Inside the Numbers - Sweet 16
March 27, 2014
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- Our win percentage probability has Dayton vs. Stanford as a true 50/50 game yet Stanford is a 3.5 point favorite. There was a similar situation in the round of 64 in Memphis vs. George Washington. Our percentages had each team with an equal 50% chance of winning and Memphis was a four point favorite (giving George Washington the line advantage. Memphis had just a one-point lead with 10 seconds remaining before knocking down four late free throws and covering). Certainly Stanford is from the bigger conference and had solid games knocking off New Mexico and Kansas. But don't forget that Dayton also knocked off Ohio State and Syracuse en route to this sweet 16 matchup. The line value is with Dayton here.
- According to our winning percentage probability, UConn has a slight advantage (52%-to-48%) of advancing over Iowa State. The Huskies are a two-point underdog in this matchup despite having the better probability to win. Our percentages would have slightly favored the Cyclones if they wouldn't have lost forward Georges Niang. The loss of Niang - who was third on the team in points, assists, and blocks - puts ISU at a slight disadvantage here despite the fact that they are favored.
- Florida has a 72% chance of advancing over UCLA and is just a 4.5 point favorite in the South region. In the West, Arizona has a similar 73% chance of advancing over San Diego State and is a rather heavy 7.5 point favorite over the Aztecs. Throw in the fact that San Diego State is one of the top defensive teams in the country (ranked 7th in KenPom's adjusted defensive ratings) and the fact that there's a familiarity from having already matched up with Arizona this year (lost by nine points but was a five point game with 30 seconds remaining) and there's definite line value with SDSU.
Sweet 16 Betting Notes
Florida vs. UCLA
- Florida remains the favorite in the field of 64 with an 18% probability to win the championship.
- According to Ken Pomeroy's possession data, the Gators' grinding defense holds opposing offenses to 20.2 seconds per possession, the 2nd longest in the NCAA.
- UCLA ranks 12th in adjusted offense efficiency, 10th in points per game, and 9th in field goal percentage. They average 15 seconds per offensive possession, among the 15 fastest teams in the country.
Dayton vs. Stanford
- The Cardinal held New Mexico to just 36.5% field goals and 4-of-21 from three point range. They then held Kansas to 32.8% field goals and 5-of-16 from three point range.
- Among Stanford's starters are a 6'11" center, a 6'10" power forward, a 6'7" small forward, and it brings 6'10" forward off the bench, forming one of tallest teams in the country.
- Dayton only has two players taller than 6'7" that receive notable playing time.
Virginia vs. Michigan State
- A lot of people felt Michigan State was under-seeded as a 4-seed and this game basically proves it. Whereas No. 1 seeds Florida & Arizona have 72% and 73% win probability over No. 4 seeds UCLA and San Diego State, respectively; No. 4 seed Michigan State has a 51% win probability over No. 1 seed Virginia here.
- MSU can score from all over the court. They shoot nearly 40% from three-point range as a team and they are just as good in transition as they are in the half-court.
- Virginia ranks among the top-10 best teams in opponents' effective field goal percentage, offensive rebounding rate, 2-point shooting and points per possession.
Iowa State vs. UConn
- The highest total of the sweet 16 is set in this game at 146.5.
- ISU lost forward Georges Niang (16.7 PPG) in the round of 64 but still scored 85 points against North Carolina without him.
- The Huskies made 20-of-44 three pointers and 40-of-48 free throws in back-to-back wins to get here. Guard Shabazz Napier is averaging 24.5 PPG through the two games
Arizona vs. San Diego State
- The lowest total of the sweet 16 is set in this game at 122.5.
- Arizona has the No. 1 adjusted defensive rating and they allow just .886 points per possession. They are No. 2 in opponents' true shooting percentage.
- San Diego State ranks 202nd in true shooting percentage on offense.
Baylor vs. Wisconsin
- Wisconsin's offense ranks 4th in adjusted efficiency and Baylor's ranks 6th.
- Baylor's zone limited Nebraska and Creighton to make just 9-of-45 (20 percent) attempts from three-point range.
- Wisconsin made 21-of-51 (41.1 percent) three point attempts in its two wins.
Kentucky vs. Louisville
- Kentucky ranks 5th nationally in free throws attempted per game and they are the 2nd best offensive rebounding team in the country.
- Louisville forces 17.4 turnovers per game, good for 2nd nationally. Kentucky turns it over 12.2 times per game - ranked 171st.
- Kentucky had +8 rebounds, one fewer turnover, attempted eight more free throws, and held Louisville to just 6-of-26 three-pointers in the first meeting this season - a seven point Kentucky win.
Tennessee vs. Michigan
- Tennessee ranks 3rd nationally in rebounding margin. Michigan ranks 175th.
- The Vols have won eight of the last nine (only loss to No. 1 Florida) and have covered seven of those games.
- Michigan makes 8.6 three pointers per game (15th nationally) on 39.8% efficiency beyond the arc (6th nationally).
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