MAC Betting Notes
March 9, 2014
By Marc Lawrence
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March 10, 12-15 (Opening Round games at campus sites of higher seeds...Remaining games at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland, OH)
PROJECTED FINAL FOUR: TOLEDO, BUFFALO, WESTERN MICHIGAN, AKRON
THE WAY WE SEE IT:
Like the Horizon League, and in hopes of ensuring a better chance to land an at-large bid, the MAC has re-arranged its postseason tournament where the division winners earn byes into the semis and the No. 3-4 seeds start in the quarters. That makes seeding the Final Four an easy task. The question is who wins?
What we know for sure is that it’s been 10 years since a West Division team has cut down the nets in this tourney. And the team from the West with the best chance is TOLEDO, who returns to the party after sitting out on the sidelines with an NCAA imposed suspension for low APR grades. The Rockets are 4-0 ATS the last four games in this event and 3-0 ATS the last three when taking points. UT dominated beatable opponents (18-1 SU versus sub .500 foes) but struggled in conference wars at the pay window (4-13 ATS at press time) this season.
Like Toledo, BUFFALO was one of five teams that returned 4 starters this season and that experience paid off for first-year head coach Bobby Hurley as the Bulls are 12-5 SU and 13-4 ATS in conference play at press time.
WESTERN MICHIGAN was the last team from the West Division to claim the crown in 2004, and they could be in position to do so again this year. A 9-1 SU closing run at press time, along with a 5-0 ATS mark as tourney favorites, makes the Broncos legit. AKRON, the defending champion, has made the finals each of the last 7 years and is 7-1 SUATS the last three years in this tournament. A 13-2 SU mark in its last fifteen MAC tourney games certainly deems the Zips worthy here.
THE SLEEPER: OHIO U
Like Akron, the Bobcats know the route to the title game, having made it there 3 of the last 4 years, while winning the crown two times in that span. Weak on the glass (#200 in the nation), OU makes up for its ability in games against sub .600 opponents, going 33-4 SU at press time under head coach Bill Wucznyski. That should get them out of the first round at to the ‘Q’, where anything can happen.
KEY TOURNAMENT BEST BET: PLAY ON BUFFALO AS A DOG
The Bulls have bagged the cash in 8 of their last 9 MAC meetings when taking points. They are also 5-1 ATS as a dog in this tourney. Hurley was adept as a dog in his playing career and the league has yet to catch up with his playbook. It all points to the points. Take ‘em if you see ‘em.
EXTRA TOURNEY TRENDS & NOTES
AKRON: 9-1 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 8-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 7-1 ATS L8, 5-1 ATS off DD ATS win, 0-3 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss…
BALL STATE: 6-1-1 ATS w/3+ days rest, 6-2-1 ATS vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-4 ATS with same-season double revenge, 1-4-1 ATS dogs off SU dog win, 3-11-1 ATS L15…
BOWLING GREEN: 4-1 ATS as favs vs opp off SU loss, 0-9 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 2-7 ATS off SUATS loss, 2-7 ATS w/same-season double revenge, 5-17 ATS L22…
BUFFALO: 4-0 ATS vs #2-3 seeds, 5-1 ATS dogs of 5 < pts, 5-2 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 2-6 ATS off DD SU win…
CENTRAL MICHIGAN: 5-1 ATS as favorites, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 4-1 ATS vs opp w/revenge, 1-5 AT as dogs < 8 pts, 1-4 ATS vs opp off SU fav loss…
EASTERN MICHIGAN: 4-0 ATS vs #1 seed, 7-1 ATS vs opp off DD SU win, 0-3 ATS w/same-season revenge, 1-8 ATS L9, 1-7 ATS away, 1-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss...
KENT STATE: 8-2 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 4-1 ATS off SU fav loss, 4-1 ATS as DD favs, 4-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 0-4 ATS as dogs < 6 pts...
MIAMI,OHIO: 4-1 ATS vs #1 seed, 1-5 ATS favs off BB SUATS wins, 2-6 ATS off SU dog win…
NORTHERN ILLINOIS: 3-0 ATS off BB SUATS losses, 5-2 ATS dogs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 0-2 ATS off SU dog win, 1-3 ATS as DD dogs…
OHIO: 6-1 ATS w/same-season single revenge, 11-2 ATS as dogs > 1 pt, 10-2 ATS off DD ATS win, 4-1 ATS vs opp off SU dog win, 1-6 ATS L7, 1-5 ATS as #3 seed…
TOLEDO: 5-1 ATS L6, 6-2 ATS vs opp off BB SU losses, 0-3 ATS vs opp w/revenge off SU dog win, 1-5-2 ATS off SUATS win vs opp off DD SU win...
WESTERN MICHIGAN: 5-1 ATS favs vs opp off BB SUATS wins, 7-2 ATS L9, 0-6 ATS vs opp off DD SU loss, 0-6 ATS dogs vs opp off BB SU wins, 0-4 ATS off SU dog win.
-- Favorites with same-season single revenge are 18-7 ATS…
-- Underdogs off a SU favorite loss are 6-1 ATS…
-- Teams with same-season double revenge are 15-31 ATS off a SU win and 1-7 ATS vs opp off SUATS loss…
-- #1 seeds are 9-1 ATS as favorites of 11 > pts…
-- #2 seed dogs are 2-8-1 ATS L11…
-- #3 seeds off a SU favorite loss are 6-0 ATS but 1-9 ATS off BB SUATS wins…
-- #6 seed dogs are 1-7 ATS L8 games…
-- #8 seed DD dogs are 3-9 ATS…
-- #9 seeds are 5-1 ATS off BB SUATS wins.
13-0 L5 Days, 24-2 Run, 8-1 GPlays
12-5 L4 Days, 23-9 L32, +6,158 TY
14-3 L17 G-Plays, 31-14 L45 Picks
2-0 LN, 8-1 L9 Guarantees
10-1 G-Play Run, 11-5 L16 Picks
4-0 L2 Days, 4-1 L5 Guarantees
5-2 L7, 8-3 L11, 59-31 Streak
13-4 L7 Days, 5-2 L7 G-Plays
4-2 L6 G-Plays, 18-9 L27 Picks
14-5 L6 Days, 3-0 L3 Totals
3-1 Sunday, 7-3 Picks, 16-7 G-Plays
6-1 L7 G-Plays, 26-14 L40 Picks
22-10 L32 Picks, 13-5 L18 G-Plays
+5,738 Totals, +3,186 Overall TY
7-3 L10 Totals, 15-7 L22 G-Plays
12-6 L18 Picks, 23-10 L33 G-Plays
19-8 Last 27 CBK Over/Unders
3-1 Yesterday, +2,200 This Year
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