Clemson Tigers in the Carrier Dome on Sunday, but if you are a ‘Cuse fan; bet them now, it may be the last time you get decent value with the spread.
2) Arizona: (21-1 SU, 13-8-0 ATS) - SELL
The Wildcats finally slipped up against California last Saturday after close calls with Utah and Stanford in their previous game. Arizona is now 0-4 ATS in its last four. This week, they head home to play a struggling Oregon team and improving Oregon State squad. I believe they win both games, but once again fail to cover.
3) Florida: (19-2 SU, 9-7-1 ATS) - BUY
Here’s a fun fact. The Gators' average home win in SEC play is by more than 21 points per game. Their average road win has come by just seven points or less. Florida plays Missouri and Alabama, both at home this week…enough said.
4) Wichita State: (23-0 SU, 14-5-1 ATS) - SELL
The oddsmakers finally had had enough and started posting 20-plus numbers against the Shockers. As a result they went 0-2 ATS in their last two games. Expect more of the same until the public gets off their bandwagon. That being said…I like Indiana State to possibly win outright against WSU at home this week.
5) San Diego State: (19-1 SU, 10-7 ATS) - HOLD
I’ve said this before and it’s worth saying again, “The Mountain West conference is tough on the road.” The Aztecs go to Boise State to play a scrappy Broncos team. The oddsmakers will test your intelligence and “dangle the carrot” with a very small line, begging you to take San Diego State…but you’re smarter than that.
6) Villanova (20-2 SU, 15-5 ATS) - BUY
Coaches won’t admit it, but a loss (can be a good thing) allows a coach to get his teams attention. After their loss to Georgetown, Villanova bounced back nicely by beating Temple and Xavier. I expect the Wildcats to learn from their mistakes and cruise on Friday in a primetime battle against Seton Hall.
7) Cincinnati (21-2 SU, 10-7 ATS) - SELL
Despite their upset last week at Louisville, the Bearcats have a lousy ATS record (2-5) and continue to play close games. This weekend they travel to SMU. If you have not been following this Larry Brown team, you should be. Cincinnati will be lucky to get out of Dallas alive.
8) Kansas (16-5 SU, 10-10-1 ATS) - HOLD
The Jayhawks have been fickle on the road. On Tuesday, they travel to Waco for a matchup against the Baylor Bears, who will be looking to avenge their loss to Kansas two weeks ago. Bill Self’s team is a field goal favorite. Why so small? Something doesn’t seem right. I’m holding.
9) Michigan State (19-3 SU, 11-8-2 ATS) - SELL
The Spartans can’t seem to get healthy and may never be. Branden Dawson suffered a broken hand after slamming his hand down on a table in frustration during a film session, resulting in a 4-6 weeks recovery. Dawson was a key player in the Michigan State defense. This will have an impact. The Spartans are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in their last four. Tough game at Wisconsin set for Sunday.
10) Michigan (16-5 SU, 10-8-1 ATS) - BUY
After a nice 10-game winning streak, Michigan suffered a loss on Super Bowl Sunday to Indiana. Now they must pull themselves together and get ready for Nebraska on Wednesday at home before a tough road test at Iowa on Saturday.
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