In the Paint - Week 10
January 11, 2017
By Joe Williams
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Trouble Bruin Big East Clash
UCLA slipped up 89-87 in Oregon on Dec. 28, but they have rebounded with three straight victories. However, the Bruins have been struggling against the number lately, going 0-5 ATS over the past five games after a 9-0 ATS run from Nov. 20 to Dec. 17. After a favorite of 19 or more points, UCLA is just 2-5 ATS. Getting into league play isn't good for UCLA, as they're just 1-10 ATS in their past 11 league games. UCLA is also a dismal 1-5 ATS in their past six outings on the road. Remember that for UCLA's next two games at Colorado on Jan. 12, and at Utah on Jan. 14.
Top of the ACC
Florida State has ascended to the top of the Atlantic Coast Conference, and they'll remain on the top of the heap for the foreseeable future after blasting Duke 88-72 in a battle of Top 10 clubs in Tallahassee on Tuesday night. The Seminoles have now rattled off 12 consecutive victories, last tasting defeat Nov. 24 against Temple on a neutral site court. FSU has covered four in a row, and eight of their past 10 games. They're also a perfect 5-0 ATS in their past five instances as a favorite or 10 or fewer points. They have a big test at North Carolina on Saturday afternoon. FSU passed their first big road test of the season, winning on New Year's Eve at Virginia by a 60-58 count as nine-point underdogs.
Butler will head to Omaha on Wednesday for a Big East clash against Creighton. The Bulldogs have rebounded nicely with a three-game win and cover streak following a shocking loss at St. John's on Dec. 29. Butler enters 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games as an underdog, and 8-2 ATS in their past 10 league games. They're also 10-3-1 ATS in their past 14 games on the road. Creighton has been money as a home favorite, going 9-3 ATS in their past 12 games. They're also 22-7 ATS in their past 29 games as a favorite and 10-4 ATS in their past 14 overall at home. Like Butler, Creighton has been cover kings within the league, going 21-9-1 ATS in the past 31 Big East affairs. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six in this series, with the 'under' 4-1 in the past five.
Oregon has been on a roll to kick off the Pac-12 schedule, going a perfect 4-for-4 straight up and against the number. That includes road wins at Washington and Washington State in the past two outings. In fact, Oregon has won the past three games by an average of 24.7 points per game. Next up will be a game against Oregon State on Saturday, a team playing horrible basketball this season. The Beavs have started out 0-4 in the Pac-12, and they're just 1-9 straight up over the past 10 outings. Their poor offense is the reason for their struggles, and they won't be able to do much against an Oregon scoring defense which ranks 36th in the natiuon (64.5 PPG) while holding the opposition to just 38.8 percent from the field, which is 20th in the country.
Mary, Mary...Why You Buggin'?
St. Mary's has been on quite the roll, winning eight straight games since their only setback of the season at home against Texas-Arlington back on Dec. 8. However, the Gaels have been hurting bettors at the window, posting a rather marginal 3-3-1 ATS mark over the past seven games after opening the season 4-1 ATS in the first five games. St. Mary's hopes to stay hot on the road, as they head to Portland first before a showdown at Gonzaga. The Gaels are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in four road outings this season, and the 'under' is 3-1 in those games away from home.
Other Teams to Watch
Fordham heads to Davidson on Wednesday looking to turn things around. They have dropped three in a row, and nine of the past 10 since a 5-1 start. The Rams are also just 0-7-1 ATS over the past eight games.
Idaho State has been a good team to pick on lately. They have dropped four in a row straight up, and they're 0-5 ATS over the past five outings. If you want to make money, the 'under' is also 6-0 in their past six games, as the Bengals rank 321st in the nation in scoring offense at just 65.4 points per game.
Long Beach State has rattled off victories in four of their past six games, but they're struggling against the number. The 49ers are 0-5 ATS over the past five outings.
Northeastern of the Colonial Athletic Association will host Drexel Thursday night, as they look for their eight straight win. During the streak they have a win at Michigan State, as well as at Harvard, Oakland and Vermont. They also pushed aside the Dragons of Drexel by a 75-70 score in overtime on Jan. 2, just covering a 4 1/2-point number. The Huskies are 6-0 ATS in their past six outings, and the 'under' has hit in four of their past five.
Northern Iowa has been a fairly dependable team in the past few years for bettors. UNI is dependable this season, too, but for different reasons. The Panthers have dropped six straight overall, and they're 0-7 ATS over the past seven games while going 1-11 ATS over the past 12 outings.
Tulane has dropped five straight after their 80-59 setback against Memphis on Sunday, and they have posted a dismal 0-4 ATS mark over the past four games, and a 1-7 ATS record over the past eight. Total bettors have been cashing in on the Green Wave, too, as the 'over' is 5-2 over the past seven outings.
UTEP has really struggled in Conference USA play, dropped their first three league games. The Miners have dropped 12 in a row since their last win against Western Michigan way back on Nov. 18, and UTEP is 0-6 ATS over the past six outings.
Wofford hosts Furman Saturday in SoCon play. The Terriers haven't been ticking off many victories lately, dropping three in a row, and four of the past five. However, Wofford has been money against the spread, going 9-1 ATS over the past 10 outings.
7-3 L10, 33-14 Run, +3,089 TY
12-4 L16 G-Plays, +2,607 TY
11-5 L16, 30-12 Run, 13-2 G-Plays
3-0 L3 G-Plays, +4,462 This Year
7-3 L10 G-Plays, +4,074 Picks TY
15-7 L22 Totals, +2,884 Overall TY
6-1 L7, 24-10 L34 G-Plays
29-12 L41 Picks, 20-10 L30 G-Plays
3-1 Thursday, 14-6 L20 G-Plays
3-1 Last Sat., 7-2 L9 Totals
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